Gyroscopic Investing

Blindly buying the index is well established as better than picking. There's an AI narrative bubble but it could take years to pop, and then there will be another narrative that distorts some other sector.

But yeah, people are throwing money at stocks because an iBond is 4% and M2 is 7%. I hate buying gold because its stupid but millions of people are competing online now you cant stock pick like Buffett

equities and gold has beaten equities and bonds for 25 years now over almost every time frame .

not so stupid

Gold isnt an investment, it doesnt do work like a house or a tractor. Its savings, and it doesnt go up, its dollar going down.

But there arent good alternatives if you want global diversification

mathjak107 wrote: ↑Tue Aug 05, 2025 3:08 am equities and gold has beaten equities and bonds for 25 years now over almost every time frame .

not so stupid

Would you buy gold at today's prices?

boglerdude wrote: ↑Tue Aug 05, 2025 4:27 am Gold isnt an investment, it doesnt do work like a house or a tractor. Its savings, and it doesnt go up, its dollar going down.

But there arent good alternatives if you want global diversification

Yes, it does not give any returns. But it is a diversifier and something that does go up during times of stress. It is not an inflation fighter.

yankees60 wrote: ↑Tue Aug 05, 2025 7:37 am

mathjak107 wrote: ↑Tue Aug 05, 2025 3:08 am equities and gold has beaten equities and bonds for 25 years now over almost every time frame .

not so stupid

Would you buy gold at today's prices?

absolutely.

in effect anyone holding gold or any investment is actually buying in each day .

you will be up or down in dollars which are all yours for the taking exactly the same amount whether you already own it or are first buying it.

it’s always so silly when others tell someone not to buy something , yet they own this asset themselves and are keeping it in play at each days price

mathjak107 wrote: ↑Tue Aug 05, 2025 10:43 am in effect anyone holding gold or any investment is actually buying in each day .

I disagree, but I'll grant your point when it comes to paper/e-gold since you can easily swap for another piece of paper.

mathjak107 wrote: ↑Tue Aug 05, 2025 10:43 am ..
in effect anyone holding gold or any investment is actually buying in each day .

you will be up or down in dollars which are all yours for the taking exactly the same amount whether you already own it or are first buying it.

it’s always so silly when others tell someone not to buy something , yet they own this asset themselves and are keeping it in play at each days price

I have read that sentiment many times over the years, but there’s just something subtly different about being up 170% (down from 190%) versus being down 20%.

Still, I realize that’s behavioral finance and not logical.

dualstow wrote: ↑Tue Aug 05, 2025 1:51 pm

mathjak107 wrote: ↑Tue Aug 05, 2025 10:43 am ..
in effect anyone holding gold or any investment is actually buying in each day .

you will be up or down in dollars which are all yours for the taking exactly the same amount whether you already own it or are first buying it.

it’s always so silly when others tell someone not to buy something , yet they own this asset themselves and are keeping it in play at each days price

I have read that sentiment many times over the years, but there’s just something subtly different about being up 170% (down from 190%) versus being down 20%.

Still, I realize that’s behavioral finance and not logical.

I'm with mathjak on this one.

Decades ago I said to a friend who was an investment advisor that each day when you portfolio remaiins static .. it's the same as selling all and buying it that day.

Haven’t you ever heard of taxes, Vin?

Seriously, though. For a broad market fund, I don’t know how to capture the value without holding long term.
(Maybe the analogy could be made for individual stocks?)

There are some on b’heads who just stop buying new stocks at some point. All new money goes to cash or other non-stock investments.

A type of Sunk-cost fallacy. eg I think gold is too expensive and would tell someone not to buy. Meanwhile I hold because Im committed as if it were a house you cant easily unload. Paper assets are liquid, you're buying back in everyday

dualstow wrote: ↑Tue Aug 05, 2025 1:51 pm

mathjak107 wrote: ↑Tue Aug 05, 2025 10:43 am ..
in effect anyone holding gold or any investment is actually buying in each day .

you will be up or down in dollars which are all yours for the taking exactly the same amount whether you already own it or are first buying it.

it’s always so silly when others tell someone not to buy something , yet they own this asset themselves and are keeping it in play at each days price

I have read that sentiment many times over the years, but there’s just something subtly different about being up 170% (down from 190%) versus being down 20%.

Still, I realize that’s behavioral finance and not logical.

one can be up 170% in another asset , sell it swap it for gold today ….and be down 20% in gold , yet it’s no different then had you owned gold up 170% and it fell the same 20% .

balances are the same in both cases .

so mentally we may feel better having a gain and being down 20% but financially there is no difference as your balance and net worth fell by the same 20% in the investment either way.

so the reality is we all are buying in at today’s price if we keep an asset in play regardless if we already own the asset or first buying it

I know, but I’m not a day trader.
And the only way I know to succeed is to stay in and rebalance.
So far, so good.

dualstow wrote: ↑Tue Aug 05, 2025 8:44 pm Haven’t you ever heard of taxes, Vin?

Seriously, though. For a broad market fund, I don’t know how to capture the value without holding long term.
(Maybe the analogy could be made for individual stocks?)

There are some on b’heads who just stop buying new stocks at some point. All new money goes to cash or other non-stock investments.

I made all my equity investments in January 2003. Not a penny more in any way since. All new investments since have gone to money market. Yet recently I was at 53% equity / 47% fixed.

Is that in taxable? So you’re just getting interest/dividends? That can’t be a great real return, right?
On the other hand, if you were already like 60 years old…

dualstow wrote: ↑Wed Aug 06, 2025 8:56 am Is that in taxable? So you’re just getting interest/dividends? That can’t be a great real return, right?
On the other hand, if you were already like 60 years old…

Taxable only has Treasury Money Market (VUSXX).

Both Roth and Traditional have additional VUSXX and they the equity is in both of those places.

VUSXX has been in 4+% Range since about late 2022. Always safe. Never a loss like have had for equities.

I own that, too. Love it. But 2003-2023? Interest wasn’t that great, was it?

dualstow wrote: ↑Wed Aug 06, 2025 10:33 am I own that, too. Love it. But 2003-2023? Interest wasn’t that great, was it?

Definitely not during the financial repression that lasted 14 years from 2008 to 2022. Getting $40 a month interest on $100,000, if even that much.

But it turned out to be a form of rebalancing given that I ended up with more equity than fixed.

yankees60 wrote: ↑Wed Aug 06, 2025 11:27 am

dualstow wrote: ↑Wed Aug 06, 2025 10:33 am I own that, too. Love it. But 2003-2023? Interest wasn’t that great, was it?

Definitely not during the financial repression that lasted 14 years from 2008 to 2022. Getting $40 a month interest on $100,000, if even that much.

But it turned out to be a form of rebalancing given that I ended up with more equity than fixed.

Wasn't even that good during the periods of ZIRP like after the GFC and during the pandemic. SEC yield on VUSXX was .01%. A $100K balance got you $10 bucks a YEAR. Many of the money markets just closed their doors. Vanguard got rid of Prime MM.

boglerdude wrote: ↑Mon Aug 04, 2025 10:23 pm Blindly buying the index is well established as better than picking. There's an AI narrative bubble but it could take years to pop, and then there will be another narrative that distorts some other sector.

There is intentionally putting your money in stocks and buying the index, but then there is what this interview is about which is the ESIRA changes that forced plans to auto put people into target date funds based on age. Where is new investors used to pick the funds in their 401k, and would tend to go more conservative, now they are auto placed into a TD fund that is 90% stocks. This guys theory is that is part of the cause of the stock bubble. I think he has a point.

My question about the notion that holding a stock (or gold) is like buying in every day is: what does that do for the average investor? And the beginning investor?

It’s an interesting mental exercise, but if I were just starting out, I wouldn’t know what to do with that information. It’s too abstract.

The idea that you can succeed by holding a broad basket of stocks, long term, on the other hand is useful. It’s not impressive; it’s not sexy. It’s not even fun. But, it happens to work.
- - -
Almost forgot about Prime MM. Good fund while it lasted.

the idea is that whether you own something or not , if you wouldn’t recommend that someone just buying in should buy it because it’s valuation is to high , then you continuing to hold it should follow the same logic

Yep

Equal weight or maybe a more thoughtful approach is FNDB or FNDX. They own Total US Market or S&P500 respectively, but the weights are based on company fundamentals.

Yes, they have underperformed during the bubble formation period. If you want to avoid the bubble, you have to avoid it. You can't get the bubble gains and somehow not be in the bubble.