Gyroscopic Investing

WiseOne wrote: ↑Sun Mar 22, 2020 10:56 am Good on you tech.

I was figuring my number assuming that testing would be widely available ("millions" I believe the promises said). Now that testing is actually going to be reduced rather than increased, I'm going to go with 80,000 for next Sunday.

I could go for a contest for the time of peak daily new coronavirus cases - that is inherently more predictable than the time that isolation measures will be lifted. For peak daily new cases, I'll predict April 15. For lifting of isolation measures I will guess May 31.

WiseOne wrote: ↑Sun Mar 22, 2020 10:56 am Good on you tech.

I was figuring my number assuming that testing would be widely available ("millions" I believe the promises said). Now that testing is actually going to be reduced rather than increased, I'm going to go with 80,000 for next Sunday.

I could go for a contest for the time of peak daily new coronavirus cases - that is inherently more predictable than the time that isolation measures will be lifted. For peak daily new cases, I'll predict April 15. For lifting of isolation measures I will guess May 31.

Smith1776 wrote: ↑Mon Mar 23, 2020 5:33 pm The growth in COVID-19 cases may make for a morbid, but effective, example of the power of compound interest to young people, and why they should invest...?

Libertarian666 wrote: ↑Mon Mar 23, 2020 6:28 pm

Smith1776 wrote: ↑Mon Mar 23, 2020 5:33 pm The growth in COVID-19 cases may make for a morbid, but effective, example of the power of compound interest to young people, and why they should invest...?

I think most people would invest if they could get 30% a day.

Smith1776 wrote: ↑Mon Mar 23, 2020 6:48 pm Considering the financial hardship this virus has imposed on much of our population, I wouldn't be surprised if that actually happened.

The teensy tiny silver lining here is that it's a great time to introduce the Permanent Portfolio to people.

dualstow wrote: ↑Mon Mar 23, 2020 7:11 pm

Smith1776 wrote: ↑Mon Mar 23, 2020 6:48 pm Considering the financial hardship this virus has imposed on much of our population, I wouldn't be surprised if that actually happened.

The teensy tiny silver lining here is that it's a great time to introduce the Permanent Portfolio to people.

Well since the Plague kept coming back it had the opposite effect, causing people to live for the moment and party like it was 1999. I meant something a little more scifi and silly: that the virus would edit the registry keys of our brains and cause us to be savers and investors without our conscious participation.

dualstow wrote: ↑Mon Mar 23, 2020 7:11 pm

Smith1776 wrote: ↑Mon Mar 23, 2020 6:48 pm Considering the financial hardship this virus has imposed on much of our population, I wouldn't be surprised if that actually happened.

The teensy tiny silver lining here is that it's a great time to introduce the Permanent Portfolio to people.

Well since the Plague kept coming back it had the opposite effect, causing people to live for the moment and party like it was 1999. I meant something a little more scifi and silly: that the virus would edit the registry keys of our brains and cause us to be savers and investors without our conscious participation.

dualstow wrote: ↑Mon Mar 23, 2020 7:11 pm Well since the Plague kept coming back it had the opposite effect,

dualstow wrote: ↑Tue Mar 24, 2020 8:15 am :-) I will brush your plaque comment aside.
Keep checking in, M.

WiseOne wrote: ↑Sat Mar 28, 2020 11:39 am Not yet mountaineer! Here was your prediction:

Peak date: April 22

Lift isolation date: May 13

Was there another one?

ochotona wrote: ↑Sat Mar 28, 2020 12:14 pm wake me up when it's 1.0E+06

Mountaineer wrote: ↑Sat Mar 28, 2020 12:12 pm

WiseOne wrote: ↑Sat Mar 28, 2020 11:39 am Not yet mountaineer! Here was your prediction:

Peak date: April 22

Lift isolation date: May 13

Was there another one?

Yes, in an earlier post I kept my 100,000 guess (for March 22 at 12:01am) that turned out to be a factor of 4 high, for midnight today (actually, for 12:01am tomorrow March 29). Time flu by too quickly. As of this posting, the number of cases is 112,560 in the USA. Thanks for the encouragement though.