Gyroscopic Investing

bit.ly/2hH3pCX

Risk of a melt-up cited. LizAnn Sonders is always a perma-bull, so if she talks about a melt-up, then it could be underway already.

I am really going to enjoy seeing the tweets, or lack of them, when/if this reverses during his term. Anyone's fault but his, of course, when it goes down.

I just reduced my equity exposure from 60% to 55%. With trendfollowing that's likely HBPP drawdown levels. It's getting too crazy.

Liz Ann Sonders and Randy A. Frederick from Schwab have just gotten on a video today, where they have been gently reminding clients that maybe things are getting too frothy, they've sensed sentiment shifting to extremely positive and speculative just in the past few weeks... they are perma-bulls, so maybe this is as much warning as they will ever issue!

https://youtu.be/PTuQGdtlaRY

sophie wrote:On the other hand, if I held 60% in stocks and followed an active trading philosophy like our friend ochotona, I'd be on edge right now too.

Actually, my downside due to stocks is just about like the PP. Trend following will reduce the drawdown by at least half, so at 55% stocks, really the drawdown in a 2008-2009 scenario is going to be -10%-ish. But you do have to be awake on the last day of the month and decide to trade or not based on very simple metrics.

I'm at 50% stocks, give or take, so I will be hurt by a stock crash, psychologically. On the other hand, I'm young enough that I should be wishing for stocks to get cheap.

dualstow wrote:I'm at 50% stocks, give or take, so I will be hurt by a stock crash, psychologically. On the other hand, I'm young enough that I should be wishing for stocks to get cheap.

Subscribe by email or RSS to my trendfollowing signals. Then get out of stocks when the getting's good. Don't ride them down to the abyss. Gemsignals.blogspot.com

I appreciate it, but I'll pass. They're mostly dividend paying stocks, those that aren't in the pp. (PP has index funds).

What's NW- oh, I got it. Net Worth.

Is it possible the computers/algos/powers that be, etc have such good control this time around that the markets really will never go down?

I almost ask that seriously. Not that I am going above my allocation, but damn it is freaking unstoppable.

Cortopassi wrote:Is it possible the computers/algos/powers that be, etc have such good control this time around that the markets really will never go down?

I almost ask that seriously. Not that I am going above my allocation, but damn it is freaking unstoppable.

Hey, the market has to set new records somehow. This is how it happened in the past. We all just look more often now that it's this high.

Look at GE.
Trough (pre-market) to close today + 11% AFTER missing earnings and guiding -30% lower.

You were saying this market is not rigged...

BUY! BUY! BUY!

XIV is getting ridiculous

Kinda puts it in perspective... nicely done, sir.

Re: Market cap to GDP

"Buffett's Favorite Market Cap To GDP Metric Is Useless"
https://seekingalpha.com/article/408096 ... ic-useless

Perfect chart, kriegs.

Funny, my friend quoted Buffet saying that at lunch today.

Selling off in Asia. Wednesday should be "interesting" in the USA. Maybe some volatility returns.

I'll believe it when I see it. Might start out low, but slow ramp during the day to green/almost green has been the norm.

Right on cue...

Everyone can see the pattern...EU closing to US open. Question is whether this will continue and will you take action? I have as long as it's within established bands.

Gosh, no, I don't take action until my bands are hit. These gyrations have become too predictable, which sort of means there's going to be a big fail of them in the not too distant future...

Cortopassi wrote:Gosh, no, I don't take action until my bands are hit. These gyrations have become too predictable, which sort of means there's going to be a big fail of them in the not too distant future...

Sure feels that way...good until it isnt...

dualstow wrote:I'm at 50% stocks, give or take, so I will be hurt by a stock crash, psychologically. On the other hand, I'm young enough that I should be wishing for stocks to get cheap.

When the last 52 week high email hit my phone, I sold some, I'm now also at 50%, which is the bare minimum I'd be able to tolerate if they just went up at 10% per year for years more to come. It's my minimum no regret level.

I thought I was gutsy at about 35% stocks compared to others on this forum. I'm the timid one!