Gyroscopic Investing

Wow, Quicken doth say my gold ROI is > 0%.

Weird....

And now it's up over $1410. Not gonna complain!

Dieter wrote: ↑Thu Jun 20, 2019 8:45 pm Wow, Quicken doth say my gold ROI is > 0%.

jacksonM wrote: ↑Thu Jun 20, 2019 4:25 pm Physical gold, unfortunately, is still a bit underwater as some of the first ones I bought were for $1725/ounce. (Correction: Even my physical gold hit the break even point yesterday)

Same here. Bought some gold back in 2012 for close to $1800, but overall it's at 0% nominal. If you look at Tyler's heat map, 2013-2015 really brutalized gold's returns.

Kriegsspiel wrote: ↑Fri Jun 21, 2019 8:47 am

Dieter wrote: ↑Thu Jun 20, 2019 8:45 pm Wow, Quicken doth say my gold ROI is > 0%.

jacksonM wrote: ↑Thu Jun 20, 2019 4:25 pm Physical gold, unfortunately, is still a bit underwater as some of the first ones I bought were for $1725/ounce. (Correction: Even my physical gold hit the break even point yesterday)

Same here. Bought some gold back in 2012 for close to $1800, but overall it's at 0% nominal. If you look at Tyler's heat map, 2013-2015 really brutalized gold's returns.

Yes, I remember the brutalization of gold very well but strangely enough it increased my confidence in the PP because it showed me that one sector can endure a complete meltdown without ruining the whole portfolio. I think I was down, at the most, about 2% overall during that period.

I'm still down 5-6% overall and very envious of you breakeven guys.

Well I think it's safe to say bonds was a false breakout, as they spent one day above resistance and then plunged back down very powerfully today. Stocks also rejected, though not with as much strength as bonds. So Krieg got himself not one, but TWO prairie dogs today, lol. So far gold is the only of the three assets to be holding their breakout. It does seem to be getting some hesitation at $1400 though, I think getting some space above that level is key to trigger the more stubborn shorts to cover.

pmward wrote: ↑Fri Jun 21, 2019 2:31 pm So Krieg got himself not one, but TWO prairie dogs today, lol.

I recommend psyllium seed and plenty of water.

pmward wrote: ↑Fri Jun 21, 2019 2:31 pm Well I think it's safe to say bonds was a false breakout, as they spent one day above resistance and then plunged back down very powerfully today. Stocks also rejected, though not with as much strength as bonds. So Krieg got himself not one, but TWO prairie dogs today, lol. So far gold is the only of the three assets to be holding their breakout. It does seem to be getting some hesitation at $1400 though, I think getting some space above that level is key to trigger the more stubborn shorts to cover.

This sounds like coverage of a horse race!

It's kind of fun to listen to stuff like this even though it's not even slightly doing justice to the market forces that are driving these trends - which are likely far more complex than any one person understands. It's why trying to manipulate prices produces results that even people who spend lifetimes studying it can't predict.

Very few people seem to understand this...Harry Browne did, very well.

sophie wrote: ↑Sat Jun 22, 2019 1:26 pm

pmward wrote: ↑Fri Jun 21, 2019 2:31 pm Well I think it's safe to say bonds was a false breakout, as they spent one day above resistance and then plunged back down very powerfully today. Stocks also rejected, though not with as much strength as bonds. So Krieg got himself not one, but TWO prairie dogs today, lol. So far gold is the only of the three assets to be holding their breakout. It does seem to be getting some hesitation at $1400 though, I think getting some space above that level is key to trigger the more stubborn shorts to cover.

This sounds like coverage of a horse race!

It's kind of fun to listen to stuff like this even though it's not even slightly doing justice to the market forces that are driving these trends - which are likely far more complex than any one person understands. It's why trying to manipulate prices produces results that even people who spend lifetimes studying it can't predict.

Very few people seem to understand this...Harry Browne did, very well.

Haha, yeah I'm just looking at the short term on this. The only reason for short term moves is pretty much all speculation. There's no real reason or logic behind it, it's all greed and fear. The complexity behind what is causing that speculation is out of my wheelhouse, all I can do is examine and analyze the results of the speculation, not the underlying cause. At any point in time there are large institutional shorts and longs for every asset, and there are certain levels that both will throw in the towel and levels that both will double down. These short term levels are fairly predictable and do follow repeatable patterns. Short term sentiment can also change on a dime though, there is no such thing as a risk free trade. But sometimes that short term sentiment turns into long term sentiment and that is what benefits us here. Mainly the reason I post this stuff now is because I am extremely bullish on gold, and the negativity on gold the last few months here has made no sense to me since from a technical standpoint every signal I use is bullish on gold and has been for months now. While most have been pessimistic on gold, I've been slowly watching the steam build up since back in the winter, just waiting for the moment the top blows off, haha.

dualstow wrote: ↑Fri Jun 21, 2019 1:51 pm I'm still down 5-6% overall and very envious of you breakeven guys.

I did go slow (and am still low gold - GBish for part of retirement savings), but a solid percentage of my Gold still underwater.

Started buying IAU in 2012. To date, purchase price between around 16.5 (2012) and 11 (2016).

Interesting first few years of Gold and LTT ownership. 2013 sucked (switched from Bogleheadish ~65/35 in 2012)

But yes, nice to be overall Gold positive.

If the last month in gold doesn't have your head spinning, you are a very calm person.

Sunday night, oh yeah, Trump is pulling back on all the China tariff talk, gold is going to get hammered. And it did.

Tuesday morning -- what changed??

Cortopassi wrote: ↑Tue Jul 02, 2019 2:15 pmIf the last month in gold doesn't have your head spinning, you are a very calm person.

Or you're not paying attention. Which the PP is good at letting you do.

Xan wrote: ↑Tue Jul 02, 2019 2:25 pm

Cortopassi wrote: ↑Tue Jul 02, 2019 2:15 pmIf the last month in gold doesn't have your head spinning, you are a very calm person.

Or you're not paying attention. Which the PP is good at letting you do.

+1

Xan wrote: ↑Tue Jul 02, 2019 2:25 pm

Cortopassi wrote: ↑Tue Jul 02, 2019 2:15 pmIf the last month in gold doesn't have your head spinning, you are a very calm person.

I am only in my first year in PP and my head is spinning constantly, can't stop checking the charts.

Or you're not paying attention. Which the PP is good at letting you do.

They assured me go into PP and you can relax and sleep as a baby. it is a lie! Better go into 60/40 looks much more relaxed

johntaylor wrote: ↑Tue Jul 02, 2019 6:26 pm

Xan wrote: ↑Tue Jul 02, 2019 2:25 pm

Cortopassi wrote: ↑Tue Jul 02, 2019 2:15 pmIf the last month in gold doesn't have your head spinning, you are a very calm person.

I am only in my first year in PP and my head is spinning constantly, can't stop checking the charts.

Or you're not paying attention. Which the PP is good at letting you do.

They assured me go into PP and you can relax and sleep as a baby. it is a lie! Better go into 60/40 looks much more relaxed

If a 60/40 portfolio would make you more comfortable then by all means go there. If you are not sleeping at night then you need to make some changes.

Ray Dalio says gold will be a top investment during upcoming ‘paradigm shift’ for global markets...

https://www.cnbc.com/2019/07/17/ray-dal ... rkets.html

Ad Orientem wrote: ↑Wed Jul 17, 2019 1:47 pm Ray Dalio says gold will be a top investment during upcoming ‘paradigm shift’ for global markets...

https://www.cnbc.com/2019/07/17/ray-dal ... rkets.html

Love it.

Technically speaking, gold just broke out of another consolidation today. After breaking out of the wedge like a rocket last month, the last 4 weeks it's been consolidating in a pennant. A pennant formation can be either bullish or bearish. So I've been watching it closely to see which way it resolves. Today was a pretty decisive breakout above that pennant. It's also the highest daily close we've had of this rally. All the above using IAU for analysis.

I would love for you to be right, but I'll be climbing that wall of worry, until I can rebalance because gold breaks my upper band!

Cortopassi wrote: ↑Wed Jul 17, 2019 3:59 pm I would love for you to be right, but I'll be climbing that wall of worry, until I can rebalance because gold breaks my upper band!

What price is your rebalance band triggered at?

And while we are on the subject... silver has shot all the way up to $16.00. I have been nibbling in silver for the last year as the silver gold price ration has climbed from the high 70s:1 range up to 93:1. Just recently... touching a 45 year high.

pmward wrote: ↑Wed Jul 17, 2019 4:33 pm

Cortopassi wrote: ↑Wed Jul 17, 2019 3:59 pm I would love for you to be right, but I'll be climbing that wall of worry, until I can rebalance because gold breaks my upper band!

What price is your rebalance band triggered at?

It’s all back and forth with the other assets, right? If the others were to stay exactly as where they are now, I would rebalance at gold north of $2000 an ounce, 140% band.

Sure....I’ll be happy if I can rebalance out of gold a bit at my annual rebalance in Jan

Almost $1450 this afternoon. Yay?

Libertarian666 wrote: ↑Thu Aug 01, 2019 8:19 pm Almost $1450 this afternoon. Yay?

Yay indeed, tech. Yea on that yay.

Cortopassi wrote: ↑Wed Jul 17, 2019 3:59 pm I would love for you to be right, but I'll be climbing that wall of worry, until I can rebalance because gold breaks my upper band!

How far apart are your contractions?