Just the Facts: S&P's $2 Trillion Mistake

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Gumby
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Re: Just the Facts: S&P's $2 Trillion Mistake

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doodle wrote:Now, when the government comes in and makes future promises that each of the 4 people is entitled to 1/2 a pizza, it doesn't change the fact that the economy can still only produce 1 pizza. Even if the government doubles the money supply so that each person has enough at previous prices to afford 1/2 a pizza, the economy still only produces one pizza.
What about productivity? Why is Simpleland only able to produce one pizza for eternity? If their government spends money wisely — on pizza education and pizza research — you don't think they'll be able to produce two pizzas or five pizzas?

MMT merely describes a framework for fiat money. Governments can either spend their endless supply of money wisely (cheese research, pizza sauce technology, pizza education) or they can spend money recklessly (attacking countries rich in pizza sauce, cheese and topping deregulation, or tax cuts to the richest of pizza makers). If they spend money recklessly, inflation can become a very big problem. If they spend money wisely, inflation can remain low, productivity can rise (i.e. more pizzas) and prosperity can have a chance to thrive.
doodle wrote:They will soon realize that it is impossible to divide one pizza in half between 4 people.
If productivity doesn't increase, for the reasons I outlined above, that's definitely a possibility. But, there's also an international pizza marketplace with other pizzas and pizza supplies for sale if we should run out of pizza or pizza sauce. If those foreign pizza makers are willing to hand over pizza resources and pizza technology in exchange for Simpleland's fiat paper money — that can only be spent on Simpleland pizzas — let them.
doodle wrote:This in turn leads to inflation.
You have a flawed assumption that a larger money supply automatically leads to inflation. That's not necessarily true. Our money supply has been expanding for decades, but inflation is dead in the water. Even Harry Browne said that inflation is not related to the supply of money, but rather the demand for money. In other words, if people are saving their money, or using it to pay down debt, that doesn't lead to inflation. The only time it leads to inflation is when people are saturated with money and they spend it.

This is why disposable income is so closely related to inflation...

[align=center]Image[/align]

If people have money to spend — and aren't saving it or paying down debt — then you will likely see inflation. But, MMT shows that the government would need to tax that disposable income (VAT, sales tax, etc) to destroy the excess money supply and prevent inflation. Taxing certain irresponsible things and avoiding taxes in other areas can help guide the spending to more beneficial areas of the economy.
doodle wrote:If the situation continues, interest payments on debt exceed govt tax revenues. At that point govt is forced to monetize debt which has further negative consequences on price stability.
Why exactly does it matter if the interest payments on debt exceed government tax revenues? You haven't explained that. If there's an endless money supply it doesn't matter how much the government has to pay in interest payments. You seem to think that taxes actually pay for things. For all practical purposes, the money you pay in taxes goes into a big trash can (i.e. the money is destroyed). When there's an endless money supply, taxes are just another mechanism to control the money supply.

When we were reserve constrained, taxes were very important (lest we'd drain our gold reserves). But, now taxes are just a monetary mechanism. We could have no taxes and the government would still be able to afford to pay its interest and all of its pizza education and pizzacare.... until there was too much disposable income, and then they would have to tax to avoid inflation.
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Re: Just the Facts: S&P's $2 Trillion Mistake

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Some great posts in this thread.  Gumby just gave me a "eureka" moment with his analysis that yes, indeed the S&P downgrade is based on the risk of political instability in the US rather than any fiscal situation.

Although this is unprecedented, I do think it might definitely be wise for them to at least consider the risk of future political willingness to pay the national debt obligations.

For example, FICO and some consumer credit ratings agencies already have computer algorithms to predict the likelihood of a strategic default, and proactively downgrade a consumer's credit rating before they default.

In a political stalemate, there is a very high likelihood that that the US congress might decide to do the equivalent of a "strategic default" where they pick and choose which debt obligations they will pay based on a political agenda.  Just like a family might decide to pay the mortgage but not pay the credit card bills, or to default on the mortgage and save some money because Dad lost his job, our congress seems to have a willingness to default on certain debts out of either libertarian fantasy or a desire to cut entitlement programs.

Wouldn't it be wise for a ratings agency, if they have knowledge of this willingness to strategically default, to take that into account?
Last edited by Storm on Mon Aug 08, 2011 10:27 am, edited 1 time in total.
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Re: Just the Facts: S&P's $2 Trillion Mistake

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Storm wrote:Although this is unprecedented, I do think it might definitely be wise for them to at least consider the risk of future political willingness to pay the national debt obligations.
Sure, they can certainly consider it as one factor — which is what S&P was originally going to when they had the $2 Trillion error in their baseline calculations. They had planned to show (flawed) economic reasoning and political infighting as the two reasons why they were downgrading the debt. When the Treasury showed them the $2 Trillion error, they simply removed the entire economic section from their announcement! So, can you justify a downgrade only on the perception of what political rhetoric might be in the future? I mean, that's quite a speculation. What other speculations should S&P be using in their rating decisions? How much healthcare senior might need? How many wars we might fight? How high unemployment might go? How many stimulus plans we might pass?

Again, I think their downgrade would have been justified if political infighting was an additional factor in their judgement. But, when S&P removed the economic section from their downgrade announcement, they lost a lot of credibility (not that they had that much to begin with). Their $2 Trillion error was embarrassing. And their $4 Trillion roadmap was nothing short of political lobbying.
Storm wrote:For example, FICO and some consumer credit ratings agencies already have computer algorithms to predict the likelihood of a strategic default, and proactively downgrade a consumer's credit rating before they default.
Consumers have reserve restraints to think about. Governments have no such restraints. It's illogical for a government to strategically default. Not to say it can't happen, but how could one possibly begin to quantify what Tea Party reps might do? When push came to shove, they still raised the debt ceiling.
Storm wrote:Wouldn't it be wise for a ratings agency, if they have knowledge of this willingness to strategically default, to take that into account?
Do they have this knowledge? If they do, I hope they report it and bring it out in the open. That's not what I saw. I saw speculation on the willingness to strategically default. As we all know speculation is a very risky business.
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Re: Just the Facts: S&P's $2 Trillion Mistake

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Gumby wrote:
Storm wrote:Wouldn't it be wise for a ratings agency, if they have knowledge of this willingness to strategically default, to take that into account?
Do they have this knowledge? If they do, I hope they report it and bring it out in the open. That's not what I saw. I saw speculation on the willingness to strategically default. As we all know speculation is a very risky business.
I think when you have politicians from both sides posturing and actually making public statements or posting budgets that cut certain programs, this knowledge definitely becomes public knowledge and not speculation.  Just my 2 cents.
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Re: Just the Facts: S&P's $2 Trillion Mistake

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Storm wrote:
Gumby wrote:
Storm wrote:Wouldn't it be wise for a ratings agency, if they have knowledge of this willingness to strategically default, to take that into account?
Do they have this knowledge? If they do, I hope they report it and bring it out in the open. That's not what I saw. I saw speculation on the willingness to strategically default. As we all know speculation is a very risky business.
I think when you have politicians from both sides posturing and actually making public statements or posting budgets that cut certain programs, this knowledge definitely becomes public knowledge and not speculation.  Just my 2 cents.
Then why do we need credit rating agencies to parse public statements? What are they telling us that we can't already discern from the Op-Ed page of any newspaper? Forget data from the CBO and the Treasury...Maybe we should just have the WSJ rate our debt?  ::)
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Re: Just the Facts: S&P's $2 Trillion Mistake

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Gumby wrote: Then why do we need credit rating agencies to parse public statements? What are they telling us that we can't already discern from the Op-Ed page of any newspaper? Forget data from the CBO and the Treasury...Maybe we should just have the WSJ rate our debt?  ::)
It's interesting you say this, the credit ratings, in order to protect themselves from liability against enraged MBS holders, have said their ratings are just "Editorial opinions, and are protected by the 1st amendment."

I think we should just start treating the ratings agencies like the news.  Unfortunately most cable news is about as trustworthy as Rupert Murdoch himself, which is to say, not very much.  Perhaps we just realize that these guys are newseditors and their opinions should carry no more weight than a trashy cable show or tabloid daily.
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Re: Just the Facts: S&P's $2 Trillion Mistake

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Storm wrote: I think we should just start treating the ratings agencies like the news.  Unfortunately most cable news is about as trustworthy as Rupert Murdoch himself, which is to say, not very much.  Perhaps we just realize that these guys are newseditors and their opinions should carry no more weight than a trashy cable show or tabloid daily.
I think that's a great idea.  Since we know that the news is nothing but pure entertainment based loosely upon actual events, it makes perfect sense that a media company like McGraw Hill would want all of its divisions (including S&P) to jazz things up a little bit to make them more entertaining.

I predict that S&P in the future will become the FoxNews of the ratings agencies.

What puzzles me is why serious people have any respect for what people like this (both the news and the ratings agencies) have to say.  Maybe it's just trying to understand the internal logic of an artificial fantasy-based system, sort of like the entire financial sector.
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Re: Just the Facts: S&P's $2 Trillion Mistake

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OK, last time, I promise..  ;D

[quote=Deven Sharma, CEO S&P, Inside Job, 56:37]S&P's ratings express our opinion. They do not speak to the market value for securities, the volatility of it's price, or its suitability as an investment.
[/quote]

Just because I found that one of the most ridiculous and hypocrite things ever said by a CEO talking about his business...

Which in turn makes me think of this quote:

[quote=The Hitchhiker's Guide to the Galaxy]The Hitchhiker's Guide to the Galaxy defines the marketing division of the Sirius Cybernetics Corporation as "a bunch of mindless jerks who'll be the first against the wall when the revolution comes," with a footnote to the effect that the editors would welcome applications from anyone interested in taking over the post of robotics correspondent.
Curiously enough, an edition of the Encyclopaedia Galactica that had the good fortune to fall through a time warp from a thousand years in the future defined the marketing division of the Sirius Cybernetics Corporation as "a bunch of mindless jerks who were the first against the wall when the revolution came."[/quote]
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Re: Just the Facts: S&P's $2 Trillion Mistake

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Storm wrote:I think we should just start treating the ratings agencies like the news.  Unfortunately most cable news is about as trustworthy as Rupert Murdoch himself, which is to say, not very much.  Perhaps we just realize that these guys are newseditors and their opinions should carry no more weight than a trashy cable show or tabloid daily.
I completely agree. It's just a little problematic when there are requirements for Money Market Funds and Pension Funds to hold certain levels of AAA assets. I suspect something will have to be done about those requirements.
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Re: Just the Facts: S&P's $2 Trillion Mistake

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Meanwhile... someone just flew a plane over the offices of Standard & Poor's with a banner that says:

[align=center]THANKS FOR THE DOWNGRADE. YOU SHOULD ALL BE FIRED.[/align]

http://www.observer.com/2011/08/airplan ... -be-fired/
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Re: Just the Facts: S&P's $2 Trillion Mistake

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That is hilarious! Sometimes it's good to be rich!
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Re: Just the Facts: S&P's $2 Trillion Mistake

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I think I'm going to re-watch "Idiocracy."

It may have just been ahead of its time.

See the photo below.  Could it have been foreshadowing Obama's current bus tour?  (That's Joe Biden in the sidecar seat.)

Image
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Re: Just the Facts: S&P's $2 Trillion Mistake

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President Camacho from the movie "Idiocracy":

Image

President Obama from the documentary "Idiocracy":

Image

The media reports on the smartest man in the world from the movie "Idiocracy":

Image

The media reports on the smartest man in the world from the documentary "Idiocracy":

Image
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Re: Just the Facts: S&P's $2 Trillion Mistake

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"Unfortunately most cable news is about as trustworthy as Rupert Murdoch himself, which is to say, not very much."

Funny, I was going to say pretty much the same thing about General Electric, CNN, CBS, ABC, NBC, Huffington, Soros, PBS, NPR, NY Times, Wash Post, etc. Now those are truly trustworthy sources!
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Re: Just the Facts: S&P's $2 Trillion Mistake

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Reub,

I will agree with some of your list, but I see CNN as at least being close to real news.

And David Gregory alone is enough to give me some shred of respect for NBC... a shred I tell you.
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Re: Just the Facts: S&P's $2 Trillion Mistake

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Reub wrote: "Unfortunately most cable news is about as trustworthy as Rupert Murdoch himself, which is to say, not very much."

Funny, I was going to say pretty much the same thing about General Electric, CNN, CBS, ABC, NBC, Huffington, Soros, PBS, NPR, NY Times, Wash Post, etc. Now those are truly trustworthy sources!
Reub, I only used Rupert because he seems to own a lot of media outlets and he always has a pattern of turning them into the trashiest tabloid fodder possible.  Your list seems to be a "liberal media" hit list of some type.  You can easily leave GE, CNN, CBS, ABC, NBC on there, but personally PBS and NPR are some of the last outlets that do REAL journalism left.

PBS and NPR do not have a political slant, unless you consider reality to have a liberal bias, which some do.  ;D
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Re: Just the Facts: S&P's $2 Trillion Mistake

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moda0306 wrote: Reub,

I will agree with some of your list, but I see CNN as at least being close to real news.

And David Gregory alone is enough to give me some shred of respect for NBC... a shred I tell you.
CNN is close to real news, but then you get that witch Nancy Grace on there and consider that out of a 24 hour news cycle easily 1/3rd of the coverage is for "missing white girls" or other such tabloid fodder.  It's frankly disgusting but those "cute innocent little (white) girl kidnapped by a mysterious stranger" stories get more ratings so they just run those for hours on end, and then they'll throw in a 30 second blurb about Libya, or some real news.

Also, have you ever noticed that they never cover missing kids of any other race than white?  It makes you wonder... surely kids of other races are sometimes kidnapped or disappear.  It's like the Casey Anthony trial - nothing gets the ratings up more than "cute innocent white girl hacked to bits and found in a swamp."
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Re: Just the Facts: S&P's $2 Trillion Mistake

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Nancy Grace is a fool.

I agree that she alone brings down CNN as legitmate news.
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Re: Just the Facts: S&P's $2 Trillion Mistake

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Gumby wrote:Yes. We're saying the same thing. Except that I'm saying that rating agencies aren't supposed to rate future political emotions.
...
Sure it's a default on entitlements. But, cutting a program is not a default on Treasury Bonds. Why should S&P care what programs are cut five years from now? S&P is supposed to be rating our debt, not our programs. That's what lobbyists do.
...
Wrong. That's exactly why they deserve a AAA rating. There's no credit risk! Ask Warren Buffet. Ask anyone who knows how a bill is paid. On top of that, there is a huge demand for Treasury Bonds. Treasury Bonds are still the world's safest investment.

The Treasury showed S&P actual hard data how the government was going to fund the foreseeable future — using Treasury Bond issuance alone. S&P ignored the data, laid out an agenda, and based its rating solely on the potential for political infighting in the future. That's never been done before. How does a rating agency get to decide what emotions Congress may have in the future? Please don't tell me that a rating agency should be judging future political emotions now. That's just crazy.
Why should any sovereign that does not have bonds denominated in foreign currencies not receive AAA then?   Heck, by your definition, Greece should be AAA - the only way they would default would be if some European politicians made a political decision not to bail them out (oops, they did default though). There is no mathematical reason that all sovereigns who denominate bonds in their own currency will default - and yet they do...

P.S. Quoting Warren Buffet on S&P isn't a good source given he invested in a competing rating agency - and he is a hypocritical sack of **** in general anyway.
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Re: Just the Facts: S&P's $2 Trillion Mistake

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fnord, "There is no mathematical reason that all sovereigns who denominate bonds in their own currency will default - and yet they do..."

I thought that the ONLY example ever of a sovereign default on on free floating (ie genuinely sovereign) currency was Japan in WWII defaulting on bonds held by Japan's enemies as an act of war. All the other examples are of pegged currencies. That is why Greece and Ireland (that are not sovereign) pose a default risk whilst Iceland posed an exchange rate risk "only" (so holding Icelandic bonds was no "more" risky than holding Icelandic cash but of course either would have resulted in a wipe out in 2008). It would make more sense if the rating agencies rated the chances of devaluations rather than "default" when dealing with free floating currency sovereign bonds.
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Re: Just the Facts: S&P's $2 Trillion Mistake

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Stone and Fnord,

The biggest default risks usually come from countries that don't have their own central bank and are required by law to denominate their debt in some other currency that they can't freely print.  Argentina and Greece are good examples of this.

For countries that have their own central bank and currency, there is probably no default risk, since they can just print as much as they like.  I don't believe Zimbabwe ever defaulted.

This is why I think the Euro is ultimately doomed.  No single country controls the central bank and it seems that they've created a moral hazard, by which any member nation can rack up huge amounts of debt and hold a gun to their own head, daring the ECB to let them pull the trigger.
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Re: Just the Facts: S&P's $2 Trillion Mistake

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Storm, I think the dumb design of the Euro is even more profound than that. It invites speculative attack. Shorting bonds will increase interest payments and kick off an a spiraling decline. If a country for some reason has to be part of a Euro style set up, then I guess the only prudent option is to not have any government debt and to run balanced budgets. Would an alternative for a Euro country be to only issue debt in the form of non-trade-able index linked certificates to individual citizens? That would make running long term trade imbalances impossible within the Euro but perhaps that is a good thing.
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Re: Just the Facts: S&P's $2 Trillion Mistake

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Running a country without any debt is also a bad idea, since it limits your economy to whatever credit expansion the private sector can provide.  I think the US system is still the best available.
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