Do you think a SHTF scenario happens in your lifetime?

[Ad Orientem]

I'm curious who here believes there will be a SHTF scenario during their lifetime.  For those that don't know, the acronym stands for Sh*t Hits The Fan.

Obviously there are varying levels of SHTF scenarios that could happen, and for many different reasons.  

For the purposes of this poll, do you believe there will be WIDESPREAD, significant societal/economic/monetary/technological collapse, where your own food, ammo, water, etc would be required for survival.  Since there are so many varying levels of SHTF, please include a quick description of how significant it would be, the duration of such an event before a return to normal. And whether you are prepared for such a scenario.

My guess is there are a lot on this board that do believe this will happen, or at least more than the average investor site.  If you've gravitated towards the PP, you probably don't accept that stocks will ALWAYS go up, and that standards of living only go in one direction.

Using the criteria you have laid out here and in some of the later comments, I would say it is exceedingly unlikely. Localized temporary SHTF situations are always possible. But a massive long term break down in societal order, rule of law, no government, collapse in basic services and means of production? No. I think it is so unlikely I am not worrying about it, and I tend to worry about a lot of crazy things.

Why is it so unlikely? Because power abhors a vacuum. A short term temporary emergency could certainly occur. But we are not going to revert to the Dark Ages absent some sort of apocalyptic event. People are not just going to decide to stop making things or running power plants. And if a government collapses another steps in fairly quickly.

Are there some places where this has happened? Yes, in smaller underdeveloped countries. But I cannot recall it occurring in any large industrialized nation state in modern history. Even during the worst of two world wars we did not experience the SHTF scenario described above. Things were tough in the the war devastated nations. But there was little in the breakdown of order even if there were disruptions in many public services. There was rationing but food was distributed. When Hitler shot himself the Allies quickly took over running Germany. Ditto Japan after they surrendered. German society did not breakdown during the hyperinflation of the early 20's.

A major pandemic, think modern day Black Death, could do it. And of course if someone actually pushes the button and we start incinerating whole cities by the dozen then all bets are off. Otherwise I'd say the answer is a pretty firm no. Human nature is not such that we are going to all just regress to the law of the jungle with everyone for himself for any length of time. That is the realm of Hollywood fantasy films.

[Benko]

What about the EMP scenario i.e. detonation of a nucs high over the atmosphere? 

[Ad Orientem]

What about the EMP scenario i.e. detonation of a nucs high over the atmosphere? 

I think that falls under the heading of nuclear war.

[MediumTex]

I once heard that the key to being a good worm farmer is being able to think about the worms a lot without the worms ever actually getting into your brain.

I think that the same is true when it comes to pondering SHTF.  It's fun until the fear begins to grip you.  After the fear takes hold the worms are often already inside your skull.

[clacy]

At the end of the day, I feel like I'm probably too lazy to prepare for a truly significant SHTF scenario.

[Pointedstick]

I once heard that the key to being a good worm farmer is being able to think about the worms a lot without the worms ever actually getting into your brain.

I think that the same is true when it comes to pondering SHTF.  It's fun until the fear begins to grip you.  After the fear takes hold the worms are often already inside your skull.

I totally agree, because it really is fun! You get to go camping, shoot guns, build cabins, grow gardens, assemble solar panels, and buy knives, flashlights, and other cool gadgets--all the while being able to pretend that you're preparing for some kind of apocalyptic event that fulfills all your manly provider/protector fantasies. But yeah, you have to keep it at that. If you really think about it, life after that kind of event would stink.

[Ad Orientem]

[stone]

i think the #1 form of preparedness is the ability to think (critical thinking/reason).. it allows you to ponder and be prepared ahead of time for as many realistic possibility as you can without getting overly caught up in the fear or the fantasy, (much in the way the PP does for investing). coming in at a very close second would be "situational awareness" the ability to comprehend and instantly adapt your behavior to the circumstances you are in, walking through a SHTF world in a "Disney land vacation" mind set will not keep you alive, even a "mean streets" mind set may not apply to all SHTF environments, being fluid and adaptable is a bottomless resource for survival, even long after the food and ammo run out being able to adapt and adjust can still keep you going..

I guess the most important piece of SHTF preparedness is to get on well with your neighbours.

[MachineGhost]

IT IS 5 MINUTES TO MIDNIGHT

2012: "The challenges to rid the world of nuclear weapons, harness nuclear power, and meet the nearly inexorable climate disruptions from global warming are complex and interconnected. In the face of such complex problems, it is difficult to see where the capacity lies to address these challenges.”? Political processes seem wholly inadequate; the potential for nuclear weapons use in regional conflicts in the Middle East, Northeast Asia, and South Asia are alarming; safer nuclear reactor designs need to be developed and built, and more stringent oversight, training, and attention are needed to prevent future disasters; the pace of technological solutions to address climate change may not be adequate to meet the hardships that large-scale disruption of the climate portends.

EDIT: Apparantely, the Doomsday Clock can run backwards.  What a bunch of B.S..

IT IS 2 MINUTES TO MIDNIGHT

1953: After much debate, the United States decides to pursue the hydrogen bomb, a weapon far more powerful than any atomic bomb. In October 1952, the United States tests its first thermonuclear device, obliterating a Pacific Ocean islet in the process; nine months later, the Soviets test an H-bomb of their own. "The hands of the Clock of Doom have moved again," the Bulletin announces. "Only a few more swings of the pendulum, and, from Moscow to Chicago, atomic explosions will strike midnight for Western civilization."

[BearBones]

At the end of the day, I feel like I'm probably too lazy to prepare for a truly significant SHTF scenario.

Most of us are. Unless you are going to devote tremendous time and energy to this, you cannot prepare well for economic collapse, anarchy, pandemic, and nuclear accident/war. But some things are beneficial to your life and the environment, even if with a rosy forecast. I have a nice organic garden, and that benefits my health. I want to live in a smaller, energy efficient home which can function off of the grid. It is more convenient and less expensive to stockpile food in bulk. Learning to camp and live in the wilderness for a few days to weeks would be fun. And we would all benefit by being better connected to our families and communities.

[BearBones]

Otherwise I'd say the answer is a pretty firm no. Human nature is not such that we are going to all just regress to the law of the jungle with everyone for himself for any length of time. That is the realm of Hollywood fantasy films.

Doesn't have to be "law of the jungle." Any large scale, sustained, significant regression in economic prosperity will cause mayhem, IMO. Going from current conditions in the US to the economic and political conditions of such places as Pakistan, Libya, or Syria would be SHTF for most of us. I am not a historian by any reach, but hasn't the sustained growth and relative peace we have experienced during the past century been an aberration rather than the norm? What was the norm one, two, or three thousand years ago?

[WildAboutHarry]

Aside from asteroids, nuclear war, or a resurgence of disco, I think a pandemic with a highly lethal bug is the most likely SHTF generator.  We have had one before, though, with about 3% of the worlds population killed in the "Spanish" flu epidemic of 1918.  Very serious, but not exactly TEOTWAWKI.

Of course pandemics are a favorite method in SHTF novels.  Earth Abides, The Stand, Survivors, et al.  And I guess zombies are often the result of pandemics.

My grandfather and great uncles in 1918.  Coincidentally, my grandfather's name was Harry.  He is on the right.

[Ad Orientem]

Otherwise I'd say the answer is a pretty firm no. Human nature is not such that we are going to all just regress to the law of the jungle with everyone for himself for any length of time. That is the realm of Hollywood fantasy films.

Doesn't have to be "law of the jungle." Any large scale, sustained, significant regression in economic prosperity will cause mayhem, IMO. Going from current conditions in the US to the economic and political conditions of such places as Pakistan, Libya, or Syria would be SHTF for most of us. I am not a historian by any reach, but hasn't the sustained growth and relative peace we have experienced during the past century been an aberration rather than the norm? What was the norm one, two, or three thousand years ago?

While I readily concede that an economic calamity (extreme depression, civil war, hyperinflation) could precipitate a major decline in the standard of living, the sort of long term chaos being described on this thread and in the original post is almost impossible for me to imagine sans an apocalyptic event. I am a student of history. And nothing like that has occurred in any developed country as a consequence of an economic or purely military event that I am aware of.

For an SHTF scenario using the criteria from the original post one would probably require a massive loss of population such that a long term economic and governmental dislocation would be unavoidable owing to not having enough people with the skills to provide certain essential services or fill critical jobs. Again I think we are back to a Black Death type event (which actually did create something of an SHTF scenario) or a major nuclear war. In the latter case I hope they drop the first bomb right on top of me. I have read enough to know that I don't want to be around to see the aftermath of that.

But again I don't believe in anarchy or that 300 million people are going to stop making things or forget how to run a power plant because of a war or economic calamity. Natural disasters or extreme war conditions can cause severe localized dislocations. But these are inherently temporary. Human nature and the evidence of the last 1500 years of human history I think pretty conclusively back up my view on this.

I know of no incident in the history of human civilization that resulted in that kind of chaos for any real length of time. The closest event was probably the Black Death. If you lose around half the global population in a short period of time you are going to have a major and long term socio-economic dislocation.

But as long as people know how to make their lives better by making things and keeping the lights on, they will work together to do it. And if a government fails, another will take its place. Power abhors a vacuum.

[BearBones]

I am a student of history. And nothing like that has occurred in any developed country as a consequence of an economic or purely military event that I am aware of...

But as long as people know how to make their lives better by making things and keeping the lights on, they will work together to do it. And if a government fails, another will take its place. Power abhors a vacuum.

Thanks. I guess it all depends on how SHTF is defined in terms of duration and scope, doesn't it? What was it like to live in Europe during the time of the decline of the Roman Empire (real question, not rhetorical)? And 4 things are unique about modern times that may make "back-testing" unreliable, IMO: 1) Population. Modern dependance on petroleum to sustain the current world population is like the Irish dependency on potatoes. And, this time around, there is no place for an excess of 5 billion (or even 1) to peacefully go. 2) Interdependence. It used to be that a country or group of countries could undergo calamity and others were unaffected, but this is no longer the case. 3) Weapons of mass destruction. 4) Historically high world-wide standard of living. People do not give up power or convenience easily. Americans think that it is Armageddon if they have to give up their cable, let alone grow their own food and move into crowded houses with others.  Threaten that, and we will vehemently blame the opposite political party, then the Chinese, Muslims, and Mexicans, then our neighbors. The public assumes that Pax Americana and the exponential growth of standard of living afforded by both innovation and cheap oil will go on forever, but it cannot. Power vacuum? No. But a power that make us wish for the days of either Obama or Romney? Easily!

[dualstow]

But we are not going to revert to the Dark Ages absent some sort of apocalyptic event.

And even the Dark Ages were not as dark as previously thought.

This reminds me, though. Has anyone read Riddley Walker by Russell Hoban?
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Riddley_Walker

[craigr]

Yep. Had had a hard time swallowing LTTs (but I did it anyway for Medium Tex). And I am not much of a gun person, but I am gonna get an AR-15 and Glock (for Craigr).

I am happy to have helped in your personal arming needs. Get some spare magazines and keep a good bit of ammo on hand. It's easy to buy in bulk currently and you will use a lot when practicing.

FWIW. Just like the Permanent Portfolio, I try to maintain a flexible is better than static approach to emergency planning. I don't know what the emergency will be, if it will even happen, or what the scale and type of response will be needed. So my emergency plans are pretty basic but do not assume I'm going into the bomb shelter to stay put for months:

1) Know how to use a firearm for self defense. Make sure your first one is a pistol for easy concealment and personal protection when out and about. Just because there is an emergency doesn't mean you'll be holed up in your house bunker. The second weapon should be a rifle because the standoff distance is tremendous. The ability to reload quickly is also welcome.

2) Have some food and water on hand at least for a few weeks if you had to. Natural disasters could easily shut down water supplies and food delivery for some time until authorities and the community have time to respond. In Christchurch, NZ's earthquake the water system immediately failed for many people for instance. Having ability to get clean water was important. FWIW. You can store some water in jugs, but also remember that your hot water tank easily holds 50+ gallons in most homes. It can be tapped by the drain spigot at the bottom.

3) I would also keep around ancillary items like headlamps, camp stove for cooking, a generator with fresh fuel, etc. I'd also get a hiking water filter like a Platypus GravityWorks or Sawyer Squeeze filter. They are light and can filter out questionable water quickly. Other hiking gear like a good tent, sleeping bag, etc. would be good to have if you had to leave your home and emergency shelter was not available.

4) I'd want to have a ham radio ability for emergency communications if one is able.

5) A good working vehicle that can carry supplies if you have to leave the area.

I'm sure I'm forgetting things. But the main point is I'd want some supplies to last me and my family where I live if I have to stay there, but I'd also want the ability to move some of those supplies into my car and leave if that is also required. I'd also want a way to protect myself. Finally, I would want to live in a community where you can trust your neighbors and know they aren't going to turn into total predators during an emergency that presents them an opportunity.

[notsheigetz]

As I said in an earlier post, the actuarial tables say I have about 17 years left (although I expect a good bit more because of my still-alive parents longevity) so my thoughts on this subject might be different if I was younger. (and also I was sent off to war when I was younger and was left with no stomach for it so that also factors into my thinking).

If we ever get to the point in America where we have to store up food and defend ourselves against our neighbors who might want to take it from us, I can hardly see that as a life worth living and fighting for.

I live in Florida and don't even make these kinds of preparations for acts of God, aka hurricanes.

Yep. Had had a hard time swallowing LTTs (but I did it anyway for Medium Tex). And I am not much of a gun person, but I am gonna get an AR-15 and Glock (for Craigr).

I am happy to have helped in your personal arming needs. Get some spare magazines and keep a good bit of ammo on hand. It's easy to buy in bulk currently and you will use a lot when practicing.

FWIW. Just like the Permanent Portfolio, I try to maintain a flexible is better than static approach to emergency planning. I don't know what the emergency will be, if it will even happen, or what the scale and type of response will be needed. So my emergency plans are pretty basic but do not assume I'm going into the bomb shelter to stay put for months:

1) Know how to use a firearm for self defense. Make sure your first one is a pistol for easy concealment and personal protection when out and about. Just because there is an emergency doesn't mean you'll be holed up in your house bunker. The second weapon should be a rifle because the standoff distance is tremendous. The ability to reload quickly is also welcome.

2) Have some food and water on hand at least for a few weeks if you had to. Natural disasters could easily shut down water supplies and food delivery for some time until authorities and the community have time to respond. In Christchurch, NZ's earthquake the water system immediately failed for many people for instance. Having ability to get clean water was important. FWIW. You can store some water in jugs, but also remember that your hot water tank easily holds 50+ gallons in most homes. It can be tapped by the drain spigot at the bottom.

3) I would also keep around ancillary items like headlamps, camp stove for cooking, a generator with fresh fuel, etc. I'd also get a hiking water filter like a Platypus GravityWorks or Sawyer Squeeze filter. They are light and can filter out questionable water quickly. Other hiking gear like a good tent, sleeping bag, etc. would be good to have if you had to leave your home and emergency shelter was not available.

4) I'd want to have a ham radio ability for emergency communications if one is able.

5) A good working vehicle that can carry supplies if you have to leave the area.

I'm sure I'm forgetting things. But the main point is I'd want some supplies to last me and my family where I live if I have to stay there, but I'd also want the ability to move some of those supplies into my car and leave if that is also required. I'd also want a way to protect myself. Finally, I would want to live in a community where you can trust your neighbors and know they aren't going to turn into total predators during an emergency that presents them an opportunity.

[BearBones]

I'm sure I'm forgetting things. But the main point is I'd want some supplies to last me and my family where I live if I have to stay there, but I'd also want the ability to move some of those supplies into my car and leave if that is also required. I'd also want a way to protect myself. Finally, I would want to live in a community where you can trust your neighbors and know they aren't going to turn into total predators during an emergency that presents them an opportunity.

Good stuff, as always. You used to have an Amazon link for survival gear on your CR site. Best way to find?

[dualstow]

If we ever get to the point in America where we have to store up food and defend ourselves against our neighbors who might want to take it from us, I can hardly see that as a life worth living and fighting for.

So true. Maybe the very young can hold on and build a new society, but even though I'm only middle-aged I'd rather take a dirt nap than live in a world of daily chaos and hostility.

[stone]

This is a TV program that shows that however impoverished we become, we can still live well if we have those peoples' attitude:
http://www.channel4.com/programmes/kevi ... ing-it/4od

As Kevin enters Dharavi he finds open sewers, rats and hazardous chemicals everywhere. But this is also a highly organised place, with thousands of tiny industries and a strong sense of community and spirit.

Of course they could live even better if they sorted out their sewerage system etc but I guess it is easy to think that from a priviledged position.

[MediumTex]

This is a TV program that shows that however impoverished we become, we can still live well if we have those peoples' attitude:
http://www.channel4.com/programmes/kevi ... ing-it/4od

As Kevin enters Dharavi he finds open sewers, rats and hazardous chemicals everywhere. But this is also a highly organised place, with thousands of tiny industries and a strong sense of community and spirit.

Of course they could live even better if they sorted out their sewerage system etc but I guess it is easy to think that from a privileged position.

Isn't that what they've been doing in Cuba for decades?

[stone]

This is a TV program that shows that however impoverished we become, we can still live well if we have those peoples' attitude:
http://www.channel4.com/programmes/kevi ... ing-it/4od

As Kevin enters Dharavi he finds open sewers, rats and hazardous chemicals everywhere. But this is also a highly organised place, with thousands of tiny industries and a strong sense of community and spirit.

Of course they could live even better if they sorted out their sewerage system etc but I guess it is easy to think that from a privileged position.

Isn't that what they've been doing in Cuba for decades?

Medium Tex, I wasn't saying that it was OK or sensible to live like people do in Dharavi, I was just saying that getting on happily with your neighbours is something that needn't be abandoned just because everything else has collapsed. Also many people fail to get on well with their neighbours even when everything is relatively good and that is a pointless waste.

[Storm]

Interesting paper in which the researchers show how global food prices predict riots and unrest in poor countries.  Be sure to look at the graph in the middle of the article.

http://arxiv.org/pdf/1108.2455v1.pdf

The paper was published in 2011, but they predict new global food riots in 2012 or 2013 based on rising food prices.

[BearBones]

This is a TV program that shows that however impoverished we become, we can still live well if we have those peoples' attitude:
http://www.channel4.com/programmes/kevi ... ing-it/4od

Very true. The difference between this and SHTF/anarchy is attitude. And attitude largely depends on perception of well-being. Perception of well-being, in turn, depends on whether safety, lifestyle, and socio-economic status are increasing, stagnant, or decreasing.

Bottom line: I bet that the people of Dharavi see opportunity for growth. Contrast this to what would happen if those in more affluent communities/cities/countries had to "regress" to this point...

[stone]

This is a TV program that shows that however impoverished we become, we can still live well if we have those peoples' attitude:
http://www.channel4.com/programmes/kevi ... ing-it/4od

Very true. The difference between this and SHTF/anarchy is attitude. And attitude largely depends on perception of well-being. Perception of well-being, in turn, depends on whether safety, lifestyle, and socio-economic status are increasing, stagnant, or decreasing.

Bottom line: I bet that the people of Dharavi see opportunity for growth. Contrast this to what would happen if those in more affluent communities/cities/countries had to "regress" to this point...

I didn't get the impression that they did see any opportunity for ever escaping poverty. Rather they seemed to all realize that they were all in it together and they needed to make the best of how things were. They also seemed to have the self-respect to ensure that they acted well for their neighborhood etc.

I guess in many cases people in affluent parts of the world did pull together when faced with chaos during WWII. When you hear stories about the bombing of UK cities, looting etc doesn't seem to have been an issue. The recent earthquake in Japan is another example of people coping well with adversity.