Gyroscopic Investing

pp4me wrote: ↑Mon Sep 20, 2021 2:46 pm
I believe the FDA decision did advise booster shots for those over 65.

I received an email from the health department when it came time for me to get my Pfizer shots back in March. Nothing yet about a booster yet but at this point I'm leaning towards declining the offer.

I heard something today which affirms your first sentence.

I will get the booster as soon as it is available.

Some percentage of the *slow Learners* will receive the top off booster.... And as a consequence, remove themselves as a liability from Medicare.

Some fun charts and insightful questions from Tom woods....


https://mailchi.mp/tomwoods/surprising

murphy_p_t wrote: ↑Mon Sep 20, 2021 9:36 pm Some percentage of the *slow Learners* will receive the top off booster.... And as a consequence, remove themselves as a liability from Medicare.

Well, we can’t “all” be as “smart” and “discerning” as you, “Murph.”

Good Sam Harris episode here. Caller asks why he won’t do a new show with Bret Weinstein. Easier to set some small fires than to put them out.
https://samharris.org/podcasts/ask-anything-18/

yankees60 wrote: ↑Mon Sep 20, 2021 6:32 pm

pp4me wrote: ↑Mon Sep 20, 2021 2:46 pm I believe the FDA decision did advise booster shots for those over 65.

I received an email from the health department when it came time for me to get my Pfizer shots back in March. Nothing yet about a booster yet but at this point I'm leaning towards declining the offer.

I heard something today which affirms your first sentence.

I will get the booster as soon as it is available.

I'm going to deal with the booster the way I originally intended to do with the first two shots - wait and see until more evidence emerges about possible side-effects. I ended up getting them back in March because we intended to go to Europe in the fall and figured it would be required. I think I was right about that but the Europe plan is still on hold. Instead I just booked a trip to Maui next month.

I don't have any co-morbidities besides age but I do have some auto-immune conditions, namely psoriasis and allergies. I've seen a flare up of both since the shots, the former being only mild, but the latter the worse I've seen in a long time. It's even starting to affect my eyes which is something I've never seen before (no pun intended).

I've made it this far without contracting COVID and that includes air travel on several occasions, a trip to Disney World with some visitors, and as much social activity as I usually do - all of it maskless whenever I can get away with it. So at this point I'm assigning greater risk to the booster shots than COVID.

I will have more to say about covid in the covid topic if I decide it's a high enough priority for me to spend the time doing so so for now I'll confined my words to injections.

I'd never had a flu shot.

Two years ago at my annual Medicare exam I was convinced by my doctor that I should finally get one. I was supposed to go to another part of the building to get it after my visit from him was over.

However, when I was being checked out the person never said to me, "Now go here for your flu shot." And, I also completely forgot about it. A short while later while in my office I remembered I'd not received that shot. Even though my office was only a 5 minute walk from that medical building I was not sufficiently motivated to go back and get the shot.

Afterward each time I was in Stop & Shop I'd see the sign for free flu shots. Each time I'd ask myself if I wanted to spend the time getting the shot and each time I'd tell myself no. I was more interested in getting in and out of the store as quickly as possible. If I am regularly going there I am in and out in about 25 minutes.

Today I went there for the first time in over a month.

Before I'd even started to pick out any food I was walking by the pharmacy. I decided that today I would get that shot.

I asked if they were giving it and if they recommended it. They said Yes to both questions. I then said that I'd take it.

I first had to fill out 3 pages by hand, which takes me awhile because the only time I ever write anything these days is for some form of medical questionnaire.

I turned that in and it seemed like forever that the pharmacist was entering information into a computer. As I was waiting, waiting, waiting...I told myself..."this was why I never stopped any of those other days two years ago and I was right for not doing so." Finally he had entered everything so that he could give me the shot. The shot took less then a minute.

The entire process from when I first asked my questions to getting that shot? About 25 minutes!

I also asked him about the price of the shingles shot. $180 for each or $360 total. I can easily afford that but I'm going to see if I can choose a Medicare drug plan starting in January in which the increased annual premiums for a different plan than I am on will be less that $360.

The issue I had last year was that when I asked my doctor's office what I should be looking for for a drug plan to cover for the shingles vaccine I could never find that specific vaccine for any Medicare drug plan. Now I have over 3 months to get the correct vaccine name to match the Medicare drug plans.

Finally the only issues I had with my two Pfizer shots were when I lifted up my left arm where the shots had been made I felt a tiny amount of soreness in the area of the shot.

So far...from my flu shot...I have felt nothing. Lifting up my left arm produces no type pain.

yankees60 wrote: ↑Tue Sep 21, 2021 7:33 pm
I asked if they were giving it and if they recommended it. They said Yes to both questions. I then said that I'd take it.

Is there a pharmacy out there that has shots available but would not recommend you take them if you ask?

jalanlong wrote: ↑Wed Sep 22, 2021 10:16 am

yankees60 wrote: ↑Tue Sep 21, 2021 7:33 pm

I asked if they were giving it and if they recommended it. They said Yes to both questions. I then said that I'd take it.

Is there a pharmacy out there that has shots available but would not recommend you take them if you ask?

Good question. But probably an honest pharmacist would give an honest answer.

I asked him about the shingles shot and he told me that he'd got his last year, which to me seems to be no greater endorsement.

Update on my shot....I felt nothing yesterday from the shot.

So far nothing at all today.

Are there some type people who seem to be more prone to reactions from these vaccination shots while other type people are far less prone?

jalanlong wrote: ↑Wed Sep 22, 2021 10:16 am

yankees60 wrote: ↑Tue Sep 21, 2021 7:33 pm
I asked if they were giving it and if they recommended it. They said Yes to both questions. I then said that I'd take it.

Is there a pharmacy out there that has shots available but would not recommend you take them if you ask?

One time I asked a waiter at a restaurant if they recommended the duck. They slightly discouraged, so I passed.

Might be worth asking the pharmacy to see their reaction.

whatchamacallit wrote: ↑Wed Sep 22, 2021 11:25 am

jalanlong wrote: ↑Wed Sep 22, 2021 10:16 am

yankees60 wrote: ↑Tue Sep 21, 2021 7:33 pm
I asked if they were giving it and if they recommended it. They said Yes to both questions. I then said that I'd take it.

Is there a pharmacy out there that has shots available but would not recommend you take them if you ask?

One time I asked a waiter at a restaurant if they recommended the duck. They slightly discouraged, so I passed.

Might be worth asking the pharmacy to see their reaction.

When I worked at a sandwich shop in college, people would always come in and ask what I liked or would recommend. I have no idea why people cared specifically what I liked. I would always defer by telling them the most popular selling sandwiches. Most of them would take that response but some would still press on and say "But what do YOU like?" So I would finally say "Well I like the roast beef" to which they would always answer "Oh, I don't like roast beef." Yeah that was kinda my point!! Why are you asking me what I like? Don't you know what you like or don't?

I never understood that at Blockbuster either. Here is a shelf with employee Steve's movie recommendations. Why would I pick a movie based on what a stranger likes? Nobody knows my taste better than me!

jalanlong wrote: ↑Wed Sep 22, 2021 11:29 am

whatchamacallit wrote: ↑Wed Sep 22, 2021 11:25 am

jalanlong wrote: ↑Wed Sep 22, 2021 10:16 am

yankees60 wrote: ↑Tue Sep 21, 2021 7:33 pm
I asked if they were giving it and if they recommended it. They said Yes to both questions. I then said that I'd take it.

Is there a pharmacy out there that has shots available but would not recommend you take them if you ask?

One time I asked a waiter at a restaurant if they recommended the duck. They slightly discouraged, so I passed.

Might be worth asking the pharmacy to see their reaction.

When I worked at a sandwich shop in college, people would always come in and ask what I liked or would recommend. I have no idea why people cared specifically what I liked. I would always defer by telling them the most popular selling sandwiches. Most of them would take that response but some would still press on and say "But what do YOU like?" So I would finally say "Well I like the roast beef" to which they would always answer "Oh, I don't like roast beef." Yeah that was kinda my point!! Why are you asking me what I like? Don't you know what you like or don't?

I never understood that at Blockbuster either. Here is a shelf with employee Steve's movie recommendations. Why would I pick a movie based on what a stranger likes? Nobody knows my taste better than me!

At Blockbuster, if you find an employee with a similar taste in movies to your own, then you might be well served to try something he recommends that you haven't heard of. You're likely to like it.

Hearing that somebody is personally consuming something they're serving is also a very useful thing. The pharmacist who took the shingles vaccination himself is a good example. As is the IIRC 96% of MDs who have taken a COVID vaccine. In business this is called "eating your own dog food": for example, for a while, Microsoft was running Hotmail on Linux rather than Windows. They were not eating their own dog food.

Now that we're getting into the area of recommendations/endorsements, about 15-20 years ago I was at a Denny's and for my toast selection I chose rye toast. My waiter was an older gentleman who got all excited and exclaimed, " Excellent choice sir!!! Excellent Choice! I've often had the rye toast myself. Excellent choice!!!" Like I had just won the lottery or something. It was frikkin' hilarious.

Xan wrote: ↑Wed Sep 22, 2021 11:39 am As is the IIRC 96% of MDs who have taken a COVID vaccine. In business this is called "eating your own dog food": for example, for a while, Microsoft was running Hotmail on Linux rather than Windows. They were not eating their own dog food.

But how do you know the 96% is actually correct?

That was from an AMA survey of 300 doctors: AMA survey shows over 96% of doctors fully vaccinated against COVID-19


But the AAPS conducted a survey of 700 doctors and found this: Majority of Physicians Decline COVID Shots, according to Survey

Perhaps they're both telling the truth as they know it, but how can anyone know for sure? Both sample sizes are incredibly small compared to the number of doctors in the US.

The only thing that's certain is that the story repeated most often will be believed by the most people.

flyingpylon wrote: ↑Wed Sep 22, 2021 11:59 am

Xan wrote: ↑Wed Sep 22, 2021 11:39 am As is the IIRC 96% of MDs who have taken a COVID vaccine. In business this is called "eating your own dog food": for example, for a while, Microsoft was running Hotmail on Linux rather than Windows. They were not eating their own dog food.

But how do you know the 96% is actually correct?

That was from an AMA survey of 300 doctors: AMA survey shows over 96% of doctors fully vaccinated against COVID-19


But the AAPS conducted a survey of 700 doctors and found this: Majority of Physicians Decline COVID Shots, according to Survey

Perhaps they're both telling the truth as they know it, but how can anyone know for sure? Both sample sizes are incredibly small compared to the number of doctors in the US.

The only thing that's certain is that the story repeated most often will be believed by the most people.

By "doctors" do you mean the ~700 people who selected that option on the online form that was open to the general public?

Xan wrote: ↑Wed Sep 22, 2021 12:09 pm

flyingpylon wrote: ↑Wed Sep 22, 2021 11:59 am

Xan wrote: ↑Wed Sep 22, 2021 11:39 am As is the IIRC 96% of MDs who have taken a COVID vaccine. In business this is called "eating your own dog food": for example, for a while, Microsoft was running Hotmail on Linux rather than Windows. They were not eating their own dog food.

But how do you know the 96% is actually correct?

That was from an AMA survey of 300 doctors: AMA survey shows over 96% of doctors fully vaccinated against COVID-19


But the AAPS conducted a survey of 700 doctors and found this: Majority of Physicians Decline COVID Shots, according to Survey

Perhaps they're both telling the truth as they know it, but how can anyone know for sure? Both sample sizes are incredibly small compared to the number of doctors in the US.

The only thing that's certain is that the story repeated most often will be believed by the most people.

By "doctors" do you mean the ~700 people who selected that option on the online form that was open to the general public?

The AAPS called them "physicians" and said they were "invited" to complete the survey, which also included non-physicians.

I'm not saying the AAPS is correct.

I would ask "What can you tell us about the AMA's methodology?", but that's not really my point.

Xan wrote: ↑Wed Sep 22, 2021 11:39 am

jalanlong wrote: ↑Wed Sep 22, 2021 11:29 am

whatchamacallit wrote: ↑Wed Sep 22, 2021 11:25 am

jalanlong wrote: ↑Wed Sep 22, 2021 10:16 am

yankees60 wrote: ↑Tue Sep 21, 2021 7:33 pm
I asked if they were giving it and if they recommended it. They said Yes to both questions. I then said that I'd take it.

Is there a pharmacy out there that has shots available but would not recommend you take them if you ask?

One time I asked a waiter at a restaurant if they recommended the duck. They slightly discouraged, so I passed.

Might be worth asking the pharmacy to see their reaction.

When I worked at a sandwich shop in college, people would always come in and ask what I liked or would recommend. I have no idea why people cared specifically what I liked. I would always defer by telling them the most popular selling sandwiches. Most of them would take that response but some would still press on and say "But what do YOU like?" So I would finally say "Well I like the roast beef" to which they would always answer "Oh, I don't like roast beef." Yeah that was kinda my point!! Why are you asking me what I like? Don't you know what you like or don't?

I never understood that at Blockbuster either. Here is a shelf with employee Steve's movie recommendations. Why would I pick a movie based on what a stranger likes? Nobody knows my taste better than me!

At Blockbuster, if you find an employee with a similar taste in movies to your own, then you might be well served to try something he recommends that you haven't heard of. You're likely to like it.

Hearing that somebody is personally consuming something they're serving is also a very useful thing. The pharmacist who took the shingles vaccination himself is a good example. As is the IIRC 96% of MDs who have taken a COVID vaccine. In business this is called "eating your own dog food": for example, for a while, Microsoft was running Hotmail on Linux rather than Windows. They were not eating their own dog food.

Enron employees were eating their own cooking as well! I worked for a bank once that mandated every employee have an account there in order to get paid. They would not cut checks nor direct deposit into any bank accounts other than their own. They saw it as you "being loyal" to them. I am sure when people saw my bank card and or knew where I banked they probably thought it was great that I banked where I worked and that probably meant I knew they were trustworthy, when in reality I was forced to do so.

I am by nature a very suspicious person. Just because an employee consumes (or says they consume) something does not affect my decision whatsoever. They may have been coerced, following the pack, or just lying to make a sale.

yankees60 wrote: ↑Wed Sep 22, 2021 11:21 am Are there some type people who seem to be more prone to reactions from these vaccination shots while other type people are far less prone?

This Nature article addresses that question in quite a bit of detail.

The authors of that article hypothesize that individual differences in symptoms after a vax shot (e.g., arm soreness and/or flu-like symptoms) are mainly due to individual differences in their innate immune response, which is largely independent of their adaptive immune response (i.e., antibody production) that is the ultimate purpose of the vax.

In other words, the authors argue that people will tend to have similar adaptive immune responses (antibody production) to a vax shot even if their innate immune responses (potential arm soreness and/or flu-like symptoms) are different. And those differences in innate immune response can be influenced by various factors like age and gender.

flyingpylon wrote: ↑Wed Sep 22, 2021 12:30 pm

Xan wrote: ↑Wed Sep 22, 2021 12:09 pm

flyingpylon wrote: ↑Wed Sep 22, 2021 11:59 am

Xan wrote: ↑Wed Sep 22, 2021 11:39 am As is the IIRC 96% of MDs who have taken a COVID vaccine. In business this is called "eating your own dog food": for example, for a while, Microsoft was running Hotmail on Linux rather than Windows. They were not eating their own dog food.

But how do you know the 96% is actually correct?

That was from an AMA survey of 300 doctors: AMA survey shows over 96% of doctors fully vaccinated against COVID-19


But the AAPS conducted a survey of 700 doctors and found this: Majority of Physicians Decline COVID Shots, according to Survey

Perhaps they're both telling the truth as they know it, but how can anyone know for sure? Both sample sizes are incredibly small compared to the number of doctors in the US.

The only thing that's certain is that the story repeated most often will be believed by the most people.

By "doctors" do you mean the ~700 people who selected that option on the online form that was open to the general public?

The AAPS called them "physicians" and said they were "invited" to complete the survey, which also included non-physicians.

I'm not saying the AAPS is correct.

I would ask "What can you tell us about the AMA's methodology?", but that's not really my point.

The link you sent links to the report, which describes the methodology:
https://www.ama-assn.org/system/files/2 ... report.pdf
The survey was on the WebMD "physician portal". Presumably there's some restriction that only actual physicians can go there.

Your AAPS link linked to the survey they used:
https://drive.google.com/file/d/1PIIqBu ... Rebj9/view
It specifically says "no login required".

I'll let you assess the difference in professionalism between the two.

But as you say none of this is your point, then what is your point? Is it to try to equate these two surveys in terms of believability?

Xan wrote: ↑Wed Sep 22, 2021 1:10 pm

flyingpylon wrote: ↑Wed Sep 22, 2021 12:30 pm

Xan wrote: ↑Wed Sep 22, 2021 12:09 pm

flyingpylon wrote: ↑Wed Sep 22, 2021 11:59 am

Xan wrote: ↑Wed Sep 22, 2021 11:39 am As is the IIRC 96% of MDs who have taken a COVID vaccine. In business this is called "eating your own dog food": for example, for a while, Microsoft was running Hotmail on Linux rather than Windows. They were not eating their own dog food.

But how do you know the 96% is actually correct?

That was from an AMA survey of 300 doctors: AMA survey shows over 96% of doctors fully vaccinated against COVID-19


But the AAPS conducted a survey of 700 doctors and found this: Majority of Physicians Decline COVID Shots, according to Survey

Perhaps they're both telling the truth as they know it, but how can anyone know for sure? Both sample sizes are incredibly small compared to the number of doctors in the US.

The only thing that's certain is that the story repeated most often will be believed by the most people.

By "doctors" do you mean the ~700 people who selected that option on the online form that was open to the general public?

The AAPS called them "physicians" and said they were "invited" to complete the survey, which also included non-physicians.

I'm not saying the AAPS is correct.

I would ask "What can you tell us about the AMA's methodology?", but that's not really my point.

The link you sent links to the report, which describes the methodology:
https://www.ama-assn.org/system/files/2 ... report.pdf
The survey was on the WebMD "physician portal". Presumably there's some restriction that only actual physicians can go there.

Your AAPS link linked to the survey they used:
https://drive.google.com/file/d/1PIIqBu ... Rebj9/view
It specifically says "no login required".

I'll let you assess the difference in professionalism between the two.

But as you say none of this is your point, then what is your point? Is it to try to equate these two surveys in terms of believability?

My point was that simple statements like "96% of MDs have taken a COVID vaccine" are relatively worthless. It's okay if you disagree.

jalanlong wrote: ↑Wed Sep 22, 2021 11:29 am … but some would still press on and say "But what do YOU like?" So I would finally say "Well I like the roast beef" to which they would always answer "Oh, I don't like roast beef." Yeah that was kinda my point!
…

That *is* weird. My sister-in-law does that. I can see feeling out the situation to get a subtle “avoid the duck” warning from a waiter, but the personal taste of a stranger really is irrelevant. Maybe they’re just indecisive.

barrett wrote: ↑Wed Sep 22, 2021 11:56 am ….
Like I had just won the lottery or something. It was frikkin' hilarious.

Excellent post, Barrett. Just excellent, sir!

dualstow wrote: ↑Wed Sep 22, 2021 2:32 pm That *is* weird. My sister-in-law does that. I can see feeling out the situation to get a subtle “avoid the duck” warning from a waiter, but the personal taste of a stranger really is irrelevant. Maybe they’re just indecisive.

If you are at a nice restaurant, you can ask the waiter what the most popular dish or two is, or ask the waiter what their favorite dish is. Unless it is a dish I don't like (in which case I just thank them for the info), I've taken their recommendation many times and discovered really good dishes I wouldn't have otherwise ordered. They can order anything from the menu and at least you are unlikely to get a bad dish.

Cortopassi wrote: ↑Fri Sep 17, 2021 3:40 pm Wait I thought the powers that be, and/or democrats, and/or governments, all want to keep on injecting us? Hmmm, this throws a slight wrench into that narrative.

But I am sure someone will figure out some devious reason those sneaky bastards are doing this.

I was hoping you were right but latest news is cdc now approved anyway.

I 1000% more afraid of the mandates than the virus. Terrifying.

How the CDC creates mandates
https://youtu.be/SVtEGNkWm24

flyingpylon wrote: ↑Wed Sep 22, 2021 1:28 pm My point was that simple statements like "96% of MDs have taken a COVID vaccine" are relatively worthless. It's okay if you disagree.

So far we've only heard of nurses refusing the vaccine when mandates are in place. In New York, the new governor said not to worry, those nurses are expendable and can be easily replaced. Sounds like an even greater opportunity to make a lot of money for all the travelling Filipino nurses I know (and they are making a lot of money - you should see their home remodeling projects).

Still waiting for the story about a doctor being fired or stripped of hospital privileges for not taking the vaccine. That's when it will get really interesting.

Hospitals are short staffed almost everywhere in the USA.
Hospitals are threatening to fire qualified staff over vaccination status.

Make of that what you will.