Gyroscopic Investing

mathjak107 wrote: ↑Wed Mar 03, 2021 3:31 am Just look at at the fall for gold and long term treasuries since august

I am not aware of any asset class that does not display return to mean characteristics. Perhaps there are some, but I've never seen one.

The inverse of your statement would be "look at the rise in gold and TLT since August of 2019 until August 2020." No one knows the timing but you can go to the bank that after a solid runup there will be a retracement or downturn.

Tyler's recent article, under the sheets, is really a reflection of the above.

We spend 80% of all our investing time somewhere between the last low and last high ...

The only question is where we are in between ..that can be hundreds of thousands of dollars in a spread .

Normally it is not a problem going with the flow but when you do something like I did so far and shot myself in the foot swapping one asset allocation for another which still has the other one up nicely the view of what you swapped for is going to be greatly diminished..

My pp is 630k in each asset class

mathjak107 wrote: ↑Wed Mar 03, 2021 10:15 am My pp is 630k in each asset class

Hi mat.

Your PP will be totally used to your retirement or what is your strategy ?

Will you donate 100% to your sons?

Regards

It was going to be for my retirement strategy until things are resolved with the pandemic ...then the plan was to go back to my regular retirement models I used for years.

The plan was to use the pp to shelter the fabulous gains from the last few years ....but that didn’t work so well so far and the pp is doing much worse then the models I left.

The portfolio I left is still doing fine and up ytd ...pp is kicking my butt

mathjak107 wrote: ↑Wed Mar 03, 2021 5:26 pm
The portfolio I left is still doing fine and up ytd ...pp is kicking my butt

Yes, same

Your modification to the PP might turn out to be the greatest thing ever. Or not.

The thing to remember is, the idea behind the PP is that you don't know and you CAN'T know, so hold the PP proportions of all those assets.

So no matter which economic condition prevails, you should have something that counters the falling assets and gives you a modest return but not require you to guess correctly on which asset will win and when it will do it.

mathjak107 wrote: ↑Wed Mar 03, 2021 5:26 pm It was going to be for my retirement strategy until things are resolved with the pandemic ...then the plan was to go back to my regular retirement models I used for years.

The plan was to use the pp to shelter the fabulous gains from the last few years ....but that didn’t work so well so far and the pp is doing much worse then the models I left.

The portfolio I left is still doing fine and up ytd ...pp is kicking my butt

Hi

Which models?

Can you please share portfolios alternatives to PP?

Best regards

I have been using the fidelity insight newsletter models since 1987..

I can’t disclose what each one holds as we all pay for that ..but they offer a number of different models to choose from ranging from a 25% equity INCOME MODEL , TO A GROWTH AND INCOME MODEL ,GROWTH MODEL , SECTOR PORTFOLIOS, ETC .

You can choose one or mix and match ....I have a sample of the older models I can post but it is no longer representivecof that model

As of closing 3/4/21

Ytd regular pp down 5.50% .

Modified version down 7.25% (1/3) in each

Tlt down 12%
Gld down 11%
Vti up 1.30%
Shy down .30

vincent_c wrote: ↑Fri Mar 05, 2021 7:39 am Modified Version is referring to which allocation?

Regarding YTD returns, maybe it’s more useful to talk about the magnitude and duration of the current drawdown or recovery period.

The 1/3 in each