Gyroscopic Investing

Mdraf wrote:

Pointedstick wrote: I'm just trying to make sure we're on the same page since you were using "productivity" and "output" interchangeably for a few posts.

The point I was making didn't actually concern productivity. It's clear that it's increasing. What I was saying is that output may be flat. If you have fewer people working each of whom produces more (which is what the chart shows), it's not clear that this means that total output is actually rising.

This is in relation to your assertion that output must be being absorbed because it is increasing; what if it's not actually increasing?

Ok you are right it's semantics. Output = Production (not productivity). My bad.  I see what you are saying now.  That it's possible that much fewer people are making fewer things with less materials and the total output might not be up at all.  Agreed. That's possible.

doodle wrote:

Mdraf wrote:

Pointedstick wrote: I'm just trying to make sure we're on the same page since you were using "productivity" and "output" interchangeably for a few posts.

The point I was making didn't actually concern productivity. It's clear that it's increasing. What I was saying is that output may be flat. If you have fewer people working each of whom produces more (which is what the chart shows), it's not clear that this means that total output is actually rising.

This is in relation to your assertion that output must be being absorbed because it is increasing; what if it's not actually increasing?

Ok you are right it's semantics. Output = Production (not productivity). My bad.  I see what you are saying now.  That it's possible that much fewer people are making fewer things with less materials and the total output might not be up at all.  Agreed. That's possible.

But real GDP is also increasing...which would seem to imply that we are in fact producing more.... Over the last twenty years, I don't think we can argue that we have seen increasing production and consumption of material goods. More recently it seems like a lot of this GDP growth can be attributed to the disproportionate FIRE sector and that an increasing share of this GDP growth was flowing to a small percentage of the population. Increasingly and unsustainable private debt growth has a lot to do with keeping the system together over this time period by bridging the gap between increasing output and decreasing wage growth.

I see elementary school pickup football games as a metaphor for our present economy. In every class there were a few dominant players who would make or break a team. They were strong and athletic and they basically took charge of the game. Then at the other end there were the last people to be picked. They had to do something, but if you were a smart team captain you would find a position for them where they were kind of out of the way and where they couldn't do too much damage. Most of the time they would wander around and pick daisies or look for bugs while you played the game. Nevertheless, at the end of the game they still were proud to share in their teams victory regardless of whether they had done anything at all. Our economy is going to increasingly look like this I think.