Gyroscopic Investing

I agree with most of what you said above.

dualstow wrote: ↑Sat Oct 10, 2020 9:32 am Sounds like an argument for murdering your neighbor for his cash and his wife if one can get away with it. No, life is very much about should, and incentives too.

Off topic but:
The only reason you dont do this is because you perceive bad consequences from it. Those bad consequences could be police, sure, but also your own conscience eternally making you feel bad is a bad potential consequence to avoid. Even our boy Harry said something like "from what grounds could I convince the thief that stealing is bad if he believes he will get good consequences from it". The only way is showing how his bad acts will affect him. Not a general "should". This is from the Rule Your World audio book.

bitcoininthevp wrote: ↑Sat Oct 10, 2020 7:09 am

Kriegsspiel wrote: ↑Fri Oct 09, 2020 5:29 pm

dualstow wrote: ↑Fri Oct 09, 2020 2:20 pm If the world were to agree on a new form of money, governments included, they should start from scratch instead of rewarding people who hoarded it (and burned through the world's oil in the process of mining it) before it was money. They should use something besides bitcoin. A naive thought, perhaps, but I might be in the majority.

On the other hand, one would think that letting a lot of private entities compete in a Who Wants To Make Moneyouttaair game to come up with the best one, using their own time and resources, would be a more efficient way to have it happen. So, let all the people develop their own blockchain, pioneer the technology, and then start using the best one?

Hell, maybe it's not even the best outcome for the whole world to pick one; if Asia likes to use Ethereum, and the Americas likes Bitcoin, and Europe prefers Litecoin, maybe that would work. Those are the only ones I know, but I hope that made sense. Come at me bros.

This sounds reasonable on the surface, many moneys. However due to the schelling point of such things as money, a single victor will eventually emerge, especially in free markets.

Fine with me; that still sounds better than a government decreeing one.

bitcoininthevp wrote: ↑Sat Oct 10, 2020 7:11 am

Libertarian666 wrote: ↑Fri Oct 09, 2020 6:22 pm

dualstow wrote: ↑Fri Oct 09, 2020 2:20 pm

bitcoininthevp wrote: ↑Fri Oct 09, 2020 11:54 am ...

So if you want an asset that is money, which the PP requires, gold is it.

If you want an asset that could be more money-like in the future, bitcoin is it. And this speculation, if correct, could still have 100x upside in price appreciation. But lets not kid ourselves that this is a speculation.

If the world were to agree on a new form of money, governments included, they should start from scratch instead of rewarding people who hoarded it (and burned through the world's oil in the process of mining it) before it was money. They should use something besides bitcoin. A naive thought, perhaps, but I might be in the majority.

Hey, I have an idea!
What if money consisted of a relatively rare metal with a lot of desirable characteristics?
I wonder why no one has ever thought of that before...

Gold standard has been tried and failed due to golds property of being in the physical world leading to centralization of it by entities with monopolies on violence.

I don't see why Bitcoin is immune from government attack either. Im really on the fence about Bitcoin. Maybe I'm just too old to get it. Really it's the insane volatility that drives me to the sidelines. Gold, stocks, and long bonds are a wild ride sometimes....Bitcoins movements make me want to puke.

doodle wrote: ↑Thu Oct 22, 2020 1:49 pm I don't see why Bitcoin is immune from government attack either. Im really on the fence about Bitcoin. Maybe I'm just too old to get it. Really it's the insane volatility that drives me to the sidelines. Gold, stocks, and long bonds are a wild ride sometimes....Bitcoins movements make me want to puke.

Gold's weakness was/is that its physical. It made it easy to take during war, it benefited from physical centralization and paper issuance, it could be found hidden in your house during 6102, taken at a country border.

Bitcoin can literally be stored in your head (using 24 memorized words, although I dont recommend it, people forget and lose funds) or on paper or digital form. So in this specific regard Bitcoin has an advantage.

As a thought experiment...
Of course if US said tomorrow that Bitcoin is illegal, there would be a group of folks that would listen, turn in their bitcoins, and the price would drop near term as a result. But others in the US would choose to ignore that request and continue stealthily accumulating more bitcoins. Likewise, enemy governments of the US might then even have incentive to promote bitcoin. And some jurisdictions could attract bitcoin capital by legislating laws that are specifically pro bitcoin.

bitcoininthevp wrote: ↑Thu Oct 22, 2020 3:56 pm
Gold's weakness was/is that its physical. It made it easy to take during war, it benefited from physical centralization and paper issuance, it could be found hidden in your house during 6102, taken at a country border.

Bitcoin can literally be stored in your head (using 24 memorized words, although I dont recommend it, people forget and lose funds) or on paper or digital form. So in this specific regard Bitcoin has an advantage.

Full agree.

What about the downside of complete traceability of every single transaction that has ever happened and will ever happen?
That sounds like the wet dream of any government.

Is the anonymity guaranteed just by the fact that nobody knows it's me who has generated *this* private key?
Nowadays with big data this feels like a really thin protection, when used as cash.
As a store of value, I would expect at a certain point to be able to exchange it for services (food, shelter, a new car, whatever), at which point the anonymity is gone... for all the transactions I've ever made and will ever make.

As for a way to prevent appropriation from the governement, it would just make it more complicated... but they'd just knock to my door and take away the laptop/phone/USB key/... instead of the bag of coins. Thugs could do the same, and worse they could do it online by tricking my old mother who's using my laptop to check her email into clicking a bad link.

So overall I really see no reason to use it, either as money or as a store of value.

Or am I missing something?

Bitcoin strikes me as a way to drum up big returns in a world where there isn't any. It's one of the last assets that truly has the potential to go to the moon because the market for bitcoing is curently so small. If it starts attracting institutional money it could literally go up 20, 30, even 100 times. It's the ultimate speculation. I'm kind of looking at it like a lottery ticket. I haven't purchased anything yet but might not be a bad gamble to hold one coin.

doodle wrote: ↑Fri Oct 23, 2020 9:58 pm Bitcoin strikes me as a way to drum up big returns in a world where there isn't any. It's one of the last assets that truly has the potential to go to the moon because the market for bitcoing is curently so small. If it starts attracting institutional money it could literally go up 20, 30, even 100 times. It's the ultimate speculation. I'm kind of looking at it like a lottery ticket. I haven't purchased anything yet but might not be a bad gamble to hold one coin.

That's where I'm at doodle. I think that Bitcoin will go down pretty much as Jim Rodgers believes it will; however, one might be smart to
hedge that thesis a little in their VP. Maybe it will turn out landing somewhere in between the Rauol Pal, Max Keiser viewpoint and Jim Rodgers views in the end.
Unlike Gold, you have to transfer back into the system with Bitcoin, whereas you can completely, pretty much anyway, accomplish the opposite with the PM's.

anato wrote: ↑Fri Oct 23, 2020 5:08 pm What about the downside of complete traceability of every single transaction that has ever happened and will ever happen?
That sounds like the wet dream of any government.

"Complete traceability" isnt necessarily correct. You can transact more or less privately. You can mine coins anonymously for example. Or buy some coins from someone with cash, etc. Or you can use Coinbase and announce your ownership of coins to the world.

After you own the coins you can improve privacy using coinjoin or mixing techniques to obfuscate history more.

anato wrote: ↑Fri Oct 23, 2020 5:08 pm Is the anonymity guaranteed just by the fact that nobody knows it's me who has generated *this* private key?
Nowadays with big data this feels like a really thin protection, when used as cash.

Bitcoin is pseudonymous, not anonymous. Meaning its addresses function like an identity.

In terms of private key/public key protections, this cryptography is decades old and battle tested. And the same math/crypto protects the modern Internet and banking which are bigger targets at the moment anyways.

anato wrote: ↑Fri Oct 23, 2020 5:08 pm As a store of value, I would expect at a certain point to be able to exchange it for services (food, shelter, a new car, whatever), at which point the anonymity is gone... for all the transactions I've ever made and will ever make.

See above with regard to transacting using coinjoin or other techniques that break this tracking ability. Further privacy protections are available as well.

anato wrote: ↑Fri Oct 23, 2020 5:08 pm As for a way to prevent appropriation from the governement, it would just make it more complicated... but they'd just knock to my door and take away the laptop/phone/USB key/... instead of the bag of coins. Thugs could do the same, and worse they could do it online by tricking my old mother who's using my laptop to check her email into clicking a bad link.

There is a difference between complete anonymity for acquisition, transacting, and holding coins and Bitcoin being "better" seizure resistance than gold.

anato wrote: ↑Fri Oct 23, 2020 5:08 pm So overall I really see no reason to use it, either as money or as a store of value.

Or am I missing something?

If you dont see a fixed supply, censorship resistant, seizure resistant, inflation resistant, instantly transactable, programmable digital money being increasingly useful into the future than I think you are missing something.

If your expectations are that Bitcoin needs to be censorship-proof, seizure-proof, etc, in order to be useful or accrue value, than I think you are perhaps letting perfect be the enemy of good here.

johnnywitt wrote: ↑Sat Oct 24, 2020 2:00 pm Unlike Gold, you have to transfer back into the system with Bitcoin, whereas you can completely, pretty much anyway, accomplish the opposite with the PM's.

I dont understand why Bitcoin requires transfer back into the system while gold does not.

doodle wrote: ↑Fri Oct 23, 2020 9:58 pm Bitcoin strikes me as a way to drum up big returns in a world where there isn't any. It's one of the last assets that truly has the potential to go to the moon because the market for bitcoing is curently so small. If it starts attracting institutional money it could literally go up 20, 30, even 100 times. It's the ultimate speculation. I'm kind of looking at it like a lottery ticket. I haven't purchased anything yet but might not be a bad gamble to hold one coin.

It might make sense just to get some in case it catches on. If
enough people think the same way, that becomes a self fulfilling
prophecy.

https://satoshi.nakamotoinstitute.org/e ... graphy/17/

I would agree that the PP could benefit from some additional diversification, especially since stock evaluations are so high and bond yields are at an all time low. However, I think bitcoin doesn't have much of a track record and I believe that it would be highly speculative to assume anything about it's long-term gains.

I think an additional asset class for the PP might include additional diversifiers like merger&arbitrage (MNA, MERFX, ARBFX, etc.) and options-based event-driven strategies (IVOL, SWAN, TAIL, etc.).

What would Harry Browne design if he were alive today? Might it take a hint from portfolios like the Golden Butterfly or Dragon portfolios that have 5 asset classes rather than just 4? What might this 5th PP asset class contain?

EDIT: I'm going to name this the PP5 portfolio.

Have not read the whole thread so apologies if it’s already been said. The Winkelvi recently said something to the effect that gold will be worthless because Elon Musk will be able to mine asteroids for unlimited amounts of gold. These guys are IMHO parasites who have extracted wealth from every host they have attached themselves to.

ppnewbie wrote: ↑Thu Oct 29, 2020 2:03 am Have not read the whole thread so apologies if it’s already been said. The Winkelvi recently said something to the effect that gold will be worthless because Elon Musk will be able to mine asteroids for unlimited amounts of gold. These guys are IMHO parasites who have extracted wealth from every host they have attached themselves to.

Not sure what they were going for there. Trying to be edgy or whatnot. Wasn’t a good look imho.

bitcoininthevp wrote: ↑Sun Oct 25, 2020 10:46 am

johnnywitt wrote: ↑Sat Oct 24, 2020 2:00 pm Unlike Gold, you have to transfer back into the system with Bitcoin, whereas you can completely, pretty much anyway, accomplish the opposite with the PM's.

I dont understand why Bitcoin requires transfer back into the system while gold does not.

How does one turn BTC into dollars without cashing them into some form of currency first and going into an account of some kind? With Gold that you hold physically, as long as cash is still legal...
Hey, I'm not knocking Crypto here. I am admittedly ignorant with regard to the intricacies of this asset class.

"A video chat is more valuable than the world's biggest oil explorer and producer"

"It’s the industrial age passing power to the digital age."

https://twitter.com/woonomic/status/132 ... 94400?s=20

I don't see gold being replaced by Bitcoin soon, but the world is definitely changing to digital

Xan, can you put this thread into the VP section? It doesn't belong in the PP forum, and I'd like to opt out of future notifications of unread posts.

Done & done

johnnywitt wrote: ↑Fri Oct 30, 2020 5:54 pm How does one turn BTC into dollars without cashing them into some form of currency first and going into an account of some kind? With Gold that you hold physically, as long as cash is still legal...
Hey, I'm not knocking Crypto here. I am admittedly ignorant with regard to the intricacies of this asset class.

I still dont understand.

Gold is a money like asset that you can hold and perhaps trade with, but likely will "cash out" to dollars in order to spend currently.

Bitcoin is a money like asset that you can hold and perhaps trade with, but likely will "cash out" to dollars in order to spend currently.

Whats the problem with using stocks as money. 401ks are a savings account. Overvaluation of publicly traded companies?

bitcoininthevp wrote: ↑Mon Nov 02, 2020 9:21 am

johnnywitt wrote: ↑Fri Oct 30, 2020 5:54 pm How does one turn BTC into dollars without cashing them into some form of currency first and going into an account of some kind? With Gold that you hold physically, as long as cash is still legal...
Hey, I'm not knocking Crypto here. I am admittedly ignorant with regard to the intricacies of this asset class.

I still dont understand.

Gold is a money like asset that you can hold and perhaps trade with, but likely will "cash out" to dollars in order to spend currently.

Bitcoin is a money like asset that you can hold and perhaps trade with, but likely will "cash out" to dollars in order to spend currently.

Because someone can take a gold coin into a person to person transaction for cash dollars. How does a person cash out their BTC holdings without going through 'the man'

johnnywitt wrote: ↑Fri Nov 06, 2020 3:10 pm

bitcoininthevp wrote: ↑Mon Nov 02, 2020 9:21 am

johnnywitt wrote: ↑Fri Oct 30, 2020 5:54 pm How does one turn BTC into dollars without cashing them into some form of currency first and going into an account of some kind? With Gold that you hold physically, as long as cash is still legal...
Hey, I'm not knocking Crypto here. I am admittedly ignorant with regard to the intricacies of this asset class.

I still dont understand.

Gold is a money like asset that you can hold and perhaps trade with, but likely will "cash out" to dollars in order to spend currently.

Bitcoin is a money like asset that you can hold and perhaps trade with, but likely will "cash out" to dollars in order to spend currently.

Because someone can take a gold coin into a person to person transaction for cash dollars. How does a person cash out their BTC holdings without going through 'the man'

You give me cash, I send you bitcoin (from my wallet to your wallet). No "man" involved

senecaaa wrote: ↑Sun Nov 08, 2020 3:25 am

johnnywitt wrote: ↑Fri Nov 06, 2020 3:10 pm

bitcoininthevp wrote: ↑Mon Nov 02, 2020 9:21 am

johnnywitt wrote: ↑Fri Oct 30, 2020 5:54 pm How does one turn BTC into dollars without cashing them into some form of currency first and going into an account of some kind? With Gold that you hold physically, as long as cash is still legal...
Hey, I'm not knocking Crypto here. I am admittedly ignorant with regard to the intricacies of this asset class.

I still dont understand.

Gold is a money like asset that you can hold and perhaps trade with, but likely will "cash out" to dollars in order to spend currently.

Bitcoin is a money like asset that you can hold and perhaps trade with, but likely will "cash out" to dollars in order to spend currently.

Because someone can take a gold coin into a person to person transaction for cash dollars. How does a person cash out their BTC holdings without going through 'the man'

You give me cash, I send you bitcoin (from my wallet to your wallet). No "man" involved

Correct. Not sure how it could be simpler than this or why there is confusion. I give you cash, you give me bitcoin. Happy to answer any questions of where this is tripping people up.

In fact, in person bitcoin transactions are easier than in person gold transactions as bitcoin is easier to verify than gold. Verification can be done by a simple general purpose computer/phone. Depending on what you’re buying in terms of gold, all kinds of specialized contraptions of varying cost and complexity are required.

Just in https://twitter.com/APompliano/status/1 ... 2018475010

BlackRock CIO of Fixed Income Rick Rieder talking about Bitcoin replacing gold on CNBC this morning.

Ignore at your own peril...