Coronavirus General Discussion

[I Shrugged]

People I know in Arizona told me that during the whole time of stay at home, if you went into a Home Depot or Lowes, only 1 in 20 people were wearing masks. Including store personnel. And the stores were very busy. So I can imagine that once general society actually opened up, people were not going to be taking any precautions.

[WiseOne]

It appears COVID may have been spreading in China as early as last August:

https://edition.cnn.com/2020/06/08/heal ... jem10point

If that's true, then it had to be in Europe, NY, and all international travel hubs by last fall at the latest. It occurs to me that last fall was a particularly bad flu season, attributed to the vaccine being a wrong guess as to the dominant type of flu. I bet it was actually a mix of COVID and flu.

It looks like NYC cases have continued to decrease (see https://www1.nyc.gov/site/doh/covid/covid-19-data.page) despite the combination of Memorial Day, 2 weeks of mass protests/riots, yesterday's reopening which was preceded by many businesses stepping up their game without the state's blessing, and a general increase in the numbers of people who are just over it and are heading outside to enjoy the early summer weather.

I'm not surprised that the disease will continue to spread slowly, finding pockets of vulnerable populations here and there - and it has nothing to do with the reopenings. I bet Arizona's problem is the large number of Hispanic migrants. They are uniquely vulnerable to COVID, along with black populations, for reasons that can be guessed at but aren't really known. They may also not be doing enough to protect their nursing homes. You might want to see if a breakdown by race/ethnicity/age of hospitalized cases is available. Also make sure it's hospital cases as that's the only reliable measure given the effect of increased testing.

[Libertarian666]

It appears COVID may have been spreading in China as early as last August:

https://edition.cnn.com/2020/06/08/heal ... jem10point

If that's true, then it had to be in Europe, NY, and all international travel hubs by last fall at the latest. It occurs to me that last fall was a particularly bad flu season, attributed to the vaccine being a wrong guess as to the dominant type of flu. I bet it was actually a mix of COVID and flu.

It looks like NYC cases have continued to decrease (see https://www1.nyc.gov/site/doh/covid/covid-19-data.page) despite the combination of Memorial Day, 2 weeks of mass protests/riots, yesterday's reopening which was preceded by many businesses stepping up their game without the state's blessing, and a general increase in the numbers of people who are just over it and are heading outside to enjoy the early summer weather.

I'm not surprised that the disease will continue to spread slowly, finding pockets of vulnerable populations here and there - and it has nothing to do with the reopenings. I bet Arizona's problem is the large number of Hispanic migrants. They are uniquely vulnerable to COVID, along with black populations, for reasons that can be guessed at but aren't really known. They may also not be doing enough to protect their nursing homes. You might want to see if a breakdown by race/ethnicity/age of hospitalized cases is available. Also make sure it's hospital cases as that's the only reliable measure given the effect of increased testing.

Aren't deaths a fairly reliable measure? I realize they have an average lag of two or three weeks.

[Kriegsspiel]

It occurs to me that last fall was a particularly bad flu season, attributed to the vaccine being a wrong guess as to the dominant type of flu. I bet it was actually a mix of COVID and flu.

I'd bet you're right.

[Kriegsspiel]

Heh

[Xan]

If that's true, then it had to be in Europe, NY, and all international travel hubs by last fall at the latest. It occurs to me that last fall was a particularly bad flu season, attributed to the vaccine being a wrong guess as to the dominant type of flu. I bet it was actually a mix of COVID and flu.

It very well may be true, but they seem to be determining that COVID started earlier by examining how busy Wuhan hospitals were. That fact could also be explained by a particularly bad flu season. Unless the hospital busy-ness were only in Wuhan and not in other cities. I haven't seen an analysis of non-Wuhan hospitals. So who knows.

[yankees60]

People I know in Arizona told me that during the whole time of stay at home, if you went into a Home Depot or Lowes, only 1 in 20 people were wearing masks. Including store personnel. And the stores were very busy. So I can imagine that once general society actually opened up, people were not going to be taking any precautions.

Still here in Massachusetts wherever I've been in the public I've been seeing 100% mask compliance (last Friday I went to Stop & Shop, only my third time out in the public since mid-March).

Vinny

[Cortopassi]

Study abroad at all sites have been cancelled by Notre Dame. My daughter was supposed to go to Dublin.

So many ripple effects from this damn lockdown. Now they have to figure out how to fit 400 more students that were going to be away -- in grad dorms, off campus housing, etc. And my daughter is part of this shit.

And who knows how much football revenue Notre Dame and these other big time sports programs are going to lose.

[pmward]

AND the WHO was real quick to walk back that statement that asymptomatic spreading was rare... https://www.nytimes.com/2020/06/09/worl ... dates.html

[WiseOne]

My friend's son, who is an FDNY paramedic, tested positive for COVID antibodies. He was never sick. My friend tested negative for antibodies. She would be considered in a high risk group because of her age, though she has no other risk factors.

They had a lot of contact with each other the last couple of months. He brought over his sick cat because he was working crazy hours and couldn't take care of her. This happened right around the beginning of the lockdown, and he visited frequently throughout to check on his cat (and his mom).

A piece of data about asymptomatic transmission for whatever it's worth.

[stuper1]

My friend's son, who is an FDNY paramedic, tested positive for COVID antibodies. He was never sick. My friend tested negative for antibodies. She would be considered in a high risk group because of her age, though she has no other risk factors.

They had a lot of contact with each other the last couple of months. He brought over his sick cat because he was working crazy hours and couldn't take care of her. This happened right around the beginning of the lockdown, and he visited frequently throughout to check on his cat (and his mom).

A piece of data about asymptomatic transmission for whatever it's worth.

Serious question: Was the cat sick with COVID-19?

[WiseOne]

Interesting question!

The cat had renal failure and loss of appetite. She got better with a shot of antibiotics and an appetite stimulant that I brought over - happened to have it left over from a sick cat episode of my own. No way to know if that was it, but the cat was a rescue who was thin/scrawny/sick when found.

[Maddy]

This hour-long video, which just hit the internet, blew me away. A nurse from New York's Elmhurst Hospital, the "epicenter of the epicenter," describes in detail what's really going on--which in a nutshell boils down to nothing short of murder. I guarantee this video will be well worth your time, but it's likely to be taken down soon, so I'd recommend viewing it now.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=UIDsKdeFOmQ

[Kriegsspiel]

The (scientifically) correct one.

[dualstow]

And a wise one at that, in my opinion.
Essentials.

[WiseOne]

re dualstow's signature

For more NYC misery, google “Rashid Brimmage”

Ah that wonderful bail reform law....this is just one of the many consequences. Too bad the mainstream papers ignored it. Can't have people drawing a line between Cuomo/deBlasio's actions and stories like this.

[pp4me]

The (scientifically) correct one.

That looks like one ply stuff we now have a bunch of. Not sure whether to throw it away or save it for the second or third wave.

[Libertarian666]

The (scientifically) correct one.

That looks like one ply stuff we now have a bunch of. Not sure whether to throw it away or save it for the second or third wave.

I'd hang onto it unless you are very tight for space. Better to have 1-ply than no plies!

[Kriegsspiel]

It looks like he went for the Bud heavies, but maybe the Coors? Probably not relevant, but... you never know. The Wuhan works in mysterious ways.

[dualstow]

It looks like he went for the Bud heavies, but maybe the Coors? Probably not relevant, but... you never know. The Wuhan works in mysterious ways.

Whenever you write “the Wuhan” my brain hears “You don’t mess with the...”

[Kriegsspiel]

YOU GET ME

[Tortoise]

This study (pre-print abstract only, not yet peer reviewed or published) found something quite interesting and unexpected: Some people infected with SARS-CoV-2 apparently develop T-cell responses to it without the corresponding B-cell antibody production, meaning even though they test negative for SARS-CoV-2 antibodies they have still in fact developed immunity to it.

If this finding is true, one implication is that testing negative for SARS-CoV-2 antibodies doesn't necessarily mean you haven't developed immunity. Another implication is that antibody prevalence in serology surveys may underestimate the number of people who have developed immunity.

https://www.medrxiv.org/content/10.1101 ... 20132449v1

[Libertarian666]

This study (pre-print abstract only, not yet peer reviewed or published) found something quite interesting and unexpected: Some people infected with SARS-CoV-2 apparently develop T-cell responses to it without the corresponding B-cell antibody production, meaning even though they test negative for SARS-CoV-2 antibodies they have still in fact developed immunity to it.

If this finding is true, one implication is that testing negative for SARS-CoV-2 antibodies doesn't necessarily mean you haven't developed immunity. Another implication is that antibody prevalence in serology surveys may underestimate the number of people who have developed immunity.

https://www.medrxiv.org/content/10.1101 ... 20132449v1

Very interesting!

[Mark Leavy]

This study (pre-print abstract only, not yet peer reviewed or published) found something quite interesting and unexpected: Some people infected with SARS-CoV-2 apparently develop T-cell responses to it without the corresponding B-cell antibody production, meaning even though they test negative for SARS-CoV-2 antibodies they have still in fact developed immunity to it.

If this finding is true, one implication is that testing negative for SARS-CoV-2 antibodies doesn't necessarily mean you haven't developed immunity. Another implication is that antibody prevalence in serology surveys may underestimate the number of people who have developed immunity.

https://www.medrxiv.org/content/10.1101 ... 20132449v1

Thanks! And, well, shoot.
I had negative results from an antibody test last week.
Now, I know even less than I did before.

[Libertarian666]

This study (pre-print abstract only, not yet peer reviewed or published) found something quite interesting and unexpected: Some people infected with SARS-CoV-2 apparently develop T-cell responses to it without the corresponding B-cell antibody production, meaning even though they test negative for SARS-CoV-2 antibodies they have still in fact developed immunity to it.

If this finding is true, one implication is that testing negative for SARS-CoV-2 antibodies doesn't necessarily mean you haven't developed immunity. Another implication is that antibody prevalence in serology surveys may underestimate the number of people who have developed immunity.

https://www.medrxiv.org/content/10.1101 ... 20132449v1

Thanks! And, well, shoot.
I had negative results from an antibody test last week.
Now, I know even less than I did before.

Same here, although it was a couple of weeks ago.
Maybe they'll be able to figure out a way to use T-cells in mass testing to get a better handle on this issue.