Gyroscopic Investing

{ DeepSeek continued }
Did you give it your name and date of birth?

dualstow wrote: ↑Mon Jan 27, 2025 2:30 pm { DeepSeek continued }
Did you give it your name and date of birth?

From elsewhere:

"There are US hosted versions. And you could host their smaller model in a local VM. You can even shut off internet access to that VM.

Given that it's open source, and given these constraints, I wouldn't be in the least concerned. In fact, running locally gives you more privacy than Claude, ChatGPT, Gemini, CoPilot etc."

To directly answer your question.

I gave it my name, town, state, zip code. No need to give it my date of birth. It has ZERO record of me existing in any way.

Hmm, I guess it could get some of that by googling. Even I have that, plus your street and your area code.

The thing about DeepSeek is that it’s vastly more efficient than existing AI tools and thus has the potential to destroy the existing business models built around them. Some say it’s the start of a new world in AI. It takes time for markets to appreciate that level of change, it could get choppy or even ugly for a while, I guess we’ll see.

dualstow wrote: ↑Mon Jan 27, 2025 2:56 pm Hmm, I guess it could get some of that by googling. Even I have that, plus your street and your area code.

Of course. That is why I tried something simple to see what it could give me beyond a simple internet search.

The strange thing with now doing an internet search is that I thought nothing went away on the internet. A few decades ago when I'd search on me there'd be all kinds of things that came back. Now almost all of it no longer appears.

flyingpylon wrote: ↑Mon Jan 27, 2025 3:15 pm The thing about DeepSeek is that it’s vastly more efficient than existing AI tools and thus has the potential to destroy the existing business models built around them. Some say it’s the start of a new world in AI. It takes time for markets to appreciate that level of change, it could get choppy or even ugly for a while, I guess we’ll see.

What good is it, though, if you have efficiency but no effectiveness?

Intelligence agency tools. Story about FBIs largest sting:

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=kY-T2EPU1_g
https://www.sandiegouniontribune.com/20 ... ticipated/
https://www.wired.com/story/inside-bigg ... n-history/

yankees60 wrote: ↑Mon Jan 27, 2025 7:52 pm

flyingpylon wrote: ↑Mon Jan 27, 2025 3:15 pm The thing about DeepSeek is that it’s vastly more efficient than existing AI tools and thus has the potential to destroy the existing business models built around them. Some say it’s the start of a new world in AI. It takes time for markets to appreciate that level of change, it could get choppy or even ugly for a while, I guess we’ll see.

What good is it, though, if you have efficiency but no effectiveness?

Oh the effectiveness will come, and it probably won’t be long since the whole thing is open source.

Dow futures down 650. Tariffs. Buckle up!

ochotona wrote: ↑Mon Feb 03, 2025 4:58 am Dow futures down 650. Tariffs. Buckle up!

Another good day for long bonds?

Mexico tarriffs paused.
This is tiring, isn’t it.

dualstow wrote: ↑Mon Feb 03, 2025 10:43 am Mexico tarriffs paused.
This is tiring, isn’t it.

Should not have expected any less if you voted for Trump Round Two!

Can't remember if I stated how I voted but whoever wins, I tend to support him/her (yes, so far always a him) and hope for the best.

dualstow wrote: ↑Mon Feb 03, 2025 2:05 pm Can't remember if I stated how I voted but whoever wins, I tend to support him/her (yes, so far always a him) and hope for the best.

I believe you had in the last week when you stated that previously you'd voted for the Democratic candidate.

Yeah, I usually vote Dem.

Actually, how long should I wait before knowing with the least of the least certainty where the stocks would go in short-mid-term
Was waiting to get into some dividend stocks, and that looked like some sort of dip (was expecting it to be confirmed today).. and boom - 10K troops brought to the Mexican border, stocks up. Kind of Trump-butterfly effect.

Trumperfly Effect

dualstow wrote: ↑Tue Feb 04, 2025 6:33 am Trumperfly Effect

SUPERB!

The FAMED Dualstow wit!

Heh, just read your reply and oddly enough, as I'm focused on the front one (of my set of screens) I noticed the monstrous guy pasted on below staring at me from the left. Not the best possible experience brought by Microsoft to its Windows users (kind of appearing as treath :-) )
But also, dunno why it reminded me of Trump...

It’s got to be the blond hair. (And yes, they both put out bulls** regularly).
I didn’t guess you’d be a Windows guy, Vil.

Does anyone here still hold some Berkshire stock? If so, how do you feel about the growing cash hoard that isn't being deployed?

Smith1776 wrote: ↑Sat Feb 15, 2025 10:16 am Does anyone here still hold some Berkshire stock? If so, how do you feel about the growing cash hoard that isn't being deployed?

Yes, and I plan to hold it even after Warren B passes away.
Fine with the cash hoard. Glad I don’t have to pay tax on the interest.

Smith1776 wrote: ↑Sat Feb 15, 2025 10:16 am Does anyone here still hold some Berkshire stock? If so, how do you feel about the growing cash hoard that isn't being deployed?

I was about to answer no but checked the components of two S&P 500 funds (FXAIX & SPY) and I see that about 1.67% of the stock my wife & I hold is Berkshire.

I'll make an assumption that Berkshire does not have $325,000,000,000 under mattresses and that it is invested in some mix of safe short-term holdings. Let's say it's three-month treasuries which at this moment yield 4.3%. Buffet et al likely feel that this a better risk/return bet than they can get by buying more stock. So they think stock valuations are too high and for whatever reason (FOMO on the part of everyone else?) potential negative news (tariffs, some possibility of recession, etc.) is not being priced in.

Just not sure what to do with that information except to maybe sell some stock in tax-deferred or Roth accounts.

Also of note is that Berkshire, with total assets of just over a trillion dollars, still has about $700B invested in various stocks. Which means that they have twice the stock exposure that I have, speaking only in terms of percentages, of course!!

dualstow wrote: ↑Sat Feb 15, 2025 6:09 pm

Smith1776 wrote: ↑Sat Feb 15, 2025 10:16 am Does anyone here still hold some Berkshire stock? If so, how do you feel about the growing cash hoard that isn't being deployed?

Yes, and I plan to hold it even after Warren B passes away.
Fine with the cash hoard. Glad I don’t have to pay tax on the interest.

Who do you see making investment decisions in his absence? What is then so special about it without him there?

He's got some smart people that he's mentored to manage their portfolio.