Gyroscopic Investing

All three of the volatile asset classes (gold, stocks and LT Bonds) can, and historically have gone through very long brutal bearish markets.  US Stocks peaked in Sept of 1929 and the first in a series of crashes occurred the following month.  By July 1932 the market had lost 90%(!) of its value from its pre-crash peak.  The market would not recover in purely nominal terms until 1954 (25 yrs after the crash of 29).  And that does not adjust for inflation.  Likewise anyone buying a hypothetical index fund in the late 1960's would have suffered annualized inflation adjusted losses of around 4% by 1983.  Persons buying LT bonds from roughly 1962 until 1982 also suffered steep losses from currency debasement and the eventual inflation of the 1970's.  And gold peaked in early 1981 at $850 oz. during the height of the great inflation.  Gold then entered a roughly two decade bear market until it finally bottomed in 1999 at around $250 oz.  Anyone who bought gold then is STILL taking a loss on it 30 yrs later when adjusted for inflation.

MachineGhost wrote: A simple method for timing gold bullion that historically outperforms buy and pray is to check the price of gold in the four major currencies (USD, EUR, GBP, JPY) at the end of each month and if all are showing a positive gain, then buy the gold, otherwise wait until next month.  However, I do not know how that compares to DCA into gold in a bull market.  As long as real interest rates remain negative, gold will remain in a bull market.

MG

MG, I am interested in exploring this. Can you recommend a website and/or search string to determine the price of gold in the major currencies?

thx, web_diva

web_diva wrote:

MachineGhost wrote: A simple method for timing gold bullion that historically outperforms buy and pray is to check the price of gold in the four major currencies (USD, EUR, GBP, JPY) at the end of each month and if all are showing a positive gain, then buy the gold, otherwise wait until next month.  However, I do not know how that compares to DCA into gold in a bull market.  As long as real interest rates remain negative, gold will remain in a bull market.

MG

MG, I am interested in exploring this. Can you recommend a website and/or search string to determine the price of gold in the major currencies?

thx, web_diva

http://www.kitco.com/gold_currency/inde ... rt=hardCur