sophie wrote:
The 16 rules are nicely updated. Yes, I did catch that about HB doing his own programming - most impressive for that era! Anyone here remember how you used to have to code in binary using punch cards? CRT terminals were new and exciting in the early/mid 80's.
Oh yeah! I don't go back quite far enough to have done this myself but every time I check in modern code into a safe, simple version control system, I'm glad I'm not one of those poor programmers from back in the day that could have a gust of wind scatter their punch cards across the parking lot.
sophie wrote:I didn't get that same warm/fuzzy feeling upon reading William Bernstein's review on Amazon - the impression I got was, this is a real dog of a portfolio and no one will stick with it for long, I wouldn't come near it, but sure, have at it. Not sure he got the part about not being able to predict the future. I'm glad that wasn't a universal impression but all the same, hopefully someone of equal stature in the investment world will put in another review.
Sure, that's very fair. I, too, would prefer that Bernstein don the leather chaps with the rest of us and adopt this excellent portfolio. But I always enjoy reading a thoughtful,
accurate critique so much more than yet another "Bad timing -- gold is too high! Interest rates have nowhere to go but up!" market timing-based attack. Sadly, Bernstein is one of the few pros that looks more deeply than these tired old canards and hits upon a genuine trap to watch out for. Namely, the envy trap where during a time of prosperity we listen to our obnoxious late-90s biotech neighbor who claims to have gotten rich with some ten-bagger stock pick.
That urge to keep up with the Joneses, if followed, can put you in the poor house right beside the Joneses. By staying aware of this trap, I think that many (hopefully most) of us will recognize this urge when it comes and just continue to enjoy our safe, boring returns.
Currently, the Permanent Portfolio is in the interesting position of having its safe, boring returns
crush most other portfolios. I like to mentally prep myself for when the day comes that these safe, boring returns seem... well, safe and boring again.