Just read this today in my today's local newspaper:
https://www.recorder.com/my-turn-witty- ... s-33704790
Seeking more reliable information about pandemic
Tip of a Pen Mike Watson Images
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By RICHARD WITTY
Published: 4/9/2020 8:44:50 AM
Modified: 4/9/2020 8:44:38 AM
Good decisions start with good information, good data. Personal decisions. Business decisions. Governmental decisions.
One of the most upsetting aspects of the coronavirus pandemic is how unreliable the information about the pandemic has been. That includes national, state and local; from case management databases, from government, from press.
At the source, the data that is available is reported tested cases. But a minority of those with symptoms are requested to get tested. A quarter of negative results are false negatives. And, in most cases, symptoms don’t appear for a week.
Public health analysts apply a rule of thumb that the actual number of infected are at least five times the number reported.
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Further, active cases is the relevant number to asses, not reported cases. Active cases are the total reported cases minus deaths and minus recoveries (which are unavailable publicly).
We don’t know.
Since Friday, April 3, the reported number of cases went from 25 in the morning, to 46 on Friday afternoon, to 61 Tuesday morning. That is a 25% daily growth rate.
If 25% is not the actual growth rate, what is? And what can the town government do with that information?
One in 383 Greenfield residents are currently reported to be infected at some stage (18,000/47 or 61 total reported cases less 14 deaths). One in 77 Greenfield residents are actually likely to be infected (18,000/235).
The average daily growth rate for reported cases in Massachusetts is 10.7% as of Tuesday. That is doubling every 6.8 days. If Greenfield was experiencing that rate, then in two weeks, there will be 127 reported cases, 189 in three weeks, 280 in four, including projected recoveries. If the actual number of infections is five times what is reported, then in four weeks 1/13th of the population of Greenfield would be infected.
Is the growth rate in Greenfield more or less than the state average?
What levels of restriction reduce the growth rate? That’s unknown precisely. We can’t confidently predict, so we must respond to what occurs, with delayed information, driving via the rear-view mirror. It is what it is.
There are six levels of possible restriction:
No limits.
Shopping with no limits per store, but sufficient to voluntarily maintain a 6-foot distance.
Shopping with mandatory limits to maximum per store at any one time based on square footage (1 per 200 square feet including employees).
No stores open, only delivery or curbside pickup.
No leaving the house.
No leaving one’s room.
Neither the federal nor state governments have provided sufficient guidance as to best practices of criteria for the levels of restriction.
South Korea is a model of a country successfully reducing infections to the point that they can return to normal activity. They have 4.000 active cases of 51 million residents. That is 1 for every 13.000 residents.
In Greenfield, we might use than 1 in 5.000 residents as a target to have no limitations. (That would be < 4 reported active cases in Greenfield.)
Less than 1 in 1,800 to allow option 2 (< 10 active cases).
Less than 1 in 600 to allow option 3 (< 30 active cases).
Less than 1 in 200 to allow option 4 (< 90 active cases).
Otherwise option 5.
Currently, Greenfield essential retailers operate on the basis of assumption 2, a voluntary 6-foot distance between customers in the store.
By my math, at 47 active cases, Greenfield should be at option 4, no stores open to the public, and served only by delivery or curbside pickup. If that is politically impossible, then the city should adopt the mandatory limit of one person per 200 square feet as a precaution, even if it is a compromise towards realizing reduction in active cases.
These restrictions, including some enforcement mechanism, should be enacted immediately.
When the number reported of active non-hospitalized cases is less than four cases (theoretically possible in seven weeks), then Greenfield commercial life could return to prior normal.
The metaphor for contagion is a snowball rolling downhill, constantly increasing its speed, until the slope changes, flattens.
Richard Witty is a longtime Greenfield resident, retired CPA and not-for-profit finance executive.
