Gyroscopic Investing

NAFTA, GATT, possibly the TPP?? 

moda0306 wrote: tech,

Gotcha.  Obviously I tend to agree.

What do you think are the usual fundamentals of collapse, then?

Overspending, including but not limited to imperial overreach and welfare expenditures.

Libertarian666 wrote:

moda0306 wrote: tech,

Gotcha.  Obviously I tend to agree.

What do you think are the usual fundamentals of collapse, then?

Overspending, including but not limited to imperial overreach and welfare expenditures.

What do you consider "welfare expenditures?"  Specifically, does general infrastructure count as "welfare?"

It seems to me, until some of the left-wing revolutions of the past couple centuries, we didn't really have "welfare expenditures."  We just had military and perhaps general state overhead and certain infrastructure.  Obviously we could be getting into semantics here... but isn't war a far, far bigger contributor?

And with regards to non-war causes, it seems to me that just general corruption, disorganization, and public dis-trust and unrest are larger causes than "too expansive a welfare state."  Sure there are a few exceptions, but to me if we're talking main causes, "too much unemployment insurance" seems like one rarely involved.

moda0306 wrote:

Libertarian666 wrote:

moda0306 wrote: tech,

Gotcha.  Obviously I tend to agree.

What do you think are the usual fundamentals of collapse, then?

Overspending, including but not limited to imperial overreach and welfare expenditures.

What do you consider "welfare expenditures?"  Specifically, does general infrastructure count as "welfare?"

It seems to me, until some of the left-wing revolutions of the past couple centuries, we didn't really have "welfare expenditures."  We just had military and perhaps general state overhead and certain infrastructure.  Obviously we could be getting into semantics here... but isn't war a far, far bigger contributor?

And with regards to non-war causes, it seems to me that just general corruption, disorganization, and public dis-trust and unrest are larger causes than "too expansive a welfare state."  Sure there are a few exceptions, but to me if we're talking main causes, "too much unemployment insurance" seems like one rarely involved.

(From http://www.usgovernmentspending.com/, but I'd be happy to see another source if you have one)

Out of total spending of $6.2 trillion (!):

Pensions $1.2 trillion
Health Care $1.4 trillion
Education $0.9 trillion
Defense $0.8 trillion
Welfare $0.5 trillion

Pensions, health care, education, and welfare (duh) all count as welfare. It sure looks like that's the big issue!

tech,

That's modern America (which is still standing... arguably relatively strong (though I understand you disagree))... not ancient Rome.  I'm trying to look at the "fall of nations" from a historical context.  Do you have Rome's budget right before it fell?

I think part of the problem is that the "welfare state" in terms of social insurances (disability, unemployment, retirement pension, health, etc) is a relatively new invention.  I think it remains to be seen what the long-term affects of it are.  Perhaps, and unfortunately brewing already... overpopulation.

Hardly. Birth rates have fallen sharply, even more in the high-welfare countries, many of which are experiencing native population decline. The opposite effect is seen; a highly comfortable society appears to lead to population shrinkage because people can envision doing more with their own lives besides raising children, and women have more social and economic options available to them.

PS,

Fair point... It's been a while since I've dove into population/child-rearing economics.

Though I still think over-population is a problem.  Not because we're accelerating population growth, but getting to a zone where we are using too much of the earth's natural productive capacity... but that's a different topic than the welfare state causing overpopulation.

moda0306 wrote: Though I still think over-population is a problem.  Not because we're accelerating population growth, but getting to a zone where we are using too much of the earth's natural productive capacity... but that's a different topic than the welfare state causing overpopulation.

The best cure for overpopulation is improving living standards which is why population growth flatlines in 2050.  Thank capitalism for that.

Basically, none of the conservative ideology fear mongering about welfare has come true.  I'm not sure why they're so bothered about paying a relative pittance to Welfare Queens aka Disability Recipients in Appalachian and other Rust Belt shitholes.  Maybe they're all just a bunch of miserly Scrooges?  Oh wait, they must really fear an epidemic of Red Menace Communism flourishing where everyone gets paid, but no one does any work.   It's poverty/scarcity consciousness attached to the anarchronistic gold standard (fixed exchange rates).

Seriously, fear mongering about socialism has been going on since the turn of the 20th Century and none of it has come to pass.  It's so tired and old.  Can we please all grow up and move onto post-modern economics which is the future?

MachineGhost wrote: Seriously, fear mongering about socialism has been going on since the turn of the 20th Century and none of it has come to pass.  It's so tired and old.  Can we please all grow up and move onto post-modern economics which is the future?

Not until the baby boomers all die, I suspect. And once my generation becomes entrenched in our ways, people will have to wait for us to die someday in the same manner.

Is that the same woman as last time???   Praise the Lord!

[quote=http://www.cnbc.com/id/102730154]Los Angeles on Wednesday approved a minimum wage hike to $15 an hour, becoming the latest large city to increase pay amid mounting pressure.

The incremental wage increase in the second-largest U.S. city—which the city council passed in a 12-1 vote—will take place by 2020.

The hourly rate would more than double the current federal rate of $7.25 per hour. Los Angeles follows Seattle and San Francisco, which previously passed measures to hike wages to $15 an hour over several years. [/quote]

Pointedstick wrote: ↑Tue Apr 28, 2015 11:49 am

Xan wrote: I am one of the last to be a fan of government intervention in the marketplace, but I am becoming more and more a fan of the citizen's dividend.  Drop the minimum wage and do the dividend.  It would seem to me that the dividend is far less disruptive to markets, pricing, and businesses than a minimum wage.

I agree. Heck, drop everything and do the dividend. Imagine how glorious that would be. Bye bye unemployment comp, food stamps, social security, medicare, medicaid, SCHIP, obamacare, and others… hello $1,000 tax-free per person per month. So simple. So effective.

This is actually Yang's plan which why he made it to my top four (along with Gabbard, Klobuchar, and Buttigieg).

Vinny

Libertarian666 wrote: ↑Wed May 27, 2015 12:51 pm

moda0306 wrote:

Libertarian666 wrote:

moda0306 wrote: tech,

Gotcha.  Obviously I tend to agree.

What do you think are the usual fundamentals of collapse, then?

Overspending, including but not limited to imperial overreach and welfare expenditures.

What do you consider "welfare expenditures?"  Specifically, does general infrastructure count as "welfare?"

It seems to me, until some of the left-wing revolutions of the past couple centuries, we didn't really have "welfare expenditures."  We just had military and perhaps general state overhead and certain infrastructure.  Obviously we could be getting into semantics here... but isn't war a far, far bigger contributor?

And with regards to non-war causes, it seems to me that just general corruption, disorganization, and public dis-trust and unrest are larger causes than "too expansive a welfare state."  Sure there are a few exceptions, but to me if we're talking main causes, "too much unemployment insurance" seems like one rarely involved.

(From http://www.usgovernmentspending.com/, but I'd be happy to see another source if you have one)

Out of total spending of $6.2 trillion (!):

Pensions $1.2 trillion
Health Care $1.4 trillion
Education $0.9 trillion
Defense $0.8 trillion
Welfare $0.5 trillion

Pensions, health care, education, and welfare (duh) all count as welfare. It sure looks like that's the big issue!

By some measures could not Defense also be counted as (corporate) welfare since a large part of it is to protect our business interests outside of this country?

Vinny

Protecting our citizens and their property isn't welfare, it's literally what "defense" is.

Libertarian666 wrote: ↑Mon Jan 20, 2020 8:57 am

yankees60 wrote: ↑Mon Jan 20, 2020 12:01 am

Libertarian666 wrote: ↑Wed May 27, 2015 12:51 pm

moda0306 wrote:

Libertarian666 wrote:

moda0306 wrote: tech,

Gotcha.  Obviously I tend to agree.

What do you think are the usual fundamentals of collapse, then?

Overspending, including but not limited to imperial overreach and welfare expenditures.

What do you consider "welfare expenditures?"  Specifically, does general infrastructure count as "welfare?"

It seems to me, until some of the left-wing revolutions of the past couple centuries, we didn't really have "welfare expenditures."  We just had military and perhaps general state overhead and certain infrastructure.  Obviously we could be getting into semantics here... but isn't war a far, far bigger contributor?

And with regards to non-war causes, it seems to me that just general corruption, disorganization, and public dis-trust and unrest are larger causes than "too expansive a welfare state."  Sure there are a few exceptions, but to me if we're talking main causes, "too much unemployment insurance" seems like one rarely involved.

(From http://www.usgovernmentspending.com/, but I'd be happy to see another source if you have one)

Out of total spending of $6.2 trillion (!):

Pensions $1.2 trillion
Health Care $1.4 trillion
Education $0.9 trillion
Defense $0.8 trillion
Welfare $0.5 trillion

Pensions, health care, education, and welfare (duh) all count as welfare. It sure looks like that's the big issue!

By some measures could not Defense also be counted as (corporate) welfare since a large part of it is to protect our business interests outside of this country?

Vinny

It's also corporate welfare when the US taxpayer is on the hook for protecting other countries that can easily afford to pay for that service. You might be interested to know that President Trump is the first President to tell those other countries they should pay up, and they have started to do so.

I was well aware of the first clause of your last sentence. Whether the way he is going about it turns out to be effective in the long run is something that still needs to be seen. I have my doubts.

I understand his appeal to many. Many of his instincts are not bad. But his follow through and process is generally questionable.

Vinny

Vinny

I also think a citizen's dividend instead of a minimum wage is a great idea.

Unfortunately, it can only happen if paired with removal of birthright citizenship. Otherwise, look out for planeloads and caravans of pregnant women heading here to have their babies on U.S. soil. The attractions are bad enough as it is...when I was a medical resident, I saw quite a number of babies being born in hospital lobbies or ERs to mothers slipping across the border for that very purpose.

Yes I know the baby has to wait until age 18 to collect, but a) that's a bit of fine print that won't make it into the message sent to south of the border, and b) that's still enough to make the cost of the trip worthwhile as an investment.