Gyroscopic Investing

Kriegsspiel wrote: ↑Thu May 07, 2020 12:38 pm I meant to say I sold some stocks. The way I wrote it might make it seem like I pulled off the Ocho, but I didn't

Oh, even I did that. (VP only)
No, I remember you used the term, sold "chunks of stocks" in a timely manner.

Couldn't agree more.

I don't really fuck with my investments too much. I just kinda nudge them now and then.

If you can't help yourself and you know you're going to be balls deep trading options on margin or whatever the fuck, maybe you just don't keep any cookies in the house (to mix my analogies).

dualstow wrote: ↑Thu May 07, 2020 12:48 pm

Kriegsspiel wrote: ↑Thu May 07, 2020 12:38 pm I meant to say I sold some stocks. The way I wrote it might make it seem like I pulled off the Ocho, but I didn't

Oh, even I did that. (VP only)
No, I remember you used the term, sold "chunks of stocks" in a timely manner.

Mmmmmm, chunks.

Cookie dough.

Dammit.

Buy The Dip... ever hilarious

https://youtu.be/0akBdQa55b4

pmward wrote: ↑Thu May 07, 2020 12:39 pm Investment strategies are like diets.

Master dietologist, how do you see SPX recently ? Isn't the index forming a double top (of type Adam & Eve, according to Thomas Bulkowski ) after 21-22 April ?

PS. Sometimes, I see patterns around me, its highly obsessive have to admit hahaha.

Vil wrote: ↑Wed May 13, 2020 9:14 am

pmward wrote: ↑Thu May 07, 2020 12:39 pm Investment strategies are like diets.

Master dietologist, how do you see SPX recently ? Isn't the index forming a double top (of type Adam & Eve, according to Thomas Bulkowski ) after 21-22 April ?

PS. Sometimes, I see patterns around me, its highly obsessive have to admit hahaha.

Double top's do not exist until they set a lower low. As long as we are above SPY 279.13 we have not set a lower low, and we cannot say it is a double top. The market can still go back above and set that higher high. Two down days does not make a trend. A pattern is also not complete until it breaks up or down. And even if the 279.13 fails, we have the 50 day SMA not too far below at 271.25. It is not uncommon early bull market behavior to go and retest the 50 day SMA prior to going to try to break above the 200 day SMA. Keep an open mind, always look at both sides of the tape. Be careful of looking at the charts with a mind that is biased to one side or the other. For the moment we still have a pattern of higher highs and higher lows in tact. Until that is broken with a lower low the daily trend is still bullish.

pmward wrote: ↑Wed May 13, 2020 9:26 am

Vil wrote: ↑Wed May 13, 2020 9:14 am

pmward wrote: ↑Thu May 07, 2020 12:39 pm Investment strategies are like diets.

Master dietologist, how do you see SPX recently ? Isn't the index forming a double top (of type Adam & Eve, according to Thomas Bulkowski ) after 21-22 April ?

PS. Sometimes, I see patterns around me, its highly obsessive have to admit hahaha.

Double top's do not exist until they set a lower low. As long as we are above SPY 279.13 we have not set a lower low, and we cannot say it is a double top. The market can still go back above and set that higher high. Two down days does not make a trend. A pattern is also not complete until it breaks up or down. And even if the 279.13 fails, we have the 50 day SMA not too far below at 271.25. It is not uncommon early bull market behavior to go and retest the 50 day SMA prior to going to try to break above the 200 day SMA. Keep an open mind, always look at both sides of the tape. Be careful of looking at the charts with a mind that is biased to one side or the other. For the moment we still have a pattern of higher highs and higher lows in tact. Until that is broken with a lower low the daily trend is still bullish.

And the bulls stepped up below that $279.13 just like they should have. They tested it at around 3:15ET and then the bulls launched the price back up over $181 within minutes of the test. So while the SPY price was down today, the bears fumbled and failed to get the ball into the end zone. As long as we are above that $279.13 and the bulls are aggressively defending support like that, it is really hard to make a bearish case.

Funny, I was glued to SPY during that time as well and noticed a couple attempts to breach and hold below that 279 number. Low was 278.96, Close 281.60.

Been watching GDX for a good entry again after 35.20 sale.

buddtholomew wrote: ↑Wed May 13, 2020 8:01 pm Funny, I was glued to SPY during that time as well and noticed a couple attempts to breach and hold below that 279 number. Low was 278.96, Close 281.60.

Been watching GDX for a good entry again after 35.20 sale.

Yep, important support levels like $279.13 rarely give way easily. The best chance the bears have to get and hold below there is to try to gap below it tomorrow morning. We will have to wait and see what happens. If they starts closing some candles below $279.13 then the bears are actually scoring some points and doing some real technical damage, something they have been completely unable to do since March 23.

pmward wrote: ↑Wed May 13, 2020 9:26 am Double top's do not exist until they set a lower low.

Yup, I am bit too quick and a bit of looking ahead (which obviously is my mind drawing dragons in the air), indeed crossing of the confirmation line is pending... Have struggled with some reversion trades in the past due to that (entering too early), promise I will not do that in the future

We had a nice -2.xx% gap in EU, has gained a bit since then but still it smells a negative day. Let's see, though its nice to see again the pros going against the prevailing trend shortly after market opening and betting against ..

pmward wrote: ↑Wed May 13, 2020 8:48 pm Yep, important support levels like $279.13 rarely give way easily.

Its 278.34 now, listening to L'Inverno / Le quattro stagioni (Vivaldi) - that makes the moment even more dramatic ahahah

Vil wrote: ↑Thu May 14, 2020 8:44 am

pmward wrote: ↑Wed May 13, 2020 8:48 pm Yep, important support levels like $279.13 rarely give way easily.

Its 278.34 now, listening to L'Inverno / Le quattro stagioni (Vivaldi) - that makes the moment even more dramatic ahahah

Yep the bears not surprisingly did the gap thing I mentioned last night. They even got an hourly close below $279.13 which really does weaken that level a bit. But so far the bulls have pulled us back above now, and are going back for that next important $181 level. Watch how it handles that $181. Usually the market does one of two things in this scenario. It either goes up close to $181 and then just hangs around doing nothing, this is a bull flag which basically is building energy to break back above $181 which would put the ball back in the bulls court and set the stage for a late afternoon rescue rally. Or it goes up to $181 and quickly turns back around and goes back down, which keeps the ball in the bears hand and sets up yet another test of that now weakened $279.13 level into the close. The hourly chart is very important right here.

Maybe it won't last but my losses are rapidly evaporating.

I have no regrets about not panic-selling.

The ability of the stock market to shake off bad news is truly incredible. Pandemic, 20 percent unemployment, Chinese trade wars, race riots...nothing can seem to keep it down.

doodle wrote: ↑Sun May 31, 2020 11:41 pm The ability of the stock market to shake off bad news is truly incredible. Pandemic, 20 percent unemployment, Chinese trade wars, race riots...nothing can seem to keep it down.

Yes, isn't it amazing what unlimited money printing can do for the stock market?

doodle wrote: ↑Sun May 31, 2020 11:41 pm The ability of the stock market to shake off bad news is truly incredible. Pandemic, 20 percent unemployment, Chinese trade wars, race riots...nothing can seem to keep it down.

Bad news = liquidity. Liquidity = stock market going up. Stock market going up = good news. Therefore, bad news = good news.

Liquidity could flow into any asset. This doesn't make any sense to me. Practically back at pre corona virus levels but world looks completely different.

doodle wrote: ↑Wed Jun 03, 2020 8:23 am Liquidity could flow into any asset. This doesn't make any sense to me. Practically back at pre corona virus levels but world looks completely different.

You need to accept the fact that the economy and fundamentals do not move the stock market. I've been saying this on this board for 2 years now (and been proven right time and again) and still nobody gets it. If the economy and fundamentals moved markets, the market would be way down right now. The day you can accept this fact is the day you finally will be free to start to understand what really does move markets, and that will be the day that you will start being on the right side of the trades instead of always on the wrong side.

If it's emotion that moves markets then I guess the concept of trading is almost entirely a crapshoot...unless there is some other mysterious predictable force at work.

I guess the better question is...where is all the optimism coming from? I see no bright light on the horizon.

doodle wrote: ↑Wed Jun 03, 2020 12:06 pm If it's emotion that moves markets then I guess the concept of trading is almost entirely a crapshoot...unless there is some other mysterious predictable force at work

Emotions show up on a chart. It's not a crapshoot. If people are greedy today, odds are they are going to be greedy tomorrow. If people are fearful today, odds are they will be fearful tomorrow. Nobody can every make a 100% bet, but you can find bets that are higher probability than others, and if you manage your risk properly and don't do anything dumb you can profit greatly on the whole.

Or you can just hold something like a PP and stop speculating on what could/should happen, and just let the market do whatever it's going to do.

Gold is well below 1700. 30-year Treasury bond prices are falling.
Stocks up big time.

All is well. Nothing happened.

the same as flight to safety drives up gold and treasuries , risk on again crushes them .

Stocks down 6%, Thu Jun 11 3:00PM EST
added:
down 7% 3:30 EST

It is indeed ugly out there. S&P testing 3000 currently, which is an extremely important level to hold for many reasons. Definitely feels more like March today than like May.