Gyroscopic Investing

buddtholomew wrote: 4% loss = 8K USD saved if you're correct.
8K on a 1M TLT investment= 0.8%
Hardly seems worthwhile at all.
This is why I completely gave up on market timing.
Risk/reward is too low.

Fading the trend risky. Going with trend not. It's at extreme points that you have to be careful so that you don't go all in at a top or sell all out at a bottom. It's at the in-between where trends change as opposed to at extreme points of mean reversion. But all potential trend changes start out as an extreme point mean reversion, but you don't know if it a forebearer of a trend change ahead of time unless you look at other variables besides just price and which have a historical record of actually working. Don't do this on gut feel.

No matter how often I trim long-term treasuries, they continue to rise in value. Powerful little bugger...

These markets are truly remarkable to me. Just when you believe things are coming to a head, the balloon slowly deflates and the baseline is reset "new normal". As long as you own something this year you are experiencing the wealth effect with a rise in stocks, bonds and gold.

I didn't notice this until last month when I was backtesting some PP variants But PP usually has an extremely good year following a bad year. It appears this year may continue that trend.