Short Equity - Deflation / Short LTT - Growth?

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Gosso
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Re: Short Equity - Deflation / Short LTT - Growth?

Post by Gosso »

SmithBrook wrote: Yes, I agree with you on shortening duration.  I think that is a sensible first step along a continuum as rates compress.  By effectively lifting the deflation hedge in that way, IMO it may also be appropriate to start modifying equity exposure.  Flipping LTTs and equity to outright shorts is perhaps furthest out on the continuum.
Sounds good.  But by shortening the bond duration you still have plenty of deflation protection.  You are mainly sacrificing the explosive upside of LTT when rates fall.  I see no reason why long term rates couldn't fall to 1% if there was another stock market crash (that'd be a 50% price appreciation).  If this occurred then I'd move all bonds to STT.  The only upside at that point would be negative nominal rates, but this seems impossible on the long end.
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