The Key to the PP: 25% Gold

[MediumTex]

As for stocks, until EVERYONE hates them, I don't think we will be at the bottom of this secular bear market that started in 2000.  When I look at a stock like Microsoft, however, the secular bear market P/E compression is unmistakable (which suggests we may be closer to the end of the bear market than the beginning).  Microsoft has had solid earnings over the last 10+ years, yet the stock has done nothing (ditto for Berkshire Hathaway), and currently trades at a P/E under 10, even though it is enjoying double digit revenue and earnings growth.

In general the entire large-cap tech sector is like that...  http://tech.fortune.cnn.com/2011/05/26/ ... -are-lame/

I think until you start getting the P/E of the overall market down, the bear has room to roam.

I think it will take another 5 years or so to really bottom out.  Of course, it could take a LOT longer if QE gadget plays keep short circuiting the bottoming process.  As usual, see Japan.