Gyroscopic Investing

Don wrote: ↑Sun Oct 14, 2018 8:04 pm Is this a good time to sell gold after it finally spiked last week?

It's a good time to sell gold if it represents more than 35% of your permanent portfolio.

Don wrote: ↑Sun Oct 14, 2018 8:04 pm Is this a good time to sell gold after it finally spiked last week?

I do not know when is good time to buy or sell anything. If portfolio components hit the rebalance bands, then yes, good time has arrived. Rather than that, sitting ducks.

Kbg wrote: ↑Sun Oct 14, 2018 8:59 pm
I think none of us know...in the store of value realm you have to consider crypto-currencies as a potential threat to gold. Clearly with all the hacking thefts, this isn't happening anytime soon. Stocks as an asset class have around 400 years of history and they completely trash any other asset for returns.

Which stock markets have been around for 400 years? Where are the returns documented?

Kbg wrote: ↑Sun Oct 14, 2018 10:54 am This board seems to forget gold was worth whatever the US government said it was worth on Apr 5 1933 after which point it was a completely useless yellow metal so far as its purchasing power was concerned.

I have no idea what this is supposed to mean.

Don wrote: ↑Sun Oct 14, 2018 8:04 pm Is this a good time to sell gold after it finally spiked last week?

This "spike?" (I'm being sarcastic, sorry, channeling Budd)

From a PP band rebalancing point of view this is nothing but a small blip.

Mark Hulbert thinks the Hulbert newsletter gold sentiment index is too bullish too quickly... a contrarian sign indicating the risk of further declines ahead.

https://www.marketwatch.com/story/gold- ... 2018-10-16

ochotona wrote: ↑Wed Oct 17, 2018 7:22 am Mark Hulbert thinks the Hulbert newsletter gold sentiment index is too bullish too quickly... a contrarian sign indicating the risk of further declines ahead.

https://www.marketwatch.com/story/gold- ... 2018-10-16

I swear, all these prognosticators are either perpetually bullish, perpetually bearish, or always hedging, playing Goldilocks, where the conditions are never just exactly right. But when they are, of course that's what they've been telling you for years. Cynical? Yes.

Good day today, Budd?

dualstow wrote: ↑Tue Oct 23, 2018 11:11 am Good day today, Budd?

So far, no complaints

buddtholomew wrote: ↑Tue Oct 23, 2018 12:24 pm

dualstow wrote: ↑Tue Oct 23, 2018 11:11 am Good day today, Budd?

So far, no complaints

Gold is up. Bonds are up. Cash is doing what cash is supposed to. The only thing getting hammered is stocks.

Ad Orientem wrote: ↑Tue Oct 23, 2018 2:11 pm

buddtholomew wrote: ↑Tue Oct 23, 2018 12:24 pm

dualstow wrote: ↑Tue Oct 23, 2018 11:11 am Good day today, Budd?

So far, no complaints

Gold is up. Bonds are up. Cash is doing what cash is supposed to. The only thing getting hammered is stocks.

You may want to double check...

buddtholomew wrote: ↑Tue Oct 23, 2018 2:13 pm

Ad Orientem wrote: ↑Tue Oct 23, 2018 2:11 pm
Gold is up. Bonds are up. Cash is doing what cash is supposed to. The only thing getting hammered is stocks.

You may want to double check...

Oh my God. This morning, I alternated CNBC with MeTV and two things were getting hammered: stocks and some poor old gym employee on Perry Mason. Back from a late lunch and errands and...the market has really sobered up!

Edit: Great day for McDonalds.

Eh same as ever..PP gave up all the gains in Gld and LTT’s as soon as stocks caught a bid. At the end of trading, Gld was up .60 and LTT’s up .32 while S&P ended down -.54

buddtholomew wrote: ↑Tue Oct 23, 2018 3:03 pm Eh same as ever..PP gave up all the gains in Gld and LTT’s as soon as stocks caught a bid. At the end of trading, Gld was up .60 and LTT’s up .32 while S&P ended down -.54

Yeah, but forgetting the day-to-day stuff, do you believe gold and long bonds will take care of you when there's a sustained downward trend in stocks. That is the important question.

dualstow wrote: ↑Tue Oct 23, 2018 3:12 pm

buddtholomew wrote: ↑Tue Oct 23, 2018 3:03 pm Eh same as ever..PP gave up all the gains in Gld and LTT’s as soon as stocks caught a bid. At the end of trading, Gld was up .60 and LTT’s up .32 while S&P ended down -.54

Yeah, but forgetting the day-to-day stuff, do you believe gold and long bonds will take care of you when there's a sustained downward trend in stocks. That is the important question.

I don’t know...we are in correction territory already and both gold and LTT’s are down YTD. So to answer your question, I don’t think they will protect in a downturn unless stocks are pummeled. At that point one should be a stock buyer anyway.

Sounds good to me. I mean, if we're able to buy stocks with sales of those other assets.
I admit, that probably won't happen for me anytime soon as my gold has not been above water since 2011, I think.
But, it might.

dualstow wrote: ↑Tue Oct 23, 2018 3:24 pm Sounds good to me. I mean, if we're able to buy stocks with sales of those other assets.
I admit, that probably won't happen for me anytime soon as my gold has not been above water since 2011, I think.
But, it might.

Yeah that is the dream...good to see gold somewhat steady but the pessimist in me sees a 2-3% decline before end of month.
Did want to highlight that 70/30 AA is now losing more than the PP so I am losing less in taxable but not gaining.

Hmm, look at nisiprius’ post in this BH thread on bonds.
4th post from top.
https://www.bogleheads.org/forum/viewto ... 1&t=262116

Direct links to posts are near the posters name =)

https://www.bogleheads.org/forum/viewto ... 9#p4180094

boglerdude wrote: ↑Tue Oct 23, 2018 9:22 pm Direct links to posts are near the posters name =)

https://www.bogleheads.org/forum/viewto ... 9#p4180094

Good point, thank you.
Nisi’s was the final post at the time, so I’d lazily used the address bar.

Budd, gold and bonds will rescue the portfolio from a stock market decline, but only over time scales of months at least - not days. This could simply be a "ohmigodwhat'sgoingtohappenwithchinatariffs" bleep in the market, rather than a true correction. No one knows yet.

a line from the Bogleheads post:

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Fair call out that it would be better to say independent vs negatively correlated. I definitely wouldn't seek an asset class that was anywhere near 100% inversely correlated given that would cancel out any gains in an evenly mixed portfolio.

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That's probably the best way to look at bonds and gold. Diversification. Sometimes tracks with, sometimes against, hopefully over the years the rebalancing helps capture gains and put money into the current losers.

sophie wrote: ↑Wed Oct 24, 2018 7:55 am Budd, gold and bonds will rescue the portfolio from a stock market decline, but only over time scales of months at least - not days. This could simply be a "ohmigodwhat'sgoingtohappenwithchinatariffs" bleep in the market, rather than a true correction. No one knows yet.

Eh, same shit different day.
Everyone keeps waiting for the magical moment one of the other assets takes over.
Here’s how it plays out...
Stocks decline, Gold and LTT’s decline, stocks recover and Gold and LTT’s self off.
Rinse and repeat.

That's why I like dividends & interest.
Everything else, you just have to tear yourself away from. That's why it is so highly recommended, albeit difficult, to check the portfolio once a year.

I don't watch prices like you people do. I can go months without looking. Might be one of the few things I do right.

Let me be the first to tell you it’s not good