I'm Done!

General Discussion on the Permanent Portfolio Strategy

Moderator: Global Moderator

User avatar
Greg
Executive Member
Executive Member
Posts: 1126
Joined: Sun May 20, 2012 6:12 pm
Location: Maryland

Re: I'm Done!

Post by Greg »

AdamA wrote:
1NV35T0R wrote:
smurff wrote: Leather chaps are always up. But they don't replace gold in the PP.
Maybe since I'm still relatively new to this forum it's an inside joke that I was never a part of, but is there an origin to where this love of leather chaps came about from?
No, we all just love them.

http://gyroscopicinvesting.com/forum/ht ... ic.php?t=2
Gracias for the knowledge. Now everything makes more sense. I should diversify a bit more into physical assets such as leather chaps. My VP could probably use it (especially if they have precious metals sewn into the design).
Background: Mechanical Engineering, Robotics, Control Systems, CAD Modeling, Machining, Wearable Exoskeletons, Applied Physiology, Drawing (Pencil/Charcoal), Drums, Guitar/Bass, Piano, Flute

"you are not disabled by your disabilities but rather, abled by your abilities." -Oscar Pistorius
User avatar
MediumTex
Administrator
Administrator
Posts: 9096
Joined: Sun Apr 25, 2010 11:47 pm
Contact:

Re: I'm Done!

Post by MediumTex »

The PP grinds upward.

It's up about 3.5%-4% YTD.

On track for 7%-8% for the year.
Q: “Do you have funny shaped balloons?”
A: “Not unless round is funny.”
Reub
Executive Member
Executive Member
Posts: 3158
Joined: Fri Jan 21, 2011 5:44 pm

Re: I'm Done!

Post by Reub »

That is exactly what I'm looking for. Still sleeping like a baby, M.T.!

And happy Independence Day to everyone here. You too, Clive and gizmo-rat.
User avatar
MediumTex
Administrator
Administrator
Posts: 9096
Joined: Sun Apr 25, 2010 11:47 pm
Contact:

Re: I'm Done!

Post by MediumTex »

Reub wrote: That is exactly what I'm looking for. Still sleeping like a baby, M.T.!

And happy Independence Day to everyone here. You too, Clive and gizmo-rat.
I assume wishing Clive a happy Independence Day is intended to be ironic.
Q: “Do you have funny shaped balloons?”
A: “Not unless round is funny.”
gizmo_rat
Executive Member
Executive Member
Posts: 303
Joined: Mon Jan 17, 2011 5:25 am

Re: I'm Done!

Post by gizmo_rat »

MediumTex wrote: The PP grinds upward.
It's up about 3.5%-4% YTD.
On track for 7%-8% for the year.
UK return is roughly half that, its almost as if this austerity BS doesn't work.
Reub wrote: And happy Independence Day to everyone here. You too, Clive and gizmo-rat.
Thanks Reub, you can keep the tea but only if you have Bob Diamond back.
Reub
Executive Member
Executive Member
Posts: 3158
Joined: Fri Jan 21, 2011 5:44 pm

Re: I'm Done!

Post by Reub »

You're welcome gizmo-rat, but actually I'm not much of a tea drinker.  :)
User avatar
MediumTex
Administrator
Administrator
Posts: 9096
Joined: Sun Apr 25, 2010 11:47 pm
Contact:

Re: I'm Done!

Post by MediumTex »

Clive wrote:
MediumTex wrote:
Reub wrote: And happy Independence Day to everyone here. You too, Clive and gizmo-rat.
I assume wishing Clive a happy Independence Day is intended to be ironic.
...We must, therefore, acquiesce in the necessity, which denounces our Separation, and hold them, as we hold the rest of mankind, Enemies in War, in Peace Friends...

No more ironic than might be sharing in remembrance of the Civil War MT.

The friendship didn't last too long as the US declared war against the Brits again in 1812. Back to friends again by 1814 (Treaty of Ghent) just in time for the Brits to fight the Battle of Waterloo (French). The Brit Army seems to like to keep to a pretty tight schedule of activity http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Timeline_o ... itish_Army

Getting close to the Fountain of Time in Washington Park (Chicago) to be extended by another 100 figures (200 years of peace between US and Britain).

Happy Independence Day.
None of it would have happened without the wisdom and leadership of Thomas Paine, who first arrived in the colonies in late 1774.  Without the intellectual framework provided by Paine, the rest of the founding fathers would have continued arguing for a couple of seats in parliament.

I think that the colonists' grievances against the crown turned into the same sort of domestic grievances against the crown soon enough thereafter.  One reading of the 4th of July is a repudiation of monarchy and tyranny in general, and that's something everyone can celebrate.

Here is a good Payne quote:
Of more worth is one honest man to society and in the sight of God, than all the crowned ruffians that ever lived.
Q: “Do you have funny shaped balloons?”
A: “Not unless round is funny.”
TBV
Executive Member
Executive Member
Posts: 250
Joined: Wed Jan 26, 2011 2:20 pm

Re: I'm Done!

Post by TBV »

To be fair, Paine did not persuade the "rest of the Founding Fathers" to opt for independence, though some Continental Congress delegates (of which he was not one) were indeed reluctant.  Fighting had already begun, Washington had already been appointed as head of the army, and British colonial governors were already being replaced before Common Sense was published.  We should be very grateful that Paine was around when things were going badly during the war.  We should also be grateful that he was not around when our permanent institutions were being formed. There's a reason Lafayette was universally beloved in America while Paine died without friends.  Paine was by and large an intolerant man whose zeal to reform society was not necessarily well reconciled with advocacy on behalf of liberty.  Even worse, he was naive enough to believe first in the dangerous radicals who gave rise to the French Terror, and later on in Napoleon, whose planned invasion of England he ardently supported.  A revolutionary whose career did not end well.  Like Che, but without the T-shirt.
Last edited by TBV on Thu Jul 05, 2012 12:46 am, edited 1 time in total.
User avatar
MachineGhost
Executive Member
Executive Member
Posts: 10054
Joined: Sat Nov 12, 2011 9:31 am

Re: I'm Done!

Post by MachineGhost »

TBV wrote: To be fair, Paine did not persuade the "rest of the Founding Fathers" to opt for independence, though some Continental Congress delegates (of which he was not one) were indeed reluctant.  Fighting had already begun, Washington had already been appointed as head of the army, and British colonial governors were already being replaced before Common Sense was published.  We should be very grateful that Paine was around when things were going badly during the war.  We should also be grateful that he was not around when our permanent institutions were being formed. There's a reason Lafayette was universally beloved in America while Paine died without friends.  Paine was by and large an intolerant man whose zeal to reform society was not necessarily well reconciled with advocacy on behalf of liberty.  Even worse, he was naive enough to believe first in the dangerous radicals who gave rise to the French Terror, and later on in Napoleon, whose planned invasion of England he ardently supported.  A revolutionary whose career did not end well.  Like Che, but without the T-shirt.
Interesting perspective.  While Paine had some common sense, I think you can't exclude him without the slovenly influences of Locke and Spooner.  Locke is to private property rights what Obama is to ACORN.
"All generous minds have a horror of what are commonly called 'Facts'. They are the brute beasts of the intellectual domain." -- Thomas Hobbes

Disclaimer: I am not a broker, dealer, investment advisor, physician, theologian or prophet.  I should not be considered as legally permitted to render such advice!
User avatar
MediumTex
Administrator
Administrator
Posts: 9096
Joined: Sun Apr 25, 2010 11:47 pm
Contact:

Re: I'm Done!

Post by MediumTex »

TBV wrote: To be fair, Paine did not persuade the "rest of the Founding Fathers" to opt for independence, though some Continental Congress delegates (of which he was not one) were indeed reluctant.  Fighting had already begun, Washington had already been appointed as head of the army, and British colonial governors were already being replaced before Common Sense was published.  We should be very grateful that Paine was around when things were going badly during the war.  We should also be grateful that he was not around when our permanent institutions were being formed. There's a reason Lafayette was universally beloved in America while Paine died without friends.  Paine was by and large an intolerant man whose zeal to reform society was not necessarily well reconciled with advocacy on behalf of liberty.  Even worse, he was naive enough to believe first in the dangerous radicals who gave rise to the French Terror, and later on in Napoleon, whose planned invasion of England he ardently supported.  A revolutionary whose career did not end well.  Like Che, but without the T-shirt.
Do you believe that Paine wrote the Declaration of Independence?
Q: “Do you have funny shaped balloons?”
A: “Not unless round is funny.”
TBV
Executive Member
Executive Member
Posts: 250
Joined: Wed Jan 26, 2011 2:20 pm

Re: I'm Done!

Post by TBV »

MediumTex wrote: Do you believe that Paine wrote the Declaration of Independence?
Actually, no I don't, though some Paine admirers claim he did.  The Committee of Five who did write it were certainly no slouches, and I have no reason to believe they needed a ghost writer to express themselves.

In any event, the Declaration came a month after an independence resolution was introduced in Congress.  It was the result, not the catalyst.  Folks like Richard Henry Lee, Patrick Henry and John Adams didn't need to be persuaded, by Paine or anyone else.  And they were certainly not angling for a few seats in Parliament.  Those who were more conciliatory in mid-1775 were no longer so by the time Common Sense came out the following year.
User avatar
MediumTex
Administrator
Administrator
Posts: 9096
Joined: Sun Apr 25, 2010 11:47 pm
Contact:

Re: I'm Done!

Post by MediumTex »

TBV wrote:
MediumTex wrote: Do you believe that Paine wrote the Declaration of Independence?
Actually, no I don't, though some Paine admirers claim he did. 
Have you reviewed the arguments for Paine's authorship?

They are quite compelling.

It's not that no one else was in favor of revolution, it was just that Paine was perhaps the better writer.
Q: “Do you have funny shaped balloons?”
A: “Not unless round is funny.”
TBV
Executive Member
Executive Member
Posts: 250
Joined: Wed Jan 26, 2011 2:20 pm

Re: I'm Done!

Post by TBV »

MediumTex wrote: It's not that no one else was in favor of revolution, it was just that Paine was perhaps the better writer.
The above sentence sounds much better than "...None of it would have happened without the wisdom and leadership of Thomas Paine."
User avatar
MediumTex
Administrator
Administrator
Posts: 9096
Joined: Sun Apr 25, 2010 11:47 pm
Contact:

Re: I'm Done!

Post by MediumTex »

TBV wrote:
MediumTex wrote: It's not that no one else was in favor of revolution, it was just that Paine was perhaps the better writer.
The above sentence sounds much better than "...None of it would have happened without the wisdom and leadership of Thomas Paine."
Do you think the Revolution would have succeeded without Common Sense?

It seems to have really turned the tide on public opinion, in addition to being a great recruiting and retention tool for the army.
Q: “Do you have funny shaped balloons?”
A: “Not unless round is funny.”
TBV
Executive Member
Executive Member
Posts: 250
Joined: Wed Jan 26, 2011 2:20 pm

Re: I'm Done!

Post by TBV »

MediumTex wrote:
Do you think the Revolution would have succeeded without Common Sense?

It seems to have really turned the tide on public opinion, in addition to being a great recruiting and retention tool for the army.
Perhaps.  It's hard to say.  Even with the pamphlet's strong impact, victory was by no means assured.  I do believe unequivocally that without the active assistance of the absolutist French monarchy, and the happy coincidence of having many other countries being at war with Britain at the same time we were, we would have been toast.  Like all revolutionary armies, ours spent most of its time trying to avoid annihilation and hoping for better days.  A substantial portion of the populace was not ardently pro-Revolution and upwards of one-third may have actively opposed it.  The British controlled major cities at various times, like Philadelphia and Charleston, and held New York City for almost the entire war.  Early heroes like Arnold became turncoats and others who remained relentlessly plotted against General Washington.  One decisive advantage was the total absence of modern televised news coverage which, had it existed, would have certainly sapped what little staying power remained.  I'm impressed with the ability of the American Revolutionaries to stay the course and to confront the British in ways that avoided their many strengths (particularly in the South.)  I'm impressed that men so concerned about personal liberty and property rights were willing to risk all fighting an enemy who would certainly have dispatched the lot of them if given the chance.  Their diplomatic skills were also quite amazing, following the principle that the enemy of my enemy is my friend.  After the Revolution, we saw how deeply many of the Founders disliked each other (or at least came to dislike each other's political views.)  In retrospect, it's a wonder they stayed together long enough to succeed.  That's the one essential hallmark of all successful revolutionaries.  They don't quit.

Not a bad thought to keep in mind when contemplating HB's PP.  Never say "I'm done!"
Last edited by TBV on Fri Jul 06, 2012 1:40 am, edited 1 time in total.
User avatar
moda0306
Executive Member
Executive Member
Posts: 7680
Joined: Mon Oct 25, 2010 9:05 pm
Location: Minnesota

Re: I'm Done!

Post by moda0306 »

TBV,

MT may have his analogies, but that was one of the most artful pull-backs into a thread's main purpose from a well-intentioned but definite hijacking I've ever seen.  Good form, sir.
"Men did not make the earth. It is the value of the improvements only, and not the earth itself, that is individual property. Every proprietor owes to the community a ground rent for the land which he holds."

- Thomas Paine
User avatar
AdamA
Executive Member
Executive Member
Posts: 2336
Joined: Sun Jan 23, 2011 8:49 pm

Re: I'm Done!

Post by AdamA »

moda0306 wrote: TBV,

MT may have his analogies, but that was one of the most artful pull-backs into a thread's main purpose from a well-intentioned but definite hijacking I've ever seen.  Good form, sir.
Way to give credit where it's due.
"All men's miseries derive from not being able to sit in a quiet room alone."

Pascal
User avatar
MediumTex
Administrator
Administrator
Posts: 9096
Joined: Sun Apr 25, 2010 11:47 pm
Contact:

Re: I'm Done!

Post by MediumTex »

AdamA wrote:
moda0306 wrote: TBV,

MT may have his analogies, but that was one of the most artful pull-backs into a thread's main purpose from a well-intentioned but definite hijacking I've ever seen.  Good form, sir.
Way to give credit where it's due.
TBV's technique and execution were masterly.

Reading his posts is like listening to Thelonious Monk play the piano--subtle rhythms and cool focus on the main theme, no matter how far afield things drift.

Ironically, this whole thing also reminds me of the more accessible rhythms of the Pussycat Dolls.
Q: “Do you have funny shaped balloons?”
A: “Not unless round is funny.”
TBV
Executive Member
Executive Member
Posts: 250
Joined: Wed Jan 26, 2011 2:20 pm

Re: I'm Done!

Post by TBV »

MediumTex wrote:
AdamA wrote:
moda0306 wrote: TBV,

MT may have his analogies, but that was one of the most artful pull-backs into a thread's main purpose from a well-intentioned but definite hijacking I've ever seen.  Good form, sir.
Way to give credit where it's due.
TBV's technique and execution were masterly.

Reading his posts is like listening to Thelonious Monk play the piano--subtle rhythms and cool focus on the main theme, no matter how far afield things drift.

Ironically, this whole thing also reminds me of the more accessible rhythms of the Pussycat Dolls.
Aww shucks!!
User avatar
dualstow
Executive Member
Executive Member
Posts: 15308
Joined: Wed Oct 27, 2010 10:18 am
Location: searching for the lost Xanadu
Contact:

Re: I'm Done!

Post by dualstow »

gizmo_rat wrote:
Reub wrote: And happy Independence Day to everyone here. You too, Clive and gizmo-rat.
Thanks Reub, you can keep the tea but only if you have Bob Diamond back.
No deal!  :D  He was born in Massachusetts, but maybe we could send him to Scotland or Ireland, his ancestral homeland(s).
HAPPY FOURTH 🇺🇸
User avatar
dualstow
Executive Member
Executive Member
Posts: 15308
Joined: Wed Oct 27, 2010 10:18 am
Location: searching for the lost Xanadu
Contact:

Re: I'm Done!

Post by dualstow »

Clive wrote: No way for Ireland either. I vote for a halfway measure. Pack him off with a tax exempt non financial bonus of his own island between the two. Bob Diamond Island has a nicer ring and rolls easier of the tongue than does NAGP <-- link
haha. Yes! Either that or Mel Gibson's island.
HAPPY FOURTH 🇺🇸
User avatar
Pointedstick
Executive Member
Executive Member
Posts: 8883
Joined: Tue Apr 17, 2012 9:21 pm
Contact:

Re: I'm Done!

Post by Pointedstick »

Sucky day for the markets; nice day for the PP! ;D
Human behavior is economic behavior. The particulars may vary, but competition for limited resources remains a constant.
- CEO Nwabudike Morgan
User avatar
dualstow
Executive Member
Executive Member
Posts: 15308
Joined: Wed Oct 27, 2010 10:18 am
Location: searching for the lost Xanadu
Contact:

Re: I'm Done!

Post by dualstow »

Pointedstick wrote: Sucky day for the markets; nice day for the PP! ;D
Even though the pp doesn't promise to work out every single day, it's interesting to see VOO or VTI* sink and then see EDV awaken like a sleeping giant and midway through the day, trounce my stock losses. Percentagewise, that is, as I trimmed EDV early on and bought more TLT and real 30-year treasuries. Still, TLT and the 30-YR's are holding up well. No complaints.


*(S&P ETF and broad US stock market ETF, respectively)
(EDV = extended duration treasuries)
HAPPY FOURTH 🇺🇸
User avatar
Pointedstick
Executive Member
Executive Member
Posts: 8883
Joined: Tue Apr 17, 2012 9:21 pm
Contact:

Re: I'm Done!

Post by Pointedstick »

Banner day for the PP, or at least one with EDV (+2.54%) and GTU (+1.81)! SHY up 0.06%, too.
Human behavior is economic behavior. The particulars may vary, but competition for limited resources remains a constant.
- CEO Nwabudike Morgan
User avatar
buddtholomew
Executive Member
Executive Member
Posts: 2464
Joined: Fri May 21, 2010 4:16 pm

Re: I'm Done!

Post by buddtholomew »

Has someone produced a list of the highest and lowest days for the PP going as far back as 1971? I only seem to recall those days where the portfolio performed less than expected (whatever that means). This makes sense to me given that investors experience more pain from a dollar lost than they experience pleasure from an equivalent dollar gained.

Nevertheless, I am extremely pleased with the portfolio's performance since crafting the original thread and continue to learn how it responds to an ever-changing economic climate.
"The first principle is that you must not fool yourself and you are the easiest person to fool" --Feynman.
Post Reply