Gyroscopic Investing

I Shrugged wrote: ↑Thu Apr 09, 2020 10:58 pm It's time to cut people loose, and those who wear masks, social distance, wash their hands and such will do fine.
The unhealthy should be more cautious still. Stay home as much as possible, etc.
If we the public haven't figured it out by now, then waiting longer is not going to make us any smarter. At some point we have to open back up, and I don't see any further gains from waiting.

Except if someone you know or loves dies.

And, imagine teen age kids going to school, getting it, showing no effects from it but passing it to their grandparents who are otherwise healthy but then end up dead?

Vinny

Holy shit. This thing just gets more and more real.

Smith1776 wrote: ↑Fri Apr 10, 2020 1:55 am Holy shit. This thing just gets more and more real.

More and more farcical.

That Paris photo just reminds me that we’re missing a whole season of beautiful people in stretch pants.

Corona preppers: she knows where the beans are buried
https://www.reddit.com/r/tifu/comments/ ... d_show_me/

The Doctor, epidemiologist on C-Span NOW is highly informative!

Vinny

dualstow wrote: ↑Fri Apr 10, 2020 7:01 am That Paris photo just reminds me that we’re missing a whole season of beautiful people in stretch pants.

That was the first thing everyone noticed in the picture of Chuck Schumer, right?

Smith1776 wrote: ↑Thu Apr 09, 2020 8:24 pm The stock market's current valuation look's extremely rosy relative to what seems to be the consensus outlook for the economy.

cnbc.png

I wonder how much of this doomporn is just financial people trying to convince other people to sell their shares to them cheaply.

By the way, who else hopes that some great new fashion trends come out of our apocalypse? Muslim-style face converings aside, I've been noticing a significant amount of guys will, if given the chance, pair a jacket and tie with shorts. This is mainstream in Bermuda, seeing it on the continent would be a good thing.

Kriegsspiel wrote: ↑Mon Apr 06, 2020 4:23 pm

“We’ve got plenty of animal protein in the U.S., more than we can consume,” said Mr. Steiner.

CHALLENGE ACCEPTED MOTHERFUCKER

Dr. Juergen Rissland, a lead doctor at the Institute for Virology at Saarland University Hospital in Germany, went on the record to say: drinking whiskey can protect against COVID-19. . . While appearing on "The Morning Show," Dr. Rissland was asked about whether or not drinking alcohol could kill any viruses a person may have ingested. "Yes, of course, that's true," Dr. Rissland responded. "And the higher the percentage of alcohol, the better it is. For example, if you are a whisky lover, then that certainly isn't a bad idea," he continued, while offering this bit of sage advice to pace yourself: "But of course you need to bear in mind that you can't do that every 15 minutes, that is something else to consider."

DO NOT DOUBT MY STRENGTH

Hey guys, check out Ray Dalio's latest virtual interview. It's a pretty meaty conversation. The gist of it? "We're headed into a Great Depression" he says.

https://youtu.be/yrxYhv2O3wU

MangoMan wrote: ↑Fri Apr 10, 2020 9:30 am

Kriegsspiel wrote: ↑Fri Apr 10, 2020 8:23 am By the way, who else hopes that some great new fashion trends come out of our apocalypse? Muslim-style face converings aside, I've been noticing a significant amount of guys will, if given the chance, pair a jacket and tie with shorts. This is mainstream in Bermuda, seeing it on the continent would be a good thing.

Okay, why would you bother wearing shorts if your'e going to wear knee socks? Doesn't that defeat the purpose?

I thought it was a fake picture! Terrible look! You'd not catch me in ANY of the clothes that they are each wearing!

Vinny

MangoMan wrote: ↑Fri Apr 10, 2020 9:30 am Okay, why would you bother wearing shorts if you're going to wear knee socks? Doesn't that defeat the purpose?

It's an idiosyncrasy, sure, but still cooler than wearing pants. TBH it probably helps soak up some of the sweat running down your legs.

Kriegsspiel wrote: ↑Fri Apr 10, 2020 9:47 am Historical Photos Of The 1918 Spanish Flu That Show What A Global Pandemic Looked Like In The 1910s

By the way, the "Spanish" Flu did NOT originate in Spain.

It started during WW I. Spain was not in WW I. Their press covered the flu on the front pages of their newspapers. The western powers who were involved in WW I collectively agreed to relegate coverage of the flu OFF the front pages so as to not burden their populaces with yet more depressing news.

The "Spanish" flu may have started in France, China, Kansas, New York City but definitely NOT Spain.

And, now today we are hearing that this virus started incubating and spreading in New York City in January and the New York City flu origins were from Europe.

Vinny

It’s deBlasio’s fault. Dadgumed libs crap up most everything. Impeach Woodrow Wilson, NOW, in effigy.

Excuse me, I was practicing my learning from NYT, MSNBC, CNN, and Fox.

I shall now return to focusing on the blessings bestowed on Good Friday to us sinners.

yankees60 wrote: ↑Fri Apr 10, 2020 10:00 am And, now today we are hearing that this virus started incubating and spreading in New York City in January and the New York City flu origins were from Europe.

You're misinterpreting...they're saying, based on analysis of viral mutations, that the virus arrived in NYC from Europe. Presumably, it arrived in Europe from China. It did not go straight from China to NYC. This is because we had a ban on travel from China at the time, while Europe didn't.

BTW I am SO frustrated that sometimes my posts just disappear into a black hole instead of showing up. Hope this one shows up. I said something earlier this am about how it might actually be helpful to allow lifting of lockdowns for low risk populations in low density areas with minimal viral activity, while keeping the lid on in cities like NYC who are still seeing thousands of new cases daily.

WiseOne wrote: ↑Fri Apr 10, 2020 10:26 am
BTW I am SO frustrated that sometimes my posts just disappear into a black hole instead of showing up. Hope this one shows up.

I blame PHP.

I don't know how. I just know it's PHP's fault somehow.

WiseOne wrote: ↑Fri Apr 10, 2020 10:26 am

yankees60 wrote: ↑Fri Apr 10, 2020 10:00 am And, now today we are hearing that this virus started incubating and spreading in New York City in January and the New York City flu origins were from Europe.

You're misinterpreting...they're saying, based on analysis of viral mutations, that the virus arrived in NYC from Europe. Presumably, it arrived in Europe from China. It did not go straight from China to NYC. This is because we had a ban on travel from China at the time, while Europe didn't.

BTW I am SO frustrated that sometimes my posts just disappear into a black hole instead of showing up. Hope this one shows up. I said something earlier this am about how it might actually be helpful to allow lifting of lockdowns for low risk populations in low density areas with minimal viral activity, while keeping the lid on in cities like NYC who are still seeing thousands of new cases daily.

I agree there are wide open spaces that people live in that are on some sort of Lock down.
Some of the experts are talking to lift the Quarantine when there is about 60 cases a day in the country.(approx June if you trust their Models)
Will people wait that long in this country?
This 2 week lock down has turned in a month that will turn into????

WiseOne wrote: ↑Fri Apr 10, 2020 10:26 am

yankees60 wrote: ↑Fri Apr 10, 2020 10:00 am And, now today we are hearing that this virus started incubating and spreading in New York City in January and the New York City flu origins were from Europe.

You're misinterpreting...they're saying, based on analysis of viral mutations, that the virus arrived in NYC from Europe. Presumably, it arrived in Europe from China. It did not go straight from China to NYC. This is because we had a ban on travel from China at the time, while Europe didn't.

Exactly.

Paraphrasing a funny tweet from memory: "The receipt proves the milk in the fridge came from the store, not from a farm. Stop saying cows had anything to do with it."

WiseOne wrote: ↑Fri Apr 10, 2020 10:26 am

yankees60 wrote: ↑Fri Apr 10, 2020 10:00 am And, now today we are hearing that this virus started incubating and spreading in New York City in January and the New York City flu origins were from Europe.

You're misinterpreting...they're saying, based on analysis of viral mutations, that the virus arrived in NYC from Europe. Presumably, it arrived in Europe from China. It did not go straight from China to NYC. This is because we had a ban on travel from China at the time, while Europe didn't.

BTW I am SO frustrated that sometimes my posts just disappear into a black hole instead of showing up. Hope this one shows up. I said something earlier this am about how it might actually be helpful to allow lifting of lockdowns for low risk populations in low density areas with minimal viral activity, while keeping the lid on in cities like NYC who are still seeing thousands of new cases daily.

I was not misinterpreting. I was trying to say the same thing that you successfully did. I am not certain of your "because", though. Has it been proven that it was not ALREADY in New York City PRIOR to the ban on travel from China? Also, correct me if I am wrong but that ban on travel from China did NOT include Americans coming back into this country from China?

Finally, I have also had some disappearing posts. I had always just been assuming it was something I'd not correctly done on my end.

Vinny

yankees60 wrote: ↑Fri Apr 10, 2020 7:39 am The Doctor, epidemiologist on C-Span NOW is highly informative!

Vinny

She is again on C-Span now!

She is a professor with University of Chicago Medicine.

VInny

yankees60 wrote: ↑Fri Apr 10, 2020 12:00 am

I Shrugged wrote: ↑Thu Apr 09, 2020 10:58 pm It's time to cut people loose, and those who wear masks, social distance, wash their hands and such will do fine.
The unhealthy should be more cautious still. Stay home as much as possible, etc.
If we the public haven't figured it out by now, then waiting longer is not going to make us any smarter. At some point we have to open back up, and I don't see any further gains from waiting.

Except if someone you know or loves dies.

And, imagine teen age kids going to school, getting it, showing no effects from it but passing it to their grandparents who are otherwise healthy but then end up dead?

It’s up to that family to take the appropriate precautions. I mean, what is the alternative?

I don’t know if I specifically asked this before, but since the entire world deaths have passed 100k I figured I’d ask.

I have these questions, from a very much slanting toward what the hell are we doing?

—world loses 150k people a day normally. If we are conservative and say this has been going on for 60 days, is that adding 1666 deaths a day to that total?
—if adding, that is only a 1% increase. Have we gone overboard?
—if some portion would have likely died of some other comorbidity, and were already in the hospital, should they be counted as CV deaths?
—all estimates are so far wildly too high, but people are terrified of walking those down. Why?
—there likely will be another bump up when we start going back to normal, and people are terrified of that. Are you?
—There won’t be a real vaccine, will there? More instead like a flu shot which will be some percent effective? These types of viruses mutate too much for a vaccine?

Cortopassi wrote: ↑Fri Apr 10, 2020 10:38 pm I have these questions, from a very much slanting toward what the hell are we doing?

—world loses 150k people a day normally. If we are conservative and say this has been going on for 60 days, is that adding 1666 deaths a day to that total?
—if adding, that is only a 1% increase. Have we gone overboard?
—if some portion would have likely died of some other comorbidity, and were already in the hospital, should they be counted as CV deaths?
—all estimates are so far wildly too high, but people are terrified of walking those down. Why?
—there likely will be another bump up when we start going back to normal, and people are terrified of that. Are you?
—There won’t be a real vaccine, will there? More instead like a flu shot which will be some percent effective? These types of viruses mutate too much for a vaccine?

I doubt I am the most qualified to answer, but...

The response has varied from country to country so let's just take the US. According to the CDC website, we lose just under 8,000 people each day due to all causes. Even with social distancing, about 2,000 people have been dying each day over the last few days. The measures we have taken have almost certainly had a positive effect in terms of reducing the number of daily CV deaths. If we ignore comorbidity, that is an increase of about 25% per day which is a lot, especially from a single cause.

I am concerned about what will happen when we all start having a lot more human contact but I doubt that we are going completely back to normal, at least over the next few months. I think densities will continue to be limited in public places for a long time. I would not be surprise, for example, if schools start back with an every second day schedule so that they only have half as many kids each day. Maybe NBA games will have 2,000 fans at first instead of 20,000. But I think we are in for a lot of this stuff until we strike the right balance. In addition to having fewer contacts, I think the contacts we do have will be quite different for a while. People are unlikely to shake hands much or hug one another. We will likely be wearing a lot of face masks. People who have a persistent cough will be shunned or strongly urged to stay home. Nursing home visits will be extremely limited, and so on. So I think the return to normal will be in fits and starts.

I am concerned for myself when I start having more human contact because I am 61 and I have asthma. But I am not so scared that I would just stay at home. I keep thinking about how Londoners who didn't get killed or injured by German bombs started to feel more secure, not less so.... like they were invincible. I think a lot of people will start to have that feeling about CV for whatever reason.

Anyway, those are just a few thoughts.