Long/ short PP

General Discussion on the Permanent Portfolio Strategy

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pershing83

Re: Long/ short PP

Post by pershing83 »

I know that Kevin. I read read the book long ago. My post was primarily about VWINX and VWELX, read it again.
SanMiguel

Re: Long/ short PP

Post by SanMiguel »

Clive wrote:
SanMiguel wrote: I'm also still wondering if it isn;t better to use the 25% allocation for a VP as 50% allocation to bonds seems pretty high.
If you have Excel or OpenOffice download Simba's backtest spreadsheet http://www.bogleheads.org/forum/viewtopic.php?t=2520 and plug in 25% total stock market (TSM), 75% 5 Year treasury (which is a proxy for a 5 year treasury ladder rewards (but a ladder gets to those rewards via a lower risk route)).

You might be surprised at how well a mostly bond, a little stock blend actually has performed. Even more so if you swap out TSM and hold large cap value instead for the 25% stock part.

1972 to 2010 100% TSM 9.92% annualised, compared to a 25% LCV, 75% 5 Year T blend = 9.1% annualised.  The 25-75 blend however endured a worse year decline of less than -3.5% (100% stocks was a much wilder ride such as -37% down in 2008).

Does this adjust for inflation?
Most bonds when adjusted for inflation don;t earn any money. Edit: maybe that's an over generalization but is true of the current market.
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