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Re: Is your pp passing the coronavirus test?
Posted: Wed May 20, 2020 9:44 am
by pmward
sophie wrote: ↑Wed May 20, 2020 7:48 am
pp4me wrote: ↑Tue May 19, 2020 4:32 pm
Yes, the PP is doing fine but the bet I made on the GB isn't looking so great. SCV is now the dog dragging the portfolio down. I don't even know how much because I don't want to look right now.
But I'm sticking with it because I think it will still turn out to be a good long term bet.
There's always a dog dragging the portfolio down - by definition. It was gold in 2013, for example. You have to look at it not as a dud asset to get rid of, but rather as a buying opportunity. And certainly not as a "bet". Betting is exactly what you don't want to be doing with your core investments.
The small cap losses make total sense because small businesses are being impacted much worse than large ones. I doubt very much that the small business model is dead though. It may take time, years maybe, but small business will come back. When that happens you'll realize that you bought a ton of SCV at fire sale prices. And that you sold gold and bonds at high prices in order to do it. What's not to like about that?
Yep, in a buy and rebalance system the magic is in the forced buying low and selling high. Human psychology is setup to want to buy high and sell low. You see people struggling with this here and on bogleheads all the time. If people follow the rules of the system it prevents this from happening. It's not always easy to adhere to those rules though.
Re: Is your pp passing the coronavirus test?
Posted: Wed May 20, 2020 5:07 pm
by snedgar
The rules are The Magic!
When I hit a re-balance band i just smile and collect my "re-balancing premium."
Re: Is your pp passing the coronavirus test?
Posted: Wed May 20, 2020 9:11 pm
by Dieter
GB-ish portfolio for retirement funds, starting in 2012(?).
I'd be better off financially if I hadn't back then, but I don't worry like I did in the last two big market downturns.
So, yeah. Doing what I hoped.
Re: Is your pp passing the coronavirus test?
Posted: Sat May 23, 2020 11:08 am
by Fredmong
gizmo_rat wrote: ↑Wed May 20, 2020 5:00 am
All good PP is up about 4% (has never hit a rebalance point in 10 years)
How did that happen ? No rebalancing in the past 10 years ?!
Real curious, are you checking for rebalancing only once a year ?
Thanks
Re: Is your pp passing the coronavirus test?
Posted: Sun May 24, 2020 4:05 am
by gizmo_rat
I look every month or 2 and use 15/35 bands, IIRC the (UK) PP has only hit a band a handful of times since the 70’s.
My stocks are down to 17%, I can barely contain my excitement
Re: Is your pp passing the coronavirus test?
Posted: Wed May 27, 2020 8:49 pm
by I Shrugged
Today (cherry picking), my PP is up 1% YTD. I'm pleased with that.
Re: Is your pp passing the coronavirus test?
Posted: Thu May 28, 2020 7:58 am
by sophie
My GB was within a percentage point of flat when I rebalanced a few weeks ago, and since then it's up 3%. Mostly because the small cap value funds I held my nose and bought are up almost 10%.
In contrast, the "normal" three-fund portfolio in my gold-deficient 403b plan is down 4% YTD. Not too bad actually, but certainly easier to handle since I have the GB protecting those retirement accounts from my having to dip into them prematurely.
Re: Is your pp passing the coronavirus test?
Posted: Thu May 28, 2020 8:06 am
by Cortopassi
Mine is up 6.17%, high for the year.
You could have asked me to bet money at the end of March if this would be the case. I would have lost.
I have read quite a few times over the past couple months "The stock market is not the economy." What a perfect example.
Re: Is your pp passing the coronavirus test?
Posted: Thu May 28, 2020 8:13 am
by sophie
Cortopassi wrote: ↑Thu May 28, 2020 8:06 am
I have read quite a few times over the past couple months "The stock market is not the economy." What a perfect example.
Well put!!! It is almost mystifying what the market is doing. Perhaps it's gold that most accurately reflects the uncertainty - it's remained high, well over 1700.
Re: Is your pp passing the coronavirus test?
Posted: Thu May 28, 2020 3:43 pm
by mathjak107
Only 5% of the s&p index is airlines ,hotels , leisure ,restaurants and cruises ...they have little effect on the markets indexes.
25% is internet sales , online information services and social media .....
Plus layoffs go right to the company bottom line ...remember they don’t have to show profits ...they just have do do less bad than estimates...so Main Street and Wall Street have little in common early on
