Gyroscopic Investing

"Scientists and Doctors" may (or may not be) right as far as the science and medicine, but they certainly have no special place at the policy-making table where laws are made, or at the kitchen table where personal decisions are made.

They have an input, sure, but any policy recommendations they make are far from infallible, in fact, their recommendations will only be from one perspective without counting the costs involved from any other side.

How many scientists make good CEO's, investors, entrepreneurs or poker players?
None.

Broad spectrum risk management is not in their repertoire.

You guys are going a bit further than my light-hearted intention with the meme. I'm mostly poking fun at the people on my social media feed that are convinced that 5G cell towers are spreading the virus. Your points are well taken and I agree with the general sentiment though.

Smith1776 wrote: ↑Sun May 24, 2020 8:25 pm You guys are going a bit further than my light-hearted intention with the meme. I'm mostly poking fun at the people on my social media feed that are convinced that 5G cell towers are spreading the virus. Your points are well taken and I agree with the general sentiment though.

All in good fun, Smith man. The meme is funny. I'm just venting at folks who raise "Science!" to me, while ignoring that that is sorta my thing...

Mark Leavy wrote: ↑Sun May 24, 2020 8:06 pm How many scientists make good CEO's, investors, entrepreneurs or poker players?
None. Broad spectrum risk management is not in their repertoire.

Evidence? The only multi-millionaire I've met is a scientist

boglerdude wrote: ↑Mon May 25, 2020 12:20 am

Mark Leavy wrote: ↑Sun May 24, 2020 8:06 pm How many scientists make good CEO's, investors, entrepreneurs or poker players?
None. Broad spectrum risk management is not in their repertoire.

Evidence? The only multi-millionaire I've met is a scientist

Ask yourself. Did my statement sound like a peer-reviewed study or one man's provocative opinion?
Place your bets...

https://www.aier.org/article/lockdown-s ... e-tragedy/

Sad, really sad. A couple of comments I read on the article pretty much sum up my view: If you define your purpose or derive your meaning by what you do rather than whose you are, life is tough.

The comments:
"My takeaway is that before the pandemic our society was apparently already running on fumes when it came to people having a sense of meaning and purpose, and the sudden shut-down either supplied it by giving people a mission not to infect people or took away whatever precarious sense of purpose people had. Those who had genuine meaning and purpose have not lost it or gained it due to the virus or the shutdown. But those who had a tenuous sense of purpose before now find even what purpose they had taken away. Or they have made the shutdown their purpose."


""Many people define who they are by what they do: "I'm a _________" Fill in the blank with a trade or profession.
It has been immensely cruel to repeatedly tell a large portion of the population: "You are non-essential"".

Mountaineer wrote: ↑Mon May 25, 2020 6:07 am https://www.aier.org/article/lockdown-s ... e-tragedy/

Sad, really sad. A couple of comments I read on the article pretty much sum up my view: If you define your purpose or derive your meaning by what you do rather than whose you are, life is tough.

The comments:
"My takeaway is that before the pandemic our society was apparently already running on fumes when it came to people having a sense of meaning and purpose, and the sudden shut-down either supplied it by giving people a mission not to infect people or took away whatever precarious sense of purpose people had. Those who had genuine meaning and purpose have not lost it or gained it due to the virus or the shutdown. But those who had a tenuous sense of purpose before now find even what purpose they had taken away. Or they have made the shutdown their purpose."


""Many people define who they are by what they do: "I'm a _________" Fill in the blank with a trade or profession.
It has been immensely cruel to repeatedly tell a large portion of the population: "You are non-essential"".

Unfortunately most people don't have much internal meaning and purpose, so they rely on external validation.
I doubt this is a new phenomenon, but it has been brought into stark relief by the pandemic and the governments' largely fascistic response thereto.

Mountaineer wrote: ↑Mon May 25, 2020 6:07 am https://www.aier.org/article/lockdown-s ... e-tragedy/

Sad, really sad. A couple of comments I read on the article pretty much sum up my view: If you define your purpose or derive your meaning by what you do rather than whose you are, life is tough.

The comments:
"My takeaway is that before the pandemic our society was apparently already running on fumes when it came to people having a sense of meaning and purpose, and the sudden shut-down either supplied it by giving people a mission not to infect people or took away whatever precarious sense of purpose people had. Those who had genuine meaning and purpose have not lost it or gained it due to the virus or the shutdown. But those who had a tenuous sense of purpose before now find even what purpose they had taken away. Or they have made the shutdown their purpose."


""Many people define who they are by what they do: "I'm a _________" Fill in the blank with a trade or profession.
It has been immensely cruel to repeatedly tell a large portion of the population: "You are non-essential"".

Super interesting.

I'll go a step farther: many people rely on work to provide not only a sense of meaning to their lives, but also the majority of their social interactions and sense of community. I'm amazed at how some of my colleagues insist that they need the Friday afternoon "happy hour" where we get on zoom, make awkward corporate-style small talk and drink. I seem to be the only one who would prefer spending that time with actual friends and/or family.

If nothing else, this pandemic has given me total confidence that if I chose to retire, I wouldn't miss work in the slightest. To add a bit of a footnote to Mark's statement about scientists making lousy entrepreneurs, well, I sorta agree with that. My job is no longer science, it's running a small business: I have to keep funding flowing, hire/manage employees, and advertise my product by giving talks and writing reviews/chapters/commentaries/press releases. The two types of endeavors, science & business, are mutually exclusive. Naturally, the scientists who get the most attention are the ones who excel at business - and they are typically not good scientists.

Xan wrote: ↑Sun May 24, 2020 7:24 pm "Scientists and Doctors" may (or may not be) right as far as the science and medicine, but they certainly have no special place at the policy-making table where laws are made, or at the kitchen table where personal decisions are made.

They have an input, sure, but any policy recommendations they make are far from infallible, in fact, their recommendations will only be from one perspective without counting the costs involved from any other side.

When I hear people say we have to listen to the Scientists and Doctors I believe what they really mean is we have to listen to the government. There are plenty of scientist and doctors who disagree with Fauci and Birx on a number of matters but we aren't supposed to listen them - only those who are government approved.

pp4me wrote: ↑Mon May 25, 2020 8:58 am

Xan wrote: ↑Sun May 24, 2020 7:24 pm "Scientists and Doctors" may (or may not be) right as far as the science and medicine, but they certainly have no special place at the policy-making table where laws are made, or at the kitchen table where personal decisions are made.

They have an input, sure, but any policy recommendations they make are far from infallible, in fact, their recommendations will only be from one perspective without counting the costs involved from any other side.

When I hear people say we have to listen to the Scientists and Doctors I believe what they really mean is we have to listen to the government. There are plenty of scientist and doctors who disagree with Fauci and Birx on a number of matters but we aren't supposed to listen them - only those who are government approved.

Agree.

Still thinking about the article that Mountaineer posted. I would venture to guess that years of quality life lost from the lockdown greatly exceeds that of coronavirus, given the difference in age & health status between the two affected populations. It is mind-boggling to me that the subject is still being studiously avoided by most of the mainstream press, except for a few WSJ articles.

Schiff quotes Harry Browne

As former Libertarian leader Harry Browne once said:

Government breaks your leg, and then hands you a crutch and says, “See, if it weren’t for us, you wouldn’t be able to walk.”

https://www.zerohedge.com/markets/black ... -territory

So, we can see where this is going. Debt and monetary expansion look almost certain to increase. The dollar may eventually buckle under the weight, dragging the bond market down with it. It’s hard to say what the economy will look like once the bill comes due, but investors have plenty of warning. They should use the current period, where the dollar has yet to fall, to consider holdings that may provide real protection.

If his thesis is correct, do you think a US PP would function if both cash and the bond market fall?

Remember when California's government filled the beach's skate parks with sand to prevent skaters from using them while the beaches were closed?

Apparently they didn't bother to clear the sand back out when the beaches reopened (because why would they?), so some skaters joined together and did it themselves using buckets.

I think, ironically, a failure of the U.S. bond market and the dollar would precipitate the greatest period of outperformance for the PP. Ever.

And Libertarian666 would be the richest man in Texas.

Tortoise wrote: ↑Wed May 27, 2020 3:17 pm Remember when California's government filled the beach's skate parks with sand to prevent skaters from using them while the beaches were closed?

Apparently they didn't bother to clear the sand back out when the beaches reopened (because why would they?), so some skaters joined together and did it themselves using buckets.

Sadly predictable. It's like every other time, when you do something to fuck with people, you don't undo it until the last possible second.

On the other hand, it's happily predictable that skaters are still DIY as hell and they just take matters into their own hands. (Similar to BMX riders: link 1 and link 2)

Smith1776 wrote: ↑Wed May 27, 2020 3:38 pm I think, ironically, a failure of the U.S. bond market and the dollar would precipitate the greatest period of outperformance for the PP. Ever.

And Libertarian666 would be the richest man in Texas.

I doubt I'd be the richest man in Texas, because I'm pretty sure there are people here who have 1% in gold who still have more ounces than I do.
But I might get the award for "biggest portfolio improvement during a hyperinflation"!

Remember the article I posted a while back about how the largest spikes in covid cases could be traced to "superspreader" events? Like Mardi Gras in New Orleans, or jam packed airports in NYC.

In the images of both protests and riots, I see lots of people congregating in close quarters and shouting. You might recall that forceful loud speaking/singing is exactly why that choir practice in Seattle became a superspreader event.

I predict that by next weekend, COVID cases are going to start spiking in blue cities, and the lockdowns will descend again on the Monday after.

I'm also curious why the blue state governors like Cuomo have suddenly forgotten about their own executive orders prohibiting large gatherings.

Libertarian666 wrote: ↑Tue Jun 02, 2020 9:44 am

WiseOne wrote: ↑Tue Jun 02, 2020 9:40 am Remember the article I posted a while back about how the largest spikes in covid cases could be traced to "superspreader" events? Like Mardi Gras in New Orleans, or jam packed airports in NYC.

In the images of both protests and riots, I see lots of people congregating in close quarters and shouting. You might recall that forceful loud speaking/singing is exactly why that choir practice in Seattle became a superspreader event.

I predict that by next weekend, COVID cases are going to start spiking in blue cities, and the lockdowns will descend again on the Monday after.

I'm also curious why the blue state governors like Cuomo have suddenly forgotten about their own executive orders prohibiting large gatherings.

Oh, that's an easy one: they think that the riots will make it more difficult for Trump to be re-elected, which is their number one goal, regardless of the destruction caused.

I don't think they are correct.

And the governors are supposed to do what? Say pretty please stay indoors? Shoot people?

I was asking my wife this earlier, and there's no good answer. How does this end? If the looting and damage continues, really, what can the government do? Do you start shooting? While the actions are terrible, if it ever comes to that, I cannot imagine the results.

At least a lot of the protesters were wearing masks!

Or we see no discernible spike, which is more data.

There are many non-lethal tactics that can be employed:

-Strict Curfew at dusk

-More boots on the ground than looters

-Tear gas and Water cannons

-Mass arrests

All of those, however, depend upon local leadership determined to keep the peace.

Newsflash: Petitions are being circulated to recall the mayor of Minneapolis and the governor of Minnesota for failing to carry out their oaths of office.

jhogue wrote: ↑Tue Jun 02, 2020 10:45 am There are many non-lethal tactics that can be employed:

-Strict Curfew at dusk

-More boots on the ground than looters

-Tear gas and Water cannons

-Mass arrests

All of those, however, depend upon local leadership determined to keep the peace.

Newsflash: Petitions are being circulated to recall the mayor of Minneapolis and the governor of Minnesota for failing to carry out their oaths of office.

Rudy Giuliani has a very simple rule: As soon as the first bottle or rock is thrown at a protest, start the arrests.
That calms things down very quickly.
As for looters, they need to be shot. Then it doesn't take long for them to figure out it's not a good idea.

Cortopassi wrote: ↑Tue Jun 02, 2020 10:25 am If the looting and damage continues, really, what can the government do?

Same as was done to control past riots, I suppose: make use of the National Guard. You're probably right that the Guard can't stop people from behaving like thugs, but they can contain the damage while they get whatever it is out of their systems. Plus all the things that jhogue mentioned, plus taking federal action against organizing groups like Antifa (if they are in fact instigating the riots). Regardless though, past riots have lasted about a week so presumably this one will follow the same course.

The governors should at least warn publicly that these mass gatherings are going to spread COVID among the demonstrators. It might convince some of them to find other ways to express their opinions.

Libertarian666 wrote: ↑Tue Jun 02, 2020 10:57 am Rudy Giuliani has a very simple rule: As soon as the first bottle or rock is thrown at a protest, start the arrests.
That calms things down very quickly.
As for looters, they need to be shot. Then it doesn't take long for them to figure out it's not a good idea.

They were talking about Giuliani last night (back in the good old days when he was sane) and how he arrested everyone on the bridge. 700 people was the number given. I don't know if it's accurate, but it was every last person. They did not come back.

The ideas to calm thing s.....

Don't equate peaceful protests with looting / rioting.

Police don't excelate peaceful protests.

Some protests doing better than others on social distancing and mask wearing.

Recognize that there are real grievances. Stop murdering black people.

Who hacked Dieter's account?
Dieter, what do you think of Xan's linked documents here? ⇢ viewtopic.php?f=9&t=10769&p=198008#p197993

WiseOne wrote: ↑Tue Jun 02, 2020 9:40 am Remember the article I posted a while back about how the largest spikes in covid cases could be traced to "superspreader" events? Like Mardi Gras in New Orleans, or jam packed airports in NYC.

In the images of both protests and riots, I see lots of people congregating in close quarters and shouting. You might recall that forceful loud speaking/singing is exactly why that choir practice in Seattle became a superspreader event.

I predict that by next weekend, COVID cases are going to start spiking in blue cities, and the lockdowns will descend again on the Monday after.

Most of the protesters and rioters seem to be relatively healthy people under the age of 30, plus most of the activity is outdoors. So I'm going to make the opposite prediction: The fresh air and their stronger innate immune systems will prevent them from spreading the virus much. Maybe a little bit, but probably not to "superspreader" degree.

Not sure about the age and comorbidity distribution of most of the Covid-19 cases from Mardi Gras, but one of the important facts that was left out of most news reporting about the WA choir practice superspreader event was the fact that most of the choir members were older; the median age was 69.

Among the 61 choir members who attended the March 10 practice, the median age was 69 years (range = 31–83 years)... Median age of those who became ill was 69 years... Among the recognized risk factors for severe illness, the most common was age, with 75.5% of patients aged ≥65 years... All three hospitalized patients had two or more underlying medical conditions.
Link to CDC report