Gyroscopic Investing

https://www.sfgate.com/warriors/article ... 124576.php


Thunder-Jazz game postponed minutes before tip-off, fans told to leave arena as virus fears rise

The NBA has suspended its season until further notice!

Vinny

Sent to me by my friend who introduced me to Dr. Fuhrman. I watch few videos. But in this one Dr. Furhman speaks with his usual forthrightness.

Coronavirus and the flu: Five ways to protect yourself

https://www.drfuhrman.com/elearning/eat ... i=84583235



Vinny

Smith1776 wrote: ↑Wed Mar 11, 2020 8:30 pm Is this the next Black Swan that we've all been waiting for? Is it too early to call?

Ochotona actually called it a month or more ago. "Is this going to be a black swan..." I always rankle a little when a black swan is mentioned in the future tense, but I think it's safe to say the swan has arrived. So, semantics aside, It's just like Ochotona said.

I wonder why the UK is exempted.
Doesn't matter anyway, as the horse is out of the barn, but...

Very poor speech and no wonder futures plummeted.

Yes, this is the very definition of a black swan. It at least will likely get us into a recession with a contractory Q1 and Q2 reading. I do think all the stimulus they are providing, and will continue to provide, will leave a lot of dry kindling out there for the economy to take back off whenever it is that this thing does finally get behind us (not only that, but with 2 bad quarters in a row it leaves a very low bar to beat). I still believe the stock market will be recovered by the election. But I do think a 30% correction would be very reasonable and probable at this point. Typical bear market is around a 30% correction. Getting that out of a virus that nobody knew existed 2 months ago, yeah I would say this constitutes a black swan if anything does.

dualstow wrote: ↑Wed Mar 11, 2020 8:38 pm

Smith1776 wrote: ↑Wed Mar 11, 2020 8:30 pm Is this the next Black Swan that we've all been waiting for? Is it too early to call?

Ochotona actually called it a month or more ago. "Is this going to be a black swan..." I always rankle a little when a black swan is mentioned in the future tense, but I think it's safe to say that it has arrived. So, semantics aside, It's just like Ochotona said.

I wonder why the UK is exempted.
Doesn't matter anyway, as the horse is out of the barn, but...

He is more prescient than I then. A month ago I was very firmly in the camp of "the fear the media is spreading is worse than the virus itself spreading."

I still think there's some validity to that view. However, in the past few days I have to admit I did not give the whole thing the credence it seems to have deserved. It is interesting to see this whole thing from the unique perspective of a PP investor. At least so far (knock on wood), we don't have to repeat the mantra of "Stay the course!" to steel ourselves the way many equity heavy people have.

Holding a clenched fist and simply repeating "stay the course" reminds me of the opening scene in Saving Private Ryan. You know, where you see all those soldiers clutching religious icons and praying. While the PP/GB folks are like Tom Hanks and his crew just getting to work. Of course, I don't mean that in a denigrating way towards either religion or other investors.

Meanwhile, this whole escalation in terms of what individuals, companies, and governments are doing is like a reverse Cold War escalation. One country puts on a travel ban. Another responds with a similar restriction. Individuals hoard certain consumer items. A few companies benefit, but most will see declining traffic. People preparing for the worst tends to make the worst case scenario self-fulfilling.

Either way, this is what we hold the PP for. For exactly the reasons Browne enunciated many years ago. "Nothing turns out as expected."

dualstow wrote: ↑Wed Mar 11, 2020 8:38 pm

Smith1776 wrote: ↑Wed Mar 11, 2020 8:30 pm Is this the next Black Swan that we've all been waiting for? Is it too early to call?

Ochotona actually called it a month or more ago. "Is this going to be a black swan..." I always rankle a little when a black swan is mentioned in the future tense, but I think it's safe to say the swan has arrived. So, semantics aside, It's just like Ochotona said.

I wonder why the UK is exempted.
Doesn't matter anyway, as the horse is out of the barn, but...

Who can answer your excellent question? They may be an island but in a much smaller country they still have half as many cases as us. You'd expect them to proportionately have a much lower fraction of ours.

Vinny

Smith1776 wrote: ↑Wed Mar 11, 2020 8:53 pm A month ago I was very firmly in the camp of "the fear the media is spreading is worse than the virus itself spreading."

Me too.
---
Could be, Vinny. Could be.

dualstow, how did you know that my favourite animal was the Canadian Lynx?

I hit the gym every night around this time (about to leave in fact). I am wondering if it is just a matter of time before one day I walk to the front door and it's closed to prevent further virus exposures.

In fact, right now, just the idea of touching those weights gives me just a bit pause.

yankees60 wrote: ↑Wed Mar 11, 2020 8:54 pm

dualstow wrote: ↑Wed Mar 11, 2020 8:38 pm

Smith1776 wrote: ↑Wed Mar 11, 2020 8:30 pm Is this the next Black Swan that we've all been waiting for? Is it too early to call?

Ochotona actually called it a month or more ago. "Is this going to be a black swan..." I always rankle a little when a black swan is mentioned in the future tense, but I think it's safe to say the swan has arrived. So, semantics aside, It's just like Ochotona said.

I wonder why the UK is exempted.
Doesn't matter anyway, as the horse is out of the barn, but...

Who can answer your excellent question? They may be an island but in a much smaller country they still have half as many cases as us. You'd expect them to proportionately have a much lower fraction of ours.

Vinny

Well, they're no longer in an open borders arrangement with Italy, as the EU is.

Still not sure why not ban travel to China though, if you're going to ban Europe.

Yeah this whole situation is definitely giving me a greater respect for the PP/GB. Very few people saw this coming, or took it seriously once they had heard about it. Most people had the view that this could never happen here. I mean, it's been so long you can't blame people for having that attitude. All the foreign viruses we have had in the news over the years that never effected any of us, it's understandable that people wouldn't take it serious enough until it was too late. Also, it goes to show that it's always the unexpected that breaks a market, not the expected. Everyone was so bearish back from late 2018 all the way through Q3 2019. It would have been the first time a recession hit that everyone saw coming, if not for the fact that in Q4 2019 everyone suddenly flipped to extreme bullishness and started panic buying. It roped everyone back into the market just in time for the black swan to actually hit. Throughout all this, I'm down in the ballpark of 6% total right now from the peak. It could be much worse. I'm quite satisfied with that, all things considered. I see a lot of people in the investments slack channel at work freaking out, because they were doing stupid stuff exposing themselves to massive risk to yolo chase the meltup, and in turn held it all the way down.

Xan wrote: ↑Wed Mar 11, 2020 9:07 pm

yankees60 wrote: ↑Wed Mar 11, 2020 8:54 pm

dualstow wrote: ↑Wed Mar 11, 2020 8:38 pm

Smith1776 wrote: ↑Wed Mar 11, 2020 8:30 pm Is this the next Black Swan that we've all been waiting for? Is it too early to call?

Ochotona actually called it a month or more ago. "Is this going to be a black swan..." I always rankle a little when a black swan is mentioned in the future tense, but I think it's safe to say the swan has arrived. So, semantics aside, It's just like Ochotona said.

I wonder why the UK is exempted.
Doesn't matter anyway, as the horse is out of the barn, but...

Who can answer your excellent question? They may be an island but in a much smaller country they still have half as many cases as us. You'd expect them to proportionately have a much lower fraction of ours.

Vinny

Well, they're no longer in an open borders arrangement with Italy, as the EU is.

Still not sure why not ban travel to China though, if you're going to ban Europe.

Is it unreasonable for us to have expected him to say. "These restrictions will also not apply to the United Kingdom [because.....]" ?

VInny

Smith1776 wrote: ↑Wed Mar 11, 2020 9:06 pm I hit the gym every night around this time (about to leave in fact). I am wondering if it is just a matter of time before one day I walk to the front door and it's closed to prevent further virus exposures.

I have the perfect solution for that. I have a Rogue power rack with all the fixings at home. My own private gym where nobody can infect my gear, haha. It wasn't cheap, but it was totally worth it, not only for the germs, but also to never again have to wait for a squat rack

The NBA just suspended all games indefinitely after Utah Jazz C Rudy Gobert was confirmed with corona virus.

Smith1776 wrote: ↑Wed Mar 11, 2020 9:04 pm dualstow, how did you know that my favourite animal was the Canadian Lynx?

I think it's got excellent balance, like the pp.
I just wish I had an emoji for Xan.

pmward wrote: ↑Wed Mar 11, 2020 9:13 pm

Smith1776 wrote: ↑Wed Mar 11, 2020 9:06 pm I hit the gym every night around this time (about to leave in fact). I am wondering if it is just a matter of time before one day I walk to the front door and it's closed to prevent further virus exposures.

I have the perfect solution for that. I have a Rogue power rack with all the fixings at home. My own private gym where nobody can infect my gear, haha. It wasn't cheap, but it was totally worth it, not only for the germs, but also to never again have to wait for a squat rack

Another way we are similar. In 2011 I paid (I think) $275 for an $800 used Powertec setup - Half rack, 275 pounds of Olympic weights, Olympic bar, and fancy bench. The person I bought it from both delivered it to my house AND set up all up.

I've always maintained my own home workout as it means I can do it whenever I want to plus I am wasting no travel time to and from somewhere plus the time getting ready to go somewhere out of the house.

And, at my age, I need at least 5 minute recovery times between certain sets so I just head to this computer and get certain small tasks done during those 5 minutes.

Vinny

Read this article: https://medium.com/@tomaspueyo/coronavi ... d3d9cd99ca

Smith1776 wrote: ↑Wed Mar 11, 2020 9:06 pm I hit the gym every night around this time (about to leave in fact). I am wondering if it is just a matter of time before one day I walk to the front door and it's closed to prevent further virus exposures.

In fact, right now, just the idea of touching those weights gives me just a bit pause.

We went to the gym on Monday for the last time until this is over.

pmward wrote: ↑Wed Mar 11, 2020 9:11 pm Yeah this whole situation is definitely giving me a greater respect for the PP/GB. Very few people saw this coming, or took it seriously once they had heard about it. Most people had the view that this could never happen here. I mean, it's been so long you can't blame people for having that attitude. All the foreign viruses we have had in the news over the years that never effected any of us, it's understandable that people wouldn't take it serious enough until it was too late. Also, it goes to show that it's always the unexpected that breaks a market, not the expected. Everyone was so bearish back from late 2018 all the way through Q3 2019. It would have been the first time a recession hit that everyone saw coming, if not for the fact that in Q4 2019 everyone suddenly flipped to extreme bullishness and started panic buying. It roped everyone back into the market just in time for the black swan to actually hit. Throughout all this, I'm down in the ballpark of 6% total right now from the peak. It could be much worse. I'm quite satisfied with that, all things considered. I see a lot of people in the investments slack channel at work freaking out, because they were doing stupid stuff exposing themselves to massive risk to yolo chase the meltup, and in turn held it all the way down.

It has given me a greater respect for gold, which wasn't easy.

My local gym had about the same patronage as it normally does tonight. No major change.

But the grocery store? Those bare shelves in the second picture are where all the toilet paper usually is.

Maddy wrote: ↑Wed Mar 11, 2020 7:38 pm I totally f***ing give up.

As colleges are closing down in a desperate effort to contain the spread of CoVid-19, students are heading out of the country in droves on "dream vacations."

Ashley Henkel, 20, told NBC News that cheap flights across North America have allowed her to fulfill her dream of traveling across the country. When asked about Covid-19, she responded, "Whatever."

https://www.zerohedge.com/markets/if-i- ... ss-america

You know, every time a millennial whines about "the world they're leaving us," I think to myself, "You deserve the world you're getting."

Smith1776 wrote: ↑Thu Mar 12, 2020 1:44 am My local gym had about the same patronage as it normally does tonight. No major change.

But the grocery store? Those bare shelves in the second picture are where all the toilet paper usually is.



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Is that you, just about center, in the gym picture?

Vinny

He’s probably the guy behind the camera, Vinny, and not pictured.

Smith1776 wrote: ↑Wed Mar 11, 2020 9:06 pm I hit the gym every night around this time (about to leave in fact). I am wondering if it is just a matter of time before one day I walk to the front door and it's closed to prevent further virus exposures.

In fact, right now, just the idea of touching those weights gives me just a bit pause.

I went to the gym Tuesday and that is my last visit for a while, though I suspect it will be closed very shortly anyway.

I am retired (for now, at least) but my wife still works as a freelancer. Her work requires being with lots of people. That all started disappearing Tuesday morning. Looks like a lot of damn time to sit tight. At least now I can catch up on watching NBA games. Wait. What???