Yep Dutch, Sorry. no CAGR. I used this just as an benchmark against my own portfolio (10% cash, 20 % gold, 30 % LT Bonds, 40 % Equities // average yield 6,4 % so slightly better).
I dont have inflation figures but I think you can google them. My guess is around 2% for this period. So real return will be around 4 %.
It will no make you rich but that's is the HB philosophy, you make money with almost no effort and with sleepwell nights.
I've got data going back to 2001. Most of my data are yearly index returns from MSCI and Barclays indices. I've used some data from the old Marc de Mesel website.
The indices I've used are the MSCI Emu, Barclays Euro Government 15-30 and Barclays Euro Government 1-3.
Of course it will, the government has pumped billions into the economy. That money will also go out again, so inflation and thus the cash yield rates will increase. It may be next year or over 10 years but it will happen.
And when inflation is rising it is very hard to control it so it may be quite destructive the next decade. (Just keep your Gold portion safe:) ).
"In the simplest terms, inflation occurs when there's too much money in the system. On the flip side, deflation occurs when there are too few dollars in circulation. Robert Kiyosaki".
These are results from my real 4x25 portfolio of Euro shares with Euro and EM share ETFs, bond ETFs, gold ETFs and cash. Not very different from the US Vanilla PP figures of -2.24, +10.10, -2.99 and +5.9% for the same four years.
2013 -3.04%
2014 +12.39%
2015 +1.42%
2016 +7.08
Average 4.30%
2017 +2.1% so far, improving since the summer.
PS (off topic): I also have a separate portfolio of US and UK blue chip dividend shares, which in spite of the present US market highs is down 3.5% in Euros since 1 Jan 2017.
tarentola wrote:These are results from my real 4x25 portfolio of Euro shares with Euro and EM share ETFs, bond ETFs, gold ETFs and cash. Not very different from the US Vanilla PP figures of -2.24, +10.10, -2.99 and +5.9% for the same four years.
2013 -3.04%
2014 +12.39%
2015 +1.42%
2016 +7.08
Average 4.30%
2017 +2.1% so far, improving since the summer.
PS (off topic): I also have a separate portfolio of US and UK blue chip dividend shares, which in spite of the present US market highs is down 3.5% in Euros since 1 Jan 2017.
hi!!!
4,3% and what about inflation?
Do you think to change to a more aggressive lazy portfolio?
It does not beat official inflation by much, and perhaps does not beat real inflation at all. But multiple-year periods of underperformance are not unusual.
Do you think to change to a more aggressive lazy portfolio?
Such as...? If you have a concrete suggestion and some evidence that it works or has worked, I would be delighted to know about it. I have backtested or consulted portfoliocharts.com for quite a few variants but cannot find anything that beats the PP for reasonable returns and limited drawdowns.
The poor 2017 Euro performance of the US and UK dividend share portfolio is largely due (I hope) to the dollar's having lost 12% of its value relative to the Euro since 1 Jan, while the pound lost 4%.
It does not beat official inflation by much, and perhaps does not beat real inflation at all. But multiple-year periods of underperformance are not unusual.
Do you think to change to a more aggressive lazy portfolio?
Such as...? If you have a concrete suggestion and some evidence that it works or has worked, I would be delighted to know about it. I have backtested or consulted portfoliocharts.com for quite a few variants but cannot find anything that beats the PP for reasonable returns and limited drawdowns.
The poor 2017 Euro performance of the US and UK dividend share portfolio is largely due (I hope) to the dollar's having lost 12% of its value relative to the Euro since 1 Jan, while the pound lost 4%.
Small update on my EU-PP. Been invested in the PP for almost a year now and still very happy with it.
Made two small changes:
I've replaced Lyxor EuroMTS 15y+ (LYXF) with iShares € Govt Bond 20yr Target Duration (E20Y).
E20Y uses higher quality bonds (No bonds from Spain/Italy) and has a higher duration of 19 years.
I expect this to bring the volatility of my bonds closer to stocks and gold.
Another small change I've made is adding a small allocation to the MSCI World Index within my stock allocation.
I like the extra diversification but I'm hesitant to add too much currency risk to my portfolio.
WhiteElephant wrote:Small update on my EU-PP. Been invested in the PP for almost a year now and still very happy with it.
Made two small changes:
I've replaced Lyxor EuroMTS 15y+ (LYXF) with iShares € Govt Bond 20yr Target Duration (E20Y).
E20Y uses higher quality bonds (No bonds from Spain/Italy) and has a higher duration of 19 years.
I expect this to bring the volatility of my bonds closer to stocks and gold.
Another small change I've made is adding a small allocation to the MSCI World Index within my stock allocation.
I like the extra diversification but I'm hesitant to add too much currency risk to my portfolio.
My online savings account still has a positive yield: 0.35%.
All short-term euro treasuries have negative yields. The iShares 0-1y euro etf for example has a YTM of -0.5%.
WhiteElephant wrote:My online savings account still has a positive yield: 0.35%.
All short-term euro treasuries have negative yields. The iShares 0-1y euro etf for example has a YTM of -0.5%.
WhiteElephant wrote:My online savings account still has a positive yield: 0.35%.
All short-term euro treasuries have negative yields. The iShares 0-1y euro etf for example has a YTM of -0.5%.
So that’s a difference of almost 1 percent.
hi
is that theortically correct?
Can we use CD's instead without more RISK?
Thanks
I think savings account is OK, especially in his situation.
CDs are definitely not, though could be dealt with with some fraction of all cash.
WhiteElephant wrote:My online savings account still has a positive yield: 0.35%.
All short-term euro treasuries have negative yields. The iShares 0-1y euro etf for example has a YTM of -0.5%.
So that’s a difference of almost 1 percent.
hi
is that theortically correct?
Can we use CD's instead without more RISK?
Thanks
I think savings account is OK, especially in his situation.
CDs are definitely not, though could be dealt with with some fraction of all cash.
