Gyroscopic Investing

Are you taking up the challenge whosamawhatsit???

Can you figure out where the alleged "excess" 350k deaths are from?????

I sure as heck can't. Maybe Covid pulled some deaths forward for people already terminally ill and now we have Covid deaths instead of what really killed them. But that is not "excess" deaths. Maybe some people were going to die in 2021 and they died 5 or 6 months early because of the WuFlu. And we let the government destroy so much and grab so much power because of it.

In order to have excess deaths you need a higher death rate among covid positive people than covid negative. I don't see that in the numbers.

The numbers must be wrong huh?

Dr Malcom Kendrick (from Scotland) shares some observations relevant to this thread:

What is left to say?

SomeDude wrote: ↑Tue Jan 05, 2021 11:14 pm Are you taking up the challenge whosamawhatsit???

Can you figure out where the alleged "excess" 350k deaths are from?????

I sure as heck can't. Maybe Covid pulled some deaths forward for people already terminally ill and now we have Covid deaths instead of what really killed them. But that is not "excess" deaths. Maybe some people were going to die in 2021 and they died 5 or 6 months early because of the WuFlu. And we let the government destroy so much and grab so much power because of it.

In order to have excess deaths you need a higher death rate among covid positive people than covid negative. I don't see that in the numbers.

The numbers must be wrong huh?

One of them was my best friend, who was unable to get treatment for cancer and related organ failure due to the hospitals' preoccupation with CoVid. That officially brings the total of "unexplained" excess deaths down to 349,000.

SomeDude wrote: ↑Tue Jan 05, 2021 11:14 pm Are you taking up the challenge whosamawhatsit???

Can you figure out where the alleged "excess" 350k deaths are from?????

I sure as heck can't. Maybe Covid pulled some deaths forward for people already terminally ill and now we have Covid deaths instead of what really killed them. But that is not "excess" deaths. Maybe some people were going to die in 2021 and they died 5 or 6 months early because of the WuFlu. And we let the government destroy so much and grab so much power because of it.

In order to have excess deaths you need a higher death rate among covid positive people than covid negative. I don't see that in the numbers.

The numbers must be wrong huh?

Corto already explained this:

Cortopassi wrote: ↑Tue Jan 05, 2021 6:29 pm The overall population fatality rate (2018) is approx 2.8M/328M = 0.85%. I believe 2019 and 2020 were on track for the reasonably same rate.

Adding Covid to the "normal" fatality rate for a year (2.8M+356K)/328M = 0.96% fatality rate.

Regardless of those that tested positive or not, "something" has increased 2020's fatality rate: (.96-.85)/.85, or about 13%. (Happy for anyone to challenge my math).

Hopkins puts the "case-fatality" rate at 1.7% in the US. Certainly there are plenty of arguments about counting, but 1.7% is much higher than 0.85%, which seems to be the normal death rate according to Corto.

So what are you still looking for? There's a higher death rate among Covid-positive than the general population. More people have died this year than "normal".

As Corto said, it's certainly plenty debatable what our response should be, and whether our response so far has been reasonable and proportional. But the black-and-white "nothing to see here" you seem to be looking for doesn't exist. There are more deaths than normal because of Covid. Yes, surely many of them are "collateral" like Maddy's friend which is very sad.

Maddy wrote: ↑Wed Jan 06, 2021 7:48 am

SomeDude wrote: ↑Tue Jan 05, 2021 11:14 pm Are you taking up the challenge whosamawhatsit???

Can you figure out where the alleged "excess" 350k deaths are from?????

I sure as heck can't. Maybe Covid pulled some deaths forward for people already terminally ill and now we have Covid deaths instead of what really killed them. But that is not "excess" deaths. Maybe some people were going to die in 2021 and they died 5 or 6 months early because of the WuFlu. And we let the government destroy so much and grab so much power because of it.

In order to have excess deaths you need a higher death rate among covid positive people than covid negative. I don't see that in the numbers.

The numbers must be wrong huh?

One of them was my best friend, who was unable to get treatment for cancer and related organ failure due to the hospitals' preoccupation with CoVid. That officially brings the total of "unexplained" excess deaths down to 349,000.

I'm very sorry to hear that Maddy. There are lots of deaths being caused by the response to Covid rather than the actual infection I'm sure.

Are you taking up my challenge Xan???????

360k "Covid-related" deaths right?

Against how many people infected with Covid?

Forget John Hopkins, do the math yourself. Tell me how much higher it is than the normal death rate please.

Take up the challenge!!!!!! Help me understand!!!! Stop repeating there are excess deaths, I've conceeded that point for arguments sake. Explain using numbers how it's covid please. start with the official positve tested cases and "covid-related" deaths", most of which are people over 65 with comorbidities who a lot of which would have already died..................

Xan wrote: ↑Wed Jan 06, 2021 9:05 am There are more deaths than normal because of Covid. Yes, surely many of them are "collateral" like Maddy's friend which is very sad.

This might be the answer. The response to Covid resulted in more deaths, but covid infection itself is barely moving the needle. But since the death spike was really back in March/April/May, does that make sense? The response was barely in place back then.

And......if the spike was back then.......are we treating it so much better now than we were then?

SomeDude wrote: ↑Wed Jan 06, 2021 11:12 am

Xan wrote: ↑Wed Jan 06, 2021 9:05 am There are more deaths than normal because of Covid. Yes, surely many of them are "collateral" like Maddy's friend which is very sad.

This might be the answer. The response to Covid resulted in more deaths, but covid infection itself is barely moving the needle. But since the death spike was really back in March/April/May, does that make sense? The response was barely in place back then.

And......if the spike was back then.......are we treating it so much better now than we were then?

Yes, we are treating better for sure. Yes that initial spike was real. Yes there have been collateral deaths. Yes people are still dying from it.

I'm still not clear what you are looking for.

We have excess deaths at a decent level. Unless there was an uptick in deadly car crashes or murders or something else, Covid is seemingly the major factor/difference from past years, regardless of with/from Covid or collateral damage.

There will be a multitude of post mortem investigations once we pass through this, and hopefully things get reassessed and determined to have been good or poor decisions and we don't just kneejerk do the same things in the future if it happens again.

Suicide up
Overdose up
Homicide up
Seniors denied family contact wither away
Fear of going to the hospital
Delayed/denied screening and treatment
Aging population = more deaths every year
Ventilators: "Among the 2,634 patients for whom outcomes were known, the overall death rate was 21%, but it rose to 88% for those who received mechanical ventilation" https://www.reddit.com/r/China_Flu/comm ... tors_died/

Another Ivor Cummins video. Seems tailor made for this thread, because it nicely cuts across the confusion about excess mortality vs COVID death counts.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=p_vAQyVlXzU

Fair warning, it's 37 minutes. If you can't sit through the whole thing, the first few minutes are great for answering SomeDude's questions.

boglerdude wrote: ↑Wed Jan 06, 2021 4:00 pm Suicide up
Overdose up
Homicide up
Seniors denied family contact wither away
Fear of going to the hospital
Delayed/denied screening and treatment
Aging population = more deaths every year
Ventilators: "Among the 2,634 patients for whom outcomes were known, the overall death rate was 21%, but it rose to 88% for those who received mechanical ventilation" https://www.reddit.com/r/China_Flu/comm ... tors_died/

Now we're getting somewhere

WiseOne wrote: ↑Wed Jan 06, 2021 5:15 pm Another Ivor Cummins video. Seems tailor made for this thread, because it nicely cuts across the confusion about excess mortality vs COVID death counts.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=p_vAQyVlXzU

Fair warning, it's 37 minutes. If you can't sit through the whole thing, the first few minutes are great for answering SomeDude's questions.

I will listen and comment....at least for a few minutes. There seems to be something else big going on.

Select report named

Weekly Number of Deaths by Cause Subgroup

From

https://www.cdc.gov/nchs/nvss/vsrr/covi ... deaths.htm

Alzheimer's and diabetes as causes are way up vs previous years.

Respiratory diseases barely register on the charts.

Edit: so is ischemic heart disease and hypertensive diseases

WiseOne wrote: ↑Wed Jan 06, 2021 5:15 pm Another Ivor Cummins video. Seems tailor made for this thread, because it nicely cuts across the confusion about excess mortality vs COVID death counts.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=p_vAQyVlXzU

Fair warning, it's 37 minutes. If you can't sit through the whole thing, the first few minutes are great for answering SomeDude's questions.

As long as his stats are legit, that's quite a de-hystericalizing video.

And here's another article that's a very interesting take - from CNN, no less:

https://www.lifesitenews.com/news/docto ... id-vaccine

"Moore said that Americans need to be prepared for reports about the elderly dying “a day or two” after receiving the vaccine jab, adding that such deaths are a “normal occurrence” that may have nothing to do with the vaccine since such people “die frequently.”

And nothing to do with COVID, maybe?

BTW I heard through the grapevine that FDNY union has advised its members not to take the vaccine, because there are reports of much more severe side effects than the media or the pharmaceuticals/FDA have described. I've been hearing about people being sick for up to 2 weeks. The dept is afraid of too many paramedics being out sick due to mass vaccination. More than half the paramedics have refused the vaccine in consequence.

I haven't heard anything like this from my hospital, but neither have they reported any numbers. I assume a lot have been vaccinated, and I haven't heard about any severe side effects. However, most doctors are well used to working while sick, so they may simply be sucking it up and not saying anything.

SomeDude wrote: ↑Tue Jan 05, 2021 5:35 pm I already said i will accept the graphs at face value. I will accept there are a few hundred k excess deaths in 2020 for the sake of this discussion. What I'd like to know is how they can be due to COVID if the covid positive population has the same death rate OR lower than the gen pop.

I'll take a stab at this...

I think the error in your thinking is that for death rate in the COVID infected population, you are only considering the number of people who actually die from/with COVID. So just COVID deaths alone account for a normal expected total, BUT it's not actually counting the total death rate in that COVID-infected cohort. So some of those 21 million, 42 million or whatever are dying from other causes like car crashes, heart attacks, cancer, etc. that actually have no connection to COVID.

In other words you are only considering ONE cause of death and confusing it for TOTAL deaths in that group.

Hope that makes sense.

barrett wrote: ↑Thu Jan 07, 2021 9:18 am BUT it's not actually counting the total death rate in that COVID-infected cohort. So some of those 21 million, 42 million or whatever are dying from other causes like car crashes, heart attacks, cancer, etc. that actually have no connection to COVID.

In other words you are only considering ONE cause of death and confusing it for TOTAL deaths in that group.

That's what I was missing. It was in my brain, i just couldn't get it out.

Nobel-prize winning scientist, and inventor of the PCR test, comes right out and says Fauci's a political hack who doesn't understand the science.
https://twitter.com/ligia4508/status/13 ... 9649219584

Maddy wrote: ↑Thu Jan 07, 2021 1:55 pm
Nobel-prize winning scientist, and inventor of the PCR test, comes right out and says Fauci's a political hack who doesn't understand the science.
https://twitter.com/ligia4508/status/13 ... 9649219584

Kary Mullis · Died
Aug 07, 2019 · Newport Beach, CA


Contrarian scientific views and HIV/AIDS denial
Mullis was quoted saying "the never-ending quest for more grants and staying with established dogmas" has hurt science.[10] He believed that "science is being practiced by people who are dependent on being paid for what they are going to find out," not for what they actually produce.[10] Mullis was described by some[by whom?] as an "diligent and avid researcher" who finds routine laboratory work boring and instead thinks about his research while driving and surfing. He came up with the idea of the polymerase chain reaction while driving along a highway.[40]

A New York Times article listed Mullis as one of several scientists who, after success in their area of research, go on to make unfounded, sometimes bizarre statements in other areas.[41] In his 1998 humorous autobiography proclaiming his maverick viewpoint, Mullis expressed disagreement with the scientific evidence supporting climate change and ozone depletion, the evidence that HIV causes AIDS, and asserted his belief in astrology.[18] [42] Mullis claimed climate change and HIV/AIDS theories were promulgated by a conspiracy of environmentalists, government agencies, and scientists attempting to preserve their careers and earn money, rather than scientific evidence.[18] The medical and scientific consensus considers these hypotheses as pseudoscience[citation needed], HIV having been conclusively proven to be the cause of AIDS[43][44] and global warming strongly shown to be caused by human activities.[45][46][47]

Mullis wrote that he began to question the AIDS consensus while writing a NIH grant progress report and being unable to find a peer-reviewed reference that HIV was the cause of AIDS.[18][48] He published an alternative theory of AIDS in 1994,[49] and questioned the scientific validity of the link between HIV and AIDS, leading some to label him an "AIDS denialist."[50][51] Mullis has been criticized for his association with HIV skeptic Peter Duesberg,[52] claiming that AIDS is an arbitrary diagnosis used when HIV antibodies are found in a patient's blood.[53] In 2006, Mullis wrote the foreword to the book What If Everything You Thought You Knew About AIDS Was Wrong? by Christine Maggiore,[48] an HIV-positive AIDS denialist whose 3-year-old daughter died of AIDS-related pneumonia in 2005, and herself died of an AIDS-related illness in 2008.[54] According to journalist Coby McDonald, Mullis' HIV skepticism influenced Thabo Mbeki's denialist policymaking throughout his tenure as president of South Africa from 1999 to 2008, contributing to as many as 330,000 unnecessary deaths.[55] An article in the Skeptical Inquirer described Mullis as an "AIDS denialist with scientific credentials [who] has never done any scientific research on HIV or AIDS."[56] However, he consulted for Specialty Labs, in Santa Monica, developing a nucleic acid based HIV test. Seth Kalichman, AIDS researcher and author of Denying AIDS, "[admits] that it seems odd to include a Nobel laureate among the who's who of AIDS pseudoscientists".[57] In 2010, Mullis gave a talk at Google at which he was asked about his controversial views on AIDS and HIV. Mullis said "I'm come to the conclusion... that the thing that causes AIDS is not a species of the retroviridae, it's the whole genus."[58]

Maddy wrote: ↑Thu Jan 07, 2021 1:55 pm Nobel-prize winning scientist, and inventor of the PCR test, comes right out and says Fauci's a political hack who doesn't understand the science.
https://twitter.com/ligia4508/status/13 ... 9649219584

Yup, I posted that same video in the coronavirus thread a while back:
viewtopic.php?p=215651#p215651

Vinny claimed that because Mullis holds some controversial views about certain topics like HIV/AIDS and climate change, everything he says is completely discredited.

Tortoise wrote: ↑Thu Jan 07, 2021 2:12 pm

Maddy wrote: ↑Thu Jan 07, 2021 1:55 pm
Nobel-prize winning scientist, and inventor of the PCR test, comes right out and says Fauci's a political hack who doesn't understand the science.
https://twitter.com/ligia4508/status/13 ... 9649219584

Yup, I posted that same video in the coronavirus thread a while back:
viewtopic.php?p=215651#p215651

Vinny claimed that because Mullis holds some controversial views about certain topics like HIV/AIDS and climate change, everything he says is completely discredited.

Not at all. It is saying that because he was a Nobel-prize winning scientist does not make him the end all authority on everything.

I could find something else from another book that further points out some wacko views he holds to.

yankees60 wrote: ↑Thu Jan 07, 2021 2:15 pm

Tortoise wrote: ↑Thu Jan 07, 2021 2:12 pm Vinny claimed that because Mullis holds some controversial views about certain topics like HIV/AIDS and climate change, everything he says is completely discredited.

Not at all. It is saying that because he was a Nobel-prize winning scientist does not make him the end all authority on everything.

Based on what I've seen Fauci say and do over the past 9 or 10 months, Mullis's assessment of him seems fairly accurate.

Tortoise wrote: ↑Thu Jan 07, 2021 2:31 pm

yankees60 wrote: ↑Thu Jan 07, 2021 2:15 pm

Tortoise wrote: ↑Thu Jan 07, 2021 2:12 pm
Vinny claimed that because Mullis holds some controversial views about certain topics like HIV/AIDS and climate change, everything he says is completely discredited.

Not at all. It is saying that because he was a Nobel-prize winning scientist does not make him the end all authority on everything.

Based on what I've seen Fauci say and do over the past 9 or 10 months, Mullis's assessment of him seems fairly accurate.

Since I read far more than I watch any videos....does there exist anywhere in writing what he had to say in that video.

Since Mullis was dead prior to the onset of the virus when did had make this assessment on Fauci?

Finally, is not understanding this virus somewhat related to understanding HIV / AIDS? In that one might have either some expertise in understanding both or no expertise in both? If so, why did Mullis hold to such wacky views on HIV / AIDS? If they were so wacky why should we hold to any assessment he has regarding Fauci?

Have I said it enough times yet? Every damn thing is a conspiracy.

My buddy is going off the rails right now emailing me about how all the REAL evidence was going to be presented yesterday right when the storming started. Thwarted again!

Sorry, off topic for two sentences...anyway back to conspiracies, on that twitter thread was this below.

I give up. There's some weird human conspiracy theory gene that must have mutated in the past 10 years or so.

Cortopassi wrote: ↑Thu Jan 07, 2021 2:59 pm Have I said it enough times yet? Every damn thing is a conspiracy.

Probably not EVERYTHING.....but close enough.

There are enough bad people out there conspiring that would like to hurt people that this is why it's a bad idea to give government's power. Bad people grab that power.

And now they have it and they are going to use it. You're going to get injected with whatever they cook up, whether you want it or not. Even if it's a good thing they want to shoot you up with........no one has a right to do that.

And they will probably want to tax you for breathing, you know, to save the earth.