Re: PP investors--stay the course
Posted: Mon Oct 28, 2013 5:58 am
c'mon
c'mon
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PP investors--stay the course
https://www.gyroscopicinvesting.com/forum/viewtopic.php?t=4814
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c'mon
Re: PP investors--stay the course
Posted: Mon Oct 28, 2013 7:17 pm
For a long time I never watched my portfolio. I didn't even bother to open my 401k statements and this went on for years. Maybe kind of like not wanting to know whether you have cancer or not, or thinking a watched pot never boils. Not sure which. I figured I really didn't have much control over it any way so what was the point?Kshartle wrote:Many do but don't admit it.annieB wrote: "I like to watch"
It all changed when I started the PP a few years ago. Now I am more tempted than I ever was before, I guess because it was a major act of taking charge of my portfolio and now I want to see how it is playing out. Also, has a lot to do with nearing retirement and asset preservation becoming much more important after the 2008 meltdown.
But I'm trying to go back to the way it was before. Haven't looked closely since the end of August and don't plan to again until late January when my planned yearly re-balancing check is scheduled to take place.
Re: PP investors--stay the course
Posted: Tue Oct 29, 2013 3:45 am
neither in google finance you watch your PP during the year?ns2 wrote:For a long time I never watched my portfolio. I didn't even bother to open my 401k statements and this went on for years. Maybe kind of like not wanting to know whether you have cancer or not, or thinking a watched pot never boils. Not sure which. I figured I really didn't have much control over it any way so what was the point?Kshartle wrote:Many do but don't admit it.annieB wrote: "I like to watch"
It all changed when I started the PP a few years ago. Now I am more tempted than I ever was before, I guess because it was a major act of taking charge of my portfolio and now I want to see how it is playing out. Also, has a lot to do with nearing retirement and asset preservation becoming much more important after the 2008 meltdown.
But I'm trying to go back to the way it was before. Haven't looked closely since the end of August and don't plan to again until late January when my planned yearly re-balancing check is scheduled to take place.
Re: PP investors--stay the course
Posted: Sun Nov 10, 2013 2:28 am
Re: PP investors--stay the course
Posted: Sun Nov 10, 2013 6:40 pm
I don't see PP going anywhere for a long time. Gold is getting sold on every run up, stocks aren't pulling it up much and when QE stops, it could take a major gold hit.
Re: PP investors--stay the course
Posted: Sun Nov 10, 2013 7:26 pm
Most of the time, the exact opposite of what you think will happen actually happens.
Re: PP investors--stay the course
Posted: Mon Nov 11, 2013 8:57 am
Seems like just yesterday people were saying they didn't see stocks going anywhere for a long time.portart wrote: I don't see PP going anywhere for a long time. Gold is getting sold on every run up, stocks aren't pulling it up much and when QE stops, it could take a major gold hit.
It wasn't yesterday, but it wasn't long ago at all.
Re: PP investors--stay the course
Posted: Mon Nov 11, 2013 9:25 am
Why do we continue to ignore the fact that 25% allocated to equities is insufficient to buoy the portfolio in times of prosperity? The answer is not to hold a speculative VP heavy in equities.
Re: PP investors--stay the course
Posted: Mon Nov 11, 2013 9:33 am
Wait... is this a time of prosperity?buddtholomew wrote: Why do we continue to ignore the fact that 25% allocated to equities is insufficient to buoy the portfolio in times of prosperity? The answer is not to hold a speculative VP heavy in equities.
Re: PP investors--stay the course
Posted: Mon Nov 11, 2013 9:43 am
Nice job ignoring the question. A 30% YTD increase in equities is insufficient to offset declines in the other assets. That is a fact even if you believe the economy isn't improving.flyingpylon wrote:Wait... is this a time of prosperity?buddtholomew wrote: Why do we continue to ignore the fact that 25% allocated to equities is insufficient to buoy the portfolio in times of prosperity? The answer is not to hold a speculative VP heavy in equities.
Re: PP investors--stay the course
Posted: Mon Nov 11, 2013 10:01 am
I don't understand why you don't just liquidate your PP and move into a 60/40 portfolio or something. You will never be able to participate much in a stock rally with only 25% of your portfolio in stocks. If tracking equities better is a high priority for you, the PP is probably never going to cut it. If anything it's sort of an anti-prosperity portfolio.buddtholomew wrote: Nice job ignoring the question. A 30% YTD increase in equities is insufficient to offset declines in the other assets. That is a fact even if you believe the economy isn't improving.
Re: PP investors--stay the course
Posted: Mon Nov 11, 2013 10:18 am
I reached the same conclusion and I agree with the comment that the PP is "anti-prosperity". My VP is equity heavy, but I wish the PP could stand on its own when equities are on rise.
Re: PP investors--stay the course
Posted: Mon Nov 11, 2013 10:55 am
It is for me. 50% of (vp+pp) is stocks. The rest of the vp is corp bonds & munis, mostly.buddtholomew wrote: Why do we continue to ignore the fact that 25% allocated to equities is insufficient to buoy the portfolio in times of prosperity? The answer is not to hold a speculative VP heavy in equities.
I don't know how the pp will turn out in the future. I love it as a core.
Re: PP investors--stay the course
Posted: Mon Nov 11, 2013 11:24 am
Why cant the PP stand alone without a VP?
Re: PP investors--stay the course
Posted: Mon Nov 11, 2013 11:56 am
Just let us know when you have found a low-volatility portfolio that participates fully in an equity run-up. I'm sure many people would be interested in that.buddtholomew wrote: Why cant the PP stand alone without a VP?
Oh, and a unicorn too!
Re: PP investors--stay the course
Posted: Mon Nov 11, 2013 12:30 pm
My PP is standing alone just fine. I just have a different definition of independence.
Re: PP investors--stay the course
Posted: Mon Nov 11, 2013 11:35 pm
The HBPP has apparently yielded -4.01% over the past 12 months. Unless a big rally comes up in the next 1.5 months, 2013 is going to be a down year for the HBPP. It will be the 3rd or 4th down year since 1973, depending on how you measure it.
It sucks that my first full year invested in the HBPP was a down year. It makes me feel like I have supernaturally terrible luck.
But, on the other hand: it's the 2nd or 3rd worst year since 1974 for the HBPP... and it was only down 4.01%! That's pretty impressive, when you think about it.
Hopefully 2014 will be better.
It sucks that my first full year invested in the HBPP was a down year. It makes me feel like I have supernaturally terrible luck.
But, on the other hand: it's the 2nd or 3rd worst year since 1974 for the HBPP... and it was only down 4.01%! That's pretty impressive, when you think about it.
Hopefully 2014 will be better.
Re: PP investors--stay the course
Posted: Tue Nov 12, 2013 2:31 am
edsanville wrote: The HBPP has apparently yielded -4.01% over the past 12 months. Unless a big rally comes up in the next 1.5 months, 2013 is going to be a down year for the HBPP. It will be the 3rd or 4th down year since 1973, depending on how you measure it.
It sucks that my first full year invested in the HBPP was a down year. It makes me feel like I have supernaturally terrible luck.
But, on the other hand: it's the 2nd or 3rd worst year since 1974 for the HBPP... and it was only down 4.01%! That's pretty impressive, when you think about it.
Hopefully 2014 will be better.
Re: PP investors--stay the course
Posted: Tue Nov 12, 2013 7:24 am
In a thread asking what it would take to make one abandon the pp, I think MT said it would have to go down 3 years in a row. Down how much, I don't know. I think I will adopt the same policy, although I certainly don't expect it to happen anytime soon.edsanville wrote: ...
It sucks that my first full year invested in the HBPP was a down year. It makes me feel like I have supernaturally terrible luck.
But, on the other hand: it's the 2nd or 3rd worst year since 1974 for the HBPP... and it was only down 4.01%! That's pretty impressive, when you think about it.
Hopefully 2014 will be better.
Sure, stocks are flying high right now, but it will be nice to have bonds and gold when stocks inevitably plummet.
The question is, will my bonds and/or gold soar, or just come back up to breakeven?
Re: PP investors--stay the course
Posted: Tue Nov 12, 2013 8:34 am
Personally, I'm happy that gold and LLTs are down this year. Since I'm in my early accumulating years, I'm glad I have the opportunity to buy at lower prices.
Re: PP investors--stay the course
Posted: Tue Nov 12, 2013 1:35 pm
I sincerely doubt that gold and bonds will soar in response to falling equity prices. I suspect gold declines and investors shun long-term treasuries as the current mindset is for yields to rise. This portfolio has seen its best days...dualstow wrote:In a thread asking what it would take to make one abandon the pp, I think MT said it would have to go down 3 years in a row. Down how much, I don't know. I think I will adopt the same policy, although I certainly don't expect it to happen anytime soon.edsanville wrote: ...
It sucks that my first full year invested in the HBPP was a down year. It makes me feel like I have supernaturally terrible luck.
But, on the other hand: it's the 2nd or 3rd worst year since 1974 for the HBPP... and it was only down 4.01%! That's pretty impressive, when you think about it.
Hopefully 2014 will be better.
Sure, stocks are flying high right now, but it will be nice to have bonds and gold when stocks inevitably plummet.
The question is, will my bonds and/or gold soar, or just come back up to breakeven?
Re: PP investors--stay the course
Posted: Tue Nov 12, 2013 1:38 pm
If you truly believe that, isn't getting out now the best course of action? Since you hate this portfolio and feel pessimistic about its future, why continue to torture yourself?buddtholomew wrote: This portfolio has seen its best days...
Re: PP investors--stay the course
Posted: Tue Nov 12, 2013 1:48 pm
My sentiments exactly. In my own time, thank you.Pointedstick wrote:If you truly believe that, isn't getting out now the best course of action? Since you hate this portfolio and feel pessimistic about its future, why continue to torture yourself?buddtholomew wrote: This portfolio has seen its best days...
Re: PP investors--stay the course
Posted: Tue Nov 12, 2013 2:41 pm
According to Peak2Trough, for the last 12 months, the HBPP has return of -2.89%...and there have been several calls that the HBPP is doomed...
However, over the past 42 yrs when there apparently was nothing inherently wrong with the HBPP, there have been 120 periods (which were undoubtedly less or greater than 12 months) that had a drawdown over 3%...
Am I missing something here or can one surmise that the recent (last 12 months) performance of the HBPP is nothing to get too excited about?
If I had the programming prowess of Peak2Trough or many others on this forum, I would develop a program (like Peak2Trough) that you could put your start date and let it show you how your returns for that time period rank with similar time periods over the last 42 years... That could be very enlightening...
However, over the past 42 yrs when there apparently was nothing inherently wrong with the HBPP, there have been 120 periods (which were undoubtedly less or greater than 12 months) that had a drawdown over 3%...
Am I missing something here or can one surmise that the recent (last 12 months) performance of the HBPP is nothing to get too excited about?
If I had the programming prowess of Peak2Trough or many others on this forum, I would develop a program (like Peak2Trough) that you could put your start date and let it show you how your returns for that time period rank with similar time periods over the last 42 years... That could be very enlightening...
Re: PP investors--stay the course
Posted: Tue Nov 12, 2013 3:18 pm
Where's the money going, then? It just about has to be in gold, bonds, stocks, or cash.buddtholomew wrote:I sincerely doubt that gold and bonds will soar in response to falling equity prices. I suspect gold declines and investors shun long-term treasuries as the current mindset is for yields to rise. This portfolio has seen its best days...