Gyroscopic Investing

yeah and how's that permanent demographic shift for the eternal D majority working out as hispanics and blacks continue to start voting more for R's over the past few elections?

After 2004 I thought compassionate conservatism would cement a long term majority given the natural conservatism of asian and hispanic immigrants....and then they lost the popular vote every presidential election since. Obama's coalition of the ascendent ain't coalescing. And any other straight line demographic assumption of the future will certainly go crooked.

Also...I saw a Tweet that said only 27% of the Gen Z populace even bothered to vote. IDK if accurate but a lot of not much ain't much.

I do think we get imprinted young and it sticks with us. No doubt I've been a Republican mostly due to Reagan (1st Pres. vote) and no matter what, I still find myself leaning toward Hondas and Fords (my first vehicles that I bought).

It's weird and I know it's weird.

Kbg wrote: ↑Tue Nov 15, 2022 12:49 pm Also...I saw a Tweet that said only 27% of the Gen Z populace even bothered to vote. IDK if accurate but a lot of not much ain't much.

Yes but what % of their ballots were collected? That's the game now, apparently.

Kbg wrote: ↑Tue Nov 15, 2022 12:49 pm
Also...I saw a Tweet that said only 27% of the Gen Z populace even bothered to vote. IDK if accurate but a lot of not much ain't much.

I do think we get imprinted young and it sticks with us. No doubt I've been a Republican mostly due to Reagan (1st Pres. vote) and no matter what, I still find myself leaning toward Hondas and Fords (my first vehicles that I bought).

It's weird and I know it's weird.

27% is correct. 2nd highest in last 30 years.

https://thehill.com/changing-america/re ... -30-years/

What is the average of for all age groups - 45 - 50%. Though 27% is not high ... there are enough additional votes from them to make an impact.

flyingpylon wrote: ↑Tue Nov 15, 2022 2:27 pm

Kbg wrote: ↑Tue Nov 15, 2022 12:49 pm Also...I saw a Tweet that said only 27% of the Gen Z populace even bothered to vote. IDK if accurate but a lot of not much ain't much.

Yes but what % of their ballots were collected? That's the game now, apparently.

Meaning?

Kbg wrote: ↑Wed Nov 16, 2022 12:57 pm

flyingpylon wrote: ↑Tue Nov 15, 2022 2:27 pm

Kbg wrote: ↑Tue Nov 15, 2022 12:49 pm Also...I saw a Tweet that said only 27% of the Gen Z populace even bothered to vote. IDK if accurate but a lot of not much ain't much.

Yes but what % of their ballots were collected? That's the game now, apparently.

Meaning?

Meaning that in many states with loose regulations or lax enforcement regarding mail-in ballots, there’s no longer a need to appeal to voters. Hide in the basement, refuse to debate, generate zero energy, commit a gaffe a day… no worries, none of it matters. You just have to collect ballots to win. That’s a different game and only one party knows how to play it.

flyingpylon wrote: ↑Wed Nov 16, 2022 7:56 pm

Kbg wrote: ↑Wed Nov 16, 2022 12:57 pm

flyingpylon wrote: ↑Tue Nov 15, 2022 2:27 pm

Kbg wrote: ↑Tue Nov 15, 2022 12:49 pm Also...I saw a Tweet that said only 27% of the Gen Z populace even bothered to vote. IDK if accurate but a lot of not much ain't much.

Yes but what % of their ballots were collected? That's the game now, apparently.

Meaning?

Meaning that in many states with loose regulations or lax enforcement regarding mail-in ballots, there’s no longer a need to appeal to voters. Hide in the basement, refuse to debate, generate zero energy, commit a gaffe a day… no worries, none of it matters. You just have to collect ballots to win. That’s a different game and only one party knows how to play it.

And yet the Republicans gerrymander the districts in their own states, which ostensibly swung the house in their favor (between the neutral-NY lines and the biased lines of FL).

Every side can play the victim.

Normie republicans did fine in the election, the whackadoodle election deniers that got sent home. In a purple state, an energetic Republican who held mainstream (conservative) views like Kemp and Desantis romped the opposition. But the rabid performance artist Lake couldn't beat a bunkered Hobbs...partly cause Lake was insane enough to openly reject votes from McCain Republicans.

In my state, which has mass distribution of mail in ballots, the four crazy Republicans lost statewide elections while the three boring ones all won statewide elections - even though the assembly and senate both almost ended up with Dem supermajorities. People were clearly splitting their tickets.

The absolute best result of this election is proof that candidate quality still matters in America. Obviously a wave election will favor one party or another, but enough individual voters still care about who exactly is the person they're voting for.

joypog wrote: ↑Thu Nov 17, 2022 8:26 am

flyingpylon wrote: ↑Wed Nov 16, 2022 7:56 pm Meaning that in many states with loose regulations or lax enforcement regarding mail-in ballots, there’s no longer a need to appeal to voters. Hide in the basement, refuse to debate, generate zero energy, commit a gaffe a day… no worries, none of it matters. You just have to collect ballots to win. That’s a different game and only one party knows how to play it.

And yet the Republicans gerrymander the districts in their own states, which ostensibly swung the house in their favor (between the neutral-NY lines and the biased lines of FL).

Every side can play the victim.

Normie republicans did fine in the election, the whackadoodle election deniers that got sent home. In a purple state, an energetic Republican who held mainstream (conservative) views like Kemp and Desantis romped the opposition. But the rabid performance artist Lake couldn't beat a bunkered Hobbs...partly cause Lake was insane enough to openly reject votes from McCain Republicans.

In my state, which has mass distribution of mail in ballots, the four crazy Republicans lost statewide elections while the three boring ones all won statewide elections - even though the assembly and senate both almost ended up with Dem supermajorities. People were clearly splitting their tickets.

The absolute best result of this election is proof that candidate quality still matters in America. Obviously a wave election will favor one party or another, but enough individual voters still care about who exactly is the person they're voting for.

Agree with all of the above, jopo. Hoping that we have a boring two years with divided (balanced) government.

flyingpylon wrote: ↑Wed Nov 16, 2022 7:56 pm

Kbg wrote: ↑Wed Nov 16, 2022 12:57 pm

flyingpylon wrote: ↑Tue Nov 15, 2022 2:27 pm

Kbg wrote: ↑Tue Nov 15, 2022 12:49 pm Also...I saw a Tweet that said only 27% of the Gen Z populace even bothered to vote. IDK if accurate but a lot of not much ain't much.

Yes but what % of their ballots were collected? That's the game now, apparently.

Meaning?

Meaning that in many states with loose regulations or lax enforcement regarding mail-in ballots, there’s no longer a need to appeal to voters. Hide in the basement, refuse to debate, generate zero energy, commit a gaffe a day… no worries, none of it matters. You just have to collect ballots to win. That’s a different game and only one party knows how to play it.

So goofed up on so many levels. Let's logic this one out.

Hard blue state...none of it matters, blue wins

Hard red state...none of it matters, red wins

Local elections...doesn't matter, not enough power is at stake for the high powered/high moneyed political types to be playing

Purple/competitive state/congressional district...assumes the other party is so lazy and non-caring that they aren't closely watching the other side. It also assumes that the well financed campaigns don't have high powered statistical anomaly measures in place/statisticians on the payroll combined with local operatives who know their areas and the other side's operatives pretty well.

The 2022 Pennsylvania senatorial race had $312 million spent on it and you don't think any bean counters were on staff looking for signs of cheating?

To say it exists, does not mean it exists...and frankly election deniers have brought nothing to the table that suggests a systemic problem that would have changed a result for a nationally prominent race. Zero, zilch, nada.

Here's the truth...Trump and his staff made this stuff up. He's not even smart enough to change his tactics. My guess is the Iowa Republican primary has already been stolen (or will be simultaneously with the first bad polling data for Trump).

Time to move on, nobody outside MAGA land is buying any of this. In fact, they're punishing candidates who bring it up.

https://twitter.com/elonmusk/status/1593767953706921985

Voted no, leftists use Trump to discredit any conservative by association. & Trump walked into the Jan 6 trap, intentional or not.

Anyway, he's back, here we go

https://old.reddit.com/r/Conservative/c ... ack_again/

Here's the trouble that I see... Suppose that DeSantis beats Trump in the primary.

Trump isn't the kind to accept defeat and endorse his rival. He's more the kind to then decide to run as an independent.

If he does, then the D nominee (no matter how senile, for example) will cruise to an easy victory. Right? Is there any way around this?

Xan wrote: ↑Sat Nov 19, 2022 8:38 pm Here's the trouble that I see... Suppose that DeSantis beats Trump in the primary.

Trump isn't the kind to accept defeat and endorse his rival. He's more the kind to then decide to run as an independent.

If he does, then the D nominee (no matter how senile, for example) will cruise to an easy victory. Right? Is there any way around this?

Forget about Trump for a minute. If you’re a voter that leans right and you recognize not only that the GOPe doesn’t adequately represent your values but actively works against them at times, what should you do? Trump wouldn’t be a contender for any election if there wasn’t a sizable number of people that are completely exasperated with the GOPe. Trump is an egomaniac for sure and imperfect in so many ways, but this isn’t all about him as much as Never Trumpers of all varieties make it out to be.

There are clear signs that DeSantis is GOPe. Look at where his donations come from and the people that are already lining up behind him. The GOPe playbook is to emphasize social/cultural issues to gain support from the right but then downplay or ignore big issues around globalism, trade, etc. They will make promises but then do little or nothing as they attempt to co-opt the America First movement the way they did with the Tea Party.

So if you’re someone that thinks the GOPe is the problem, should you keep voting for their candidates? Or is a strategic retreat (D win) the better option? I don’t have the answer but it will be interesting to see how it all unfolds.

flyingpylon wrote: ↑Sun Nov 20, 2022 7:33 am So if you’re someone that thinks the GOPe is the problem, should you keep voting for their candidates? Or is a strategic retreat (D win) the better option? I don’t have the answer but it will be interesting to see how it all unfolds.

Isn't that the basic conundrum for BOTH factions of the Republican Party? Both for GOPe and Trumpists?

Hell that's the basic conundrum for the "exhausted moderates" versus the right/left extremists that have captured their respective political parties. I'm having to think about when I might have to cross the red line to vote R due to the excesses of the hard left...though I suspect it is will be quite a while before the GOP fully detaches itself from Trumpism .

In my mind, as a responsible adult citizen, it's up to each individual to discern the lesser evil and vote for it*. It might hurt to line up behind the National Review Sponsored Candidate(TM)...but is it better than lining up with the Mother Jones candidate? Not an easy choice, but democracy isn't supposed to be.

*two exceptions: if a third party candidate has a reasonable shot at actually winning and/or if you're in a hard red or blue state, then it's reasonable to go 3rd party in a presidential election due to the electoral college.

Xan wrote: ↑Sat Nov 19, 2022 8:38 pm
Here's the trouble that I see... Suppose that DeSantis beats Trump in the primary.

Trump isn't the kind to accept defeat and endorse his rival. He's more the kind to then decide to run as an independent.

If he does, then the D nominee (no matter how senile, for example) will cruise to an easy victory. Right? Is there any way around this?

Right and No.

This is a product of the Cult of Trump and those who supported him or were afraid to stand up to him or both.

He may have ended the Republican party.

joypog wrote: ↑Sun Nov 20, 2022 11:13 am


*two exceptions: if a third party candidate has a reasonable shot at actually winning and/or if you're in a hard red or blue state, then it's reasonable to go 3rd party in a presidential election due to the electoral college.

Living in Massachusetts that is what made it easy to vote for Tulsi Gabbard.

joypog wrote: ↑Sun Nov 20, 2022 11:13 am

flyingpylon wrote: ↑Sun Nov 20, 2022 7:33 am So if you’re someone that thinks the GOPe is the problem, should you keep voting for their candidates? Or is a strategic retreat (D win) the better option? I don’t have the answer but it will be interesting to see how it all unfolds.

Isn't that the basic conundrum for BOTH factions of the Republican Party? Both for GOPe and Trumpists?

It is, and we've seen the GOPe strategy. Their first priority is to quell the populist uprising to retain control of the party and keep the money flowing. That doesn't seem to require the winning of elections.

haha funny! I don't particularly care if Trump is on Twitter or not...but I had gotten bored of following the Elon-show. I also realized how much time it was wasting when I could have been doing something more creative (playing music or blogging). So last night I logged off of Twitter on all my devices.

I guess I accidentally accepted his invitation prematurely?

YOU CAN'T FIRE ME! I QUIT!!

Edit: alternately, this might end up looking like a Kari Lake rejecting McCain voters harbinger of doom.

joypog wrote: ↑Sun Nov 20, 2022 2:48 pm
haha funny! I don't particularly care if Trump is on Twitter or not...but I had gotten bored of following the Elon-show. I also realized how much time it was wasting when I could have been doing something more creative (playing music or blogging). So last night I logged off of Twitter on all my devices.

I guess I'm following his invitation primitively?

YOU CAN'T FIRE ME! I QUIT!!

I still go there frequently and for the way that I use it I've not seen or experienced anything different.

I did notice, though, the other night when so many people thought Twitter was ending. My assessment of all that I read regarding it was that it was hysterical herd behavior.

yankees60 wrote: ↑Sun Nov 20, 2022 5:11 pmI did notice, though, the other night when so many people thought Twitter was ending. My assessment of all that I read regarding it was that it was hysterical herd behavior.

While that may be true, remember that something like Twitter is highly, even entirely, dependent on the network effect. So hysterical herd behavior, however rational or irrational, really could be the end of Twitter, at least as we know it.

I'd like to take the opportunity to plug my philosophy that nobody should use any form of proprietary general-purpose messaging. Open protocols are the only acceptable ones for communication. IMHO.

Xan wrote: ↑Sun Nov 20, 2022 5:53 pm

yankees60 wrote: ↑Sun Nov 20, 2022 5:11 pmI did notice, though, the other night when so many people thought Twitter was ending. My assessment of all that I read regarding it was that it was hysterical herd behavior.

While that may be true, remember that something like Twitter is highly, even entirely, dependent on the network effect. So hysterical herd behavior, however rational or irrational, really could be the end of Twitter, at least as we know it.

I'd like to take the opportunity to plug my philosophy that nobody should use any form of proprietary general-purpose messaging. Open protocols are the only acceptable ones for communication. IMHO.

What are your recommendations for texting and for email? Thanks.

It was fun! Not as hilarious as the week before when all the fake verified accounts got released. But still a good spectacle. I wonder how many more events Elon can manufacture after the World Cup stops boosting his traffic numbers.

In the meantime, I hope all the engineers that were laid off / resigned in this month did a good enough job that the site could run on autopilot till their replacements are onboarded.

Xan wrote: ↑Sun Nov 20, 2022 5:53 pm

yankees60 wrote: ↑Sun Nov 20, 2022 5:11 pmI did notice, though, the other night when so many people thought Twitter was ending. My assessment of all that I read regarding it was that it was hysterical herd behavior.

While that may be true, remember that something like Twitter is highly, even entirely, dependent on the network effect. So hysterical herd behavior, however rational or irrational, really could be the end of Twitter, at least as we know it.

I'd like to take the opportunity to plug my philosophy that nobody should use any form of proprietary general-purpose messaging. Open protocols are the only acceptable ones for communication. IMHO.

First paragraph. I maintain what I said. After the hysterical herd behavior and nothing happened, i.e, Twitter is still here there is no more talk about Twitter ending.

Second paragraph. Could you further elaborate with more specifics?