Re: New paper from GB basically confirming what Denninger said
Posted: Thu Mar 19, 2020 2:51 pm
Yes, of course an effective treatment will put an end to the pandemic.Tyler wrote: ↑Thu Mar 19, 2020 10:20 amExponential growth that doesn't account for active countermeasures is just a math exercise and not a realistic model.Libertarian666 wrote: ↑Wed Mar 18, 2020 6:58 pm When someone looks at data that shows a fairly smooth exponential growth and predicts that the incidence will grow exponentially, that's not really a big stretch.
Of course I hope you and Epstein are right.
I just don't see it in the data.
The endgame is the emerging news that testing is ramping up and several existing drugs appear highly effective in treating the virus. So sooner or later anyone sick will get tested and receive immediate treatment that (fingers crossed) appears to eliminate the virus in a matter of days. That will drastically improve things and allow life to start to resume while buying time for the vaccine to be developed to manage it long-term.
Of course I could be wrong and we could be looking at a very different scenario. But my point is that possibilities like this aren't in the model.
And coming up with such a treatment RIGHT NOW is the only way we don't have a terrible result.
Fortunately it looks as though one may be available RIGHT NOW.
And just as fortunately, we have the champion red-tape-cutter in charge. With a waffling type like most previous Presidents, the death toll would be far worse than it looks as though it is going to be.