Gyroscopic Investing

FWIW, I find the conventional conservative and liberal political narratives in this country to be equally distasteful.

The liberal company line bugs me because it places such faith in government to make the right decisions about how society's resources should be allocated.

The conservative company line bugs me because it is so hypocritical in the way it attacks liberals for being in favor of "big government."

I agree that there are probably more right leaning people here than left leaning people, but I hope that the forum provides a platform for whatever point of view someone wants to share without fear of being shouted down by people on the other side of an issue.

I certainly find the economic discussions regarding QE and monetary theory here to be far more balanced than any political stereotype would indicate.  On a fundamentally financial forum, that's what really counts.

The rest is just entertainment.  ; )

rocketdog wrote:

Ad Orientem wrote:This is California. It's a one party state (always a bad thing)

I lived in CA for 13 years, and everybody always thinks it's a heavily blue state, yet here is the pattern of governors over the past 70 years:

Code: Select all

Democrat	2011-
Republican	2003-2011
Democrat	1999-2003
Republican	1991-1999
Republican	1983-1991
Democrat	1975-1983
Republican	1967-1975
Democrat	1959-1967
Republican	1953-1959
Republican	1943-1953

That's a total of 48 years in office for the Republicans, but only 22 years in office for the Democrats.  That's more than a 2-to-1 ratio! 

People think CA is a liberal bastion, but that's only true in highly visible pockets like L.A. and San Francisco.  Overall it's a red-leaning state.  After all, Prop 8 never would have even gotten on the ballot in a blue-dominant state, let alone get passed.

While the historical figures are interesting they don't have much bearing on modern California. The Dems currently have super-majorities in both houses of the state legislature and the Governor is a Democrat, albeit a moderate. Likewise the last couple of GOP Governors would have been considered center-left Democrats in much of the rest of the country.This is at least in part the consequence of changing population demographics. But suggesting that California is anything other than a blue state because there are some sparsely populated corners of red is like saying that Texas isn't really all that red, just look at Houston!

The Republican Party in California is an endangered species.

Ad Orientem wrote:
But suggesting that California is anything other than a blue state because there are some sparsely populated corners of red is like saying that Texas isn't really all that red, just look at Houston!

I think you mean "Austin". 

KevinW wrote:

rocketdog wrote: People think CA is a liberal bastion, but that's only true in highly visible pockets like L.A. and San Francisco.  Overall it's a red-leaning state.  After all, Prop 8 never would have even gotten on the ballot in a blue-dominant state, let alone get passed.

Yeah, I've tried to make that point here too, with little success. LA and San Francisco are very left-leaning, but outside those two metroplexes California is a conservative Western state.

It's easy to underestimate the pull of large urban areas. Between LA + suburbs, San Jose, San Francisco, and the rest of the SF bay area, that's 18 million people, or half the entire state population. These areas are massively, overwhelmingly liberal areas. These places send liberals to the state legislature with 75% majorities year after year. California's conservative areas are not nearly conservative enough to make up for any of this, which is why, as Ad Orientem pointed out, the legislature has a Democratic supermajority and our Republican governors would look like center-left in any other state.

I remember looking at maps of election results by counties, and you could pick out most cities within most states, just by looking for the small blue spots.  It works pretty much everywhere except New England (my neighbors Vermont and Maine are crazy rural hippies who vote Democrat every time), Utah, and the Great Plains.

I made a scatter plot showing the Democrat-Urban correlation by state:

Pointedstick wrote:

KevinW wrote:

rocketdog wrote: People think CA is a liberal bastion, but that's only true in highly visible pockets like L.A. and San Francisco.  Overall it's a red-leaning state.  After all, Prop 8 never would have even gotten on the ballot in a blue-dominant state, let alone get passed.

Yeah, I've tried to make that point here too, with little success. LA and San Francisco are very left-leaning, but outside those two metroplexes California is a conservative Western state.

It's easy to underestimate the pull of large urban areas. Between LA + suburbs, San Jose, San Francisco, and the rest of the SF bay area, that's 18 million people, or half the entire state population. These areas are massively, overwhelmingly liberal areas. These places send liberals to the state legislature with 75% majorities year after year. California's conservative areas are not nearly conservative enough to make up for any of this, which is why, as Ad Orientem pointed out, the legislature has a Democratic supermajority and our Republican governors would look like center-left in any other state.

Pointedstick wrote: It's easy to underestimate the pull of large urban areas. Between LA + suburbs, San Jose, San Francisco, and the rest of the SF bay area, that's 18 million people, or half the entire state population. These areas are massively, overwhelmingly liberal areas.

I've always found the Silicon Valley democrats to be a curious breed, as IMO their behavior often opposes their stated politics.  Just one example -- You'll never see a software engineer seek to organize a union in Silicon Valley, as that would destroy their own marketability in a very competitive and lucrative engineering marketplace.  And if that ever happened, the startup entrepreneurs would flee in droves.

The immigrants I knew in Silicon Valley tended to vote Republican, while the natives voted heavily Democratic (or at least stated so publicly).  Honestly, I think at some point politics just becomes a social thing for people rather than an issue-driven choice. 

Tyler wrote:

Pointedstick wrote: It's easy to underestimate the pull of large urban areas. Between LA + suburbs, San Jose, San Francisco, and the rest of the SF bay area, that's 18 million people, or half the entire state population. These areas are massively, overwhelmingly liberal areas.

I've always found the Silicon Valley democrats to be a curious breed, as IMO their behavior often opposes their stated politics.  Just one example -- You'll never see a software engineer seek to organize a union in Silicon Valley, as that would destroy their own marketability in a very competitive and lucrative engineering marketplace.  And if that ever happened, the startup entrepreneurs would flee in droves.

The immigrants I knew in Silicon Valley tended to vote Republican, while the natives voted heavily Democratic (or at least stated so publicly).  Honestly, I think at some point politics just becomes a social thing for people rather than an issue-driven choice.

At some point?  I tend to think that this is what it is at its core. 

The exception is when you see an actual well-thought-out issue debate take place.  It often much more resembles arguing why your team is better.

Pointedstick wrote:

KevinW wrote:

rocketdog wrote: People think CA is a liberal bastion, but that's only true in highly visible pockets like L.A. and San Francisco.  Overall it's a red-leaning state.  After all, Prop 8 never would have even gotten on the ballot in a blue-dominant state, let alone get passed.

Yeah, I've tried to make that point here too, with little success. LA and San Francisco are very left-leaning, but outside those two metroplexes California is a conservative Western state.

It's easy to underestimate the pull of large urban areas. Between LA + suburbs, San Jose, San Francisco, and the rest of the SF bay area, that's 18 million people, or half the entire state population. These areas are massively, overwhelmingly liberal areas. These places send liberals to the state legislature with 75% majorities year after year. California's conservative areas are not nearly conservative enough to make up for any of this, which is why, as Ad Orientem pointed out, the legislature has a Democratic supermajority and our Republican governors would look like center-left in any other state.

National Republicans from 20+ years look like center left Democrats now.

Some might even say its not Californians leaving the Republican Party, but the Repubs leaving Californians. Why the various reforms of election laws to try to get more centrists politicians (from both parties.) Open primaries. Ranked choice voting. ....

Lots of fiscally centrist/conservative, environmentalists, socially liberal folks around (although not sure why its conservative to not regulate commerce and to legislate the private lives of citizens....)

Most states, including California, look like a microcosm of the US to me.  Like fractals, you can zoom in on a 2012 presidential map and see the islands of blue in seas of red. 

Ad Orientem wrote:The Republican Party in California is an endangered species.

Not so fast: that's what everybody said about the Whigs and Tories.  Oh, wait...