Gyroscopic Investing

Don't look now, but gold is over $1300 at the moment. That's up about $150 for 2017, for about a 13% increase for the year.

Sure, the stock market has done even better, about 20% as measured by the S&P 500 excluding dividends, so probably around 22% including them.

T-bonds seem to be up about 8% YTD on a total return basis.

If we assume that cash has had a yield of 1% this year, the HBPP should be up roughly 11% for the year.

Not too shabby, right?

Not shabby at all. A good year. I'll take 10 more of these please...

Happy New Year!

At the present rate of increase YTD, compounded daily, gold will be at $3800 by the end of this year!

And at this rate I will break even by April 1st... (No kidding!)

Libertarian666 wrote:At the present rate of increase YTD, compounded daily, gold will be at $3800 by the end of this year!

It was supposed to wait until I could rebalance my IRA contributions into it, dammit!

Someone is trying to beat gold down this afternoon.

The latest FED minutes were released and gold dropped like a ton of gold. Rebounded nicely.

Do I hear 1350?
hey-oooooooohhhh!!

dualstow wrote:Do I hear 1350?
hey-oooooooohhhh!!

We are here once again, My physical gold return since I started buying in 2008 is dead even (sigh...)

Cortopassi wrote:

dualstow wrote:Do I hear 1350?
hey-oooooooohhhh!!

We are here once again, My physical gold return since I started buying in 2008 is dead even (sigh...)

I really don't want gold to take off right now, as I'm going to be buying quite a bit.

Probably a fair amount will be paper gold like IAU because I expect a big stock market drop after which I will establish something more like a 4x25 PP, and physical is too inconvenient and expensive in that situation. I'm certainly not buying bonds or stocks right here.

Cortopassi wrote:

dualstow wrote:Do I hear 1350?
hey-oooooooohhhh!!

We are here once again, My physical gold return since I started buying in 2008 is dead even (sigh...)

If it takes a big dive from here, do look into taking a tax loss and rebuying it. See if you can cover the cost of re-acquisition with the tax loss.

When you do buy stocks, Libertarian666, will it be your first time?

Libertarian666 wrote: ...
I really don't want gold to take off right now, as I'm going to be buying quite a bit.

Probably a fair amount will be paper gold like IAU because I expect a big stock market drop after which I will establish something more like a 4x25 PP, and physical is too inconvenient and expensive in that situation. I'm certainly not buying bonds or stocks right here.

dualstow wrote:When you do buy stocks, Libertarian666, will it be your first time?

Libertarian666 wrote: ...
I really don't want gold to take off right now, as I'm going to be buying quite a bit.

Probably a fair amount will be paper gold like IAU because I expect a big stock market drop after which I will establish something more like a 4x25 PP, and physical is too inconvenient and expensive in that situation. I'm certainly not buying bonds or stocks right here.

No, I ran a standard 4x25 PP during the 1990's.

whats your stock buying trigger and how long will you wait...

boglerdude wrote:whats your stock buying trigger and how long will you wait...

I haven't developed a detailed plan yet because I don't have the cash yet.

My general plan is to try to capitalize on a panic like 2008 in stocks and bonds, which I will be able to do without tax consequences because the funds are in a retirement account.

If it never happens, then I'll be "stuck" with gold, which is fine with me.

ochotona wrote:https://jimrickards.blogspot.com/2018/0 ... y.html?m=1

Sounds reasonable, but of course timing is always very difficult.

Gold is useless and the PP has been very disappointing.
If stocks continue to fall I am switching to a BH portfolio.
This is what we have been waiting for and the PP declines like everything else. Sad but true.

Deleveraging? Selling gold to cover margin calls? Manipulation? Locusts?

Here's the problem. Most no one still knows about actually owning gold as an investment. I heard, on the radio this morning, "with interest rates rising and stocks falling, where are there alternative places to invest?" I shit you not, the answer that came out of whoever was talking was "How about Bitcoin?"

Gold is off the radar for the majority. I haven't heard the gold price stated on the radio reports in a long time.

It is still the only asset positive for 2018.

Perhaps few investors own gold since it doesn’t offer the safety aspects we expect. The portfolio dropped like a rock, where was gold? Nowhere.

buddtholomew wrote:Gold is useless and the PP has been very disappointing.
If stocks continue to fall I am switching to a BH portfolio.
This is what we have been waiting for and the PP declines like everything else. Sad but true.

By all means, go right ahead and switch to a BH portfolio.

You'll be back as soon as we have another 2008-2009, with a lot less money.

Libertarian666 wrote:

buddtholomew wrote:Gold is useless and the PP has been very disappointing.
If stocks continue to fall I am switching to a BH portfolio.
This is what we have been waiting for and the PP declines like everything else. Sad but true.

By all means, go right ahead and switch to a BH portfolio.

You'll be back as soon as we have another 2008-2009, with a lot less money.

Why, because of gold? Haha...down another 1.25% now.
Keep dreaming buddy.
Explain how I quadrupled my portfolio since 2008/9 using BH 70/30 allocation.

buddtholomew wrote:

Libertarian666 wrote:

buddtholomew wrote:Gold is useless and the PP has been very disappointing.
If stocks continue to fall I am switching to a BH portfolio.
This is what we have been waiting for and the PP declines like everything else. Sad but true.

By all means, go right ahead and switch to a BH portfolio.

You'll be back as soon as we have another 2008-2009, with a lot less money.

Why, because of gold? Haha...down another 1.25% now.
Keep dreaming buddy.
Explain how I quadrupled my portfolio since 2008/9 using BH 70/30 allocation.

You need an explanation of how you have had good results with a stock-heavy allocation starting from the bottom of the biggest stock market drop since the 1930's?

If that's really true, I think you need to find a financial advisor who can explain the facts of life to you.

Libertarian666 wrote:

buddtholomew wrote:

Libertarian666 wrote:
By all means, go right ahead and switch to a BH portfolio.

You'll be back as soon as we have another 2008-2009, with a lot less money.

Why, because of gold? Haha...down another 1.25% now.
Keep dreaming buddy.
Explain how I quadrupled my portfolio since 2008/9 using BH 70/30 allocation.

You need an explanation of how you have had good results with a stock-heavy allocation starting from the bottom of the biggest stock market drop since the 1930's?

If that's really true, I think you need to find a financial advisor who can explain the facts of life to you.

I’m asking you to explain Mr. I bought 1 gold coin at 300.
Read! And you call yourself a technical writer HAHA.

We all had to know, using history as the guide, that this smash yesterday would cause some volatility, but by the end of the day the market was going to be green.

And that is as good a reason as any for gold to go down. That we are still decently above $1300 is positive. Not that we can't go lower. This market bubble has taken 9 years to inflate. Not going to pop in two days.