Gyroscopic Investing

Posted: **Mon Feb 17, 2025 11:41 pm**

glennds wrote: ↑Sun Feb 16, 2025 10:16 am
yankees60 wrote: ↑Wed Feb 12, 2025 8:44 pm
dualstow wrote: ↑Wed Feb 12, 2025 6:57 pm I thought I saw 60,000 at wiki.
Your figure doesn’t include combatants. Shouldn’t it?
Of course you are correct.

Ukraine has lost 45,100 soldiers on the battlefield since the start of Russia's full-scale invasion in February 2022, President Volodymyr Zelensky said in an interview with U.K. journalist Piers Morgan published Feb. 4.
For comparison, the US estimate of Russian (military and militia) losses is 700,000. The UK estimates it at 790,000. Putin is doing a good job of killing more of his own citizens than Ukrainians.
I miss Kbg's posts. He apparently had a military background. One time he commented that history shows us that it is remarkably hard for even the most powerful country to invade, conquer and dispossess another country that does not want to be subsumed. Examples: Vietnam and Afghanistan.
BTW, the US estimate of Ukrainian combatant losses is closer to 57,000.
I don't know about you, but I would not take a bet that the Ukrainian people have any less grit than the Vietnamese or the Afghans.

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Casualtie ... ainian_War

Putin emptied out Russian prisons and sacrificed mercenaries. When they ran low other mercs were pulled in from other countries. The more recent now is N Koreans. Other than Russian 'undesirables' I would suggest the actual number of Russian killed/wounded are relatively light.

Posted: **Tue Feb 18, 2025 7:17 am**

seajay wrote: ↑Mon Feb 17, 2025 11:41 pm
glennds wrote: ↑Sun Feb 16, 2025 10:16 am
yankees60 wrote: ↑Wed Feb 12, 2025 8:44 pm
dualstow wrote: ↑Wed Feb 12, 2025 6:57 pm I thought I saw 60,000 at wiki.
Your figure doesn’t include combatants. Shouldn’t it?
Of course you are correct.

Ukraine has lost 45,100 soldiers on the battlefield since the start of Russia's full-scale invasion in February 2022, President Volodymyr Zelensky said in an interview with U.K. journalist Piers Morgan published Feb. 4.
For comparison, the US estimate of Russian (military and militia) losses is 700,000. The UK estimates it at 790,000. Putin is doing a good job of killing more of his own citizens than Ukrainians.
I miss Kbg's posts. He apparently had a military background. One time he commented that history shows us that it is remarkably hard for even the most powerful country to invade, conquer and dispossess another country that does not want to be subsumed. Examples: Vietnam and Afghanistan.
BTW, the US estimate of Ukrainian combatant losses is closer to 57,000.
I don't know about you, but I would not take a bet that the Ukrainian people have any less grit than the Vietnamese or the Afghans.

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Casualtie ... ainian_War
Putin emptied out Russian prisons and sacrificed mercenaries. When they ran low other mercs were pulled in from other countries. The more recent now is N Koreans. Other than Russian 'undesirables' I would suggest the actual number of Russian killed/wounded are relatively light.

What was North Korea's interest / rationale for supplying their own people?

Posted: **Tue Feb 18, 2025 8:43 am**

Probably weapons technology.
Side note: I remember Kim Jong-il had a penchant for Russian women (well, paid-for). He used to keep them on the bulletproof train he was riding around in.

Posted: **Tue Feb 18, 2025 9:03 am**

dualstow wrote: ↑Tue Feb 18, 2025 8:43 am Probably weapons technology.
Side note: I remember Kim Jong-il had a penchant for Russian women (well, paid-for). He used to keep them on the bulletproof train he was riding around in.

That, of course, Russia trusting North Korea to a certain extent, correct? Those weapons someday could be turned back around on Russia? Not likely but not impossible.

Posted: **Tue Feb 18, 2025 9:21 am**

yankees60 wrote: ↑Tue Feb 18, 2025 9:03 am
dualstow wrote: ↑Tue Feb 18, 2025 8:43 am Probably weapons technology.
Side note: I remember Kim Jong-il had a penchant for Russian women (well, paid-for). He used to keep them on the bulletproof train he was riding around in.
That, of course, Russia trusting North Korea to a certain extent, correct? Those weapons someday could be turned back around on Russia? Not likely but not impossible.

Gold (N Korea exports a similar amount to what it receives via stealing Bitcoins), tech (Russia satellites/missile technology), integration/support (common defense policies) and food/resources.

Posted: **Tue Feb 18, 2025 9:26 am**

seajay wrote: ↑Tue Feb 18, 2025 9:21 am
yankees60 wrote: ↑Tue Feb 18, 2025 9:03 am
dualstow wrote: ↑Tue Feb 18, 2025 8:43 am Probably weapons technology.
Side note: I remember Kim Jong-il had a penchant for Russian women (well, paid-for). He used to keep them on the bulletproof train he was riding around in.
That, of course, Russia trusting North Korea to a certain extent, correct? Those weapons someday could be turned back around on Russia? Not likely but not impossible.
Gold (N Korea exports a similar amount to what it receives via stealing Bitcoins), tech (Russia satellites/missile technology), integration/support (common defense policies) and food/resources.

I assume, though, that the relationship between the two companies would not match that between the United States and Canada (prior to January 2025)? In terms of trust and other related issues?

Posted: **Tue Feb 18, 2025 1:02 pm**

ppnewbie wrote: ↑Tue Feb 11, 2025 11:22 am Sorry I can’t help but be sarcastic here.

We (the American public) are going to feel great about saving Ukraine when the war ends. And the US and possibly Russia are going to go in and pillage Ukraine’s natural resources as the price for peace and Ukraine will not be in NATO and they are going to lose the regions that Putin took.

We Stand with Ukraine!

Russia and the US are negotiating WITHOUT Ukraine or Europe. Europe is clutching its pearls for dear life while being exposed as dependent and weak. “Just stand over there in your fancy suits while the adults work things out”. Ukraine is being exposed as being bit player between two titans.

I laughed out loud when Europe proposed sending “peace keeping” forces to Ukraine.

Zelensky looked into the vacant eyes of Biden and dull eyes of Boris Johnson and made a terrible mistake.

Posted: **Wed Feb 19, 2025 3:14 am**

ppnewbie wrote: ↑Tue Feb 11, 2025 11:22 am and Ukraine will not be in NATO

Why would it want to? Many trusted the US, adopted the dollar as a primary trade settlement currency in place of gold and accepted it exporting inflation to help fund a massive military might for collective defense - but now see the light (trust and support was misplaced). As such what remains of Ukraine will likely join the EU and its common defense. Like others the EU will continue to discount/drop both the Dollar and NATO, reciprocate US sanctions (US isolation) and negotiate with Russia/China in regard to integration/interfacing into TARA and trade expansion.

Investment wise the Dow/Gold ratio is at a relative high, up at 17 levels, perhaps destined for another decline down to former 2 levels as per 1932/1980 years. Part of which may very well entail many current major stocks opting to re-domicile/list to within the TARA alternatives.

Will be interesting to see what Musk's audit of US gold reveals. 'Safer' physical in-hand gold may see additional punitive US taxation policies on top of the already relatively high collectibles tax. Perhaps worthwhile considering that past metals money also include silver and copper - that can serve as-well when anti-gold policies are in place (confiscation or prohibitive taxation policies). The recent 90 gold/silver ratio is also relatively high, silver is seemingly better 'value', could see its price track gold higher but fall less if/should the price of gold drop. The silver/copper ratio is also somewhat high, copper might be better-value than silver. IIRC around 70% of silver production is a bi product from other metals such as copper production, where the price tends to rise along with economic expansion. China stocks have been flat (volatile) over the last decade or so, as the US declines so China might rise and see increased demand for the likes of copper. Noteworthy is that gold/copper is somewhat a proxy for silver i.e. a combo of both monetary and utility elements.

https://www.portfoliovisualizer.com/bac ... q2jXrINubf

Posted: **Wed Feb 19, 2025 4:39 pm**

https://palexander.substack.com/p/f-tru ... dium=email

“F--- Trump and his sh---y supposed peace deal,” said Ryan O’Leary, an Iraq war veteran who leads Chosen Company, one of the largest foreign volunteer units in Ukraine. “Any peace deal is ultimately
up to Ukrainians alone, who should be included directly in talks. Neither Trump nor his administration should have any say in how the war ends. Only the soldiers and the Ukrainian people should have..
Dr. Paul Alexander
Feb 18, 2025

any say in how the war ends. Only the soldiers and the Ukrainian people should have that say, not some jackass and his jackass cabinet members sitting behind their white picket-fenced houses on a golf course.”

Posted: **Wed Feb 19, 2025 8:24 pm**

seajay wrote: ↑Wed Feb 19, 2025 3:14 am
ppnewbie wrote: ↑Tue Feb 11, 2025 11:22 am and Ukraine will not be in NATO
Why would it want to? Many trusted the US, adopted the dollar as a primary trade settlement currency in place of gold and accepted it exporting inflation to help fund a massive military might for collective defense - but now see the light (trust and support was misplaced). As such what remains of Ukraine will likely join the EU and its common defense. Like others the EU will continue to discount/drop both the Dollar and NATO, reciprocate US sanctions (US isolation) and negotiate with Russia/China in regard to integration/interfacing into TARA and trade expansion.

Investment wise the Dow/Gold ratio is at a relative high, up at 17 levels, perhaps destined for another decline down to former 2 levels as per 1932/1980 years. Part of which may very well entail many current major stocks opting to re-domicile/list to within the TARA alternatives.

Will be interesting to see what Musk's audit of US gold reveals. 'Safer' physical in-hand gold may see additional punitive US taxation policies on top of the already relatively high collectibles tax. Perhaps worthwhile considering that past metals money also include silver and copper - that can serve as-well when anti-gold policies are in place (confiscation or prohibitive taxation policies). The recent 90 gold/silver ratio is also relatively high, silver is seemingly better 'value', could see its price track gold higher but fall less if/should the price of gold drop. The silver/copper ratio is also somewhat high, copper might be better-value than silver. IIRC around 70% of silver production is a bi product from other metals such as copper production, where the price tends to rise along with economic expansion. China stocks have been flat (volatile) over the last decade or so, as the US declines so China might rise and see increased demand for the likes of copper. Noteworthy is that gold/copper is somewhat a proxy for silver i.e. a combo of both monetary and utility elements.

https://www.portfoliovisualizer.com/bac ... q2jXrINubf

Interesting did not think about the dollar reserve implications. But to over simplify Europe is old dumb and becoming poor. They seem wealthy because they don’t have to defend themselves but they will be bankrupt if they do. Also it seems that even when times were good they could not get the Euro to be an effective counter weight to the dollar.

Now their industrial base is getting eaten away by China, they need Russia for energy, and they need us for defense.

So that leaves the BRICS and / or the ASEAN countries Especially China and the US to compete for supremacy.

Don’t know what’s going to happen but I don’t think Europe cannot dedollarize at all. Maybe they kind of make helpful speeches about defense alliances in a courtroom while they are dressed in fancy whigs and frilly clothes (I can’t help myself

But they cannot help defend Ukraine at all.

Anyway my take. And really (to me at least) it’s laughable when random people make tough statements. Just open your eyes and look at reality. Maybe Zelensky can have a nice exile in Switzerland.

Posted: **Wed Feb 19, 2025 8:27 pm**

yankees60 wrote: ↑Wed Feb 19, 2025 4:39 pm https://palexander.substack.com/p/f-tru ... osed-peace

…said Ryan O’Leary, an Iraq war veteran who leads Chosen Company, one of the largest foreign volunteer units in Ukraine. “Any peace deal is ultimately
up to Ukrainians alone, who should be included directly in talks. Neither Trump nor his administration should have any say in how the war ends.

It’s a nice sentiment, but it also sounds like the worldview of an 8-year-old. I mean, on his end, I suppose Zelensky could hold a referendum.
Nobody likes politicians, and yet we have them. Why is that?
(Rhetorical question)
Are you on an email list, Vinny, or was it just a one-off email from a friend?

Posted: **Wed Feb 19, 2025 8:34 pm**

dualstow wrote: ↑Wed Feb 19, 2025 8:27 pm
yankees60 wrote: ↑Wed Feb 19, 2025 4:39 pm https://palexander.substack.com/p/f-tru ... osed-peace

…said Ryan O’Leary, an Iraq war veteran who leads Chosen Company, one of the largest foreign volunteer units in Ukraine. “Any peace deal is ultimately
up to Ukrainians alone, who should be included directly in talks. Neither Trump nor his administration should have any say in how the war ends.

It’s a nice sentiment, but it also sounds like the worldview of an 8-year-old. I mean, on his end, I suppose Zelensky could hold a referendum.
Nobody likes politicians, and yet we have them. Why is that?
(Rhetorical question)
Are you on an email list, Vinny, or was it just a one-off email from a friend?

Just skimmed the article. GPT prompt “write an article about Ukraine that is very dumbly or even dumb-ish”

Posted: **Wed Feb 19, 2025 8:37 pm**

ppnewbie wrote: ↑Wed Feb 19, 2025 8:34 pm
dualstow wrote: ↑Wed Feb 19, 2025 8:27 pm
yankees60 wrote: ↑Wed Feb 19, 2025 4:39 pm https://palexander.substack.com/p/f-tru ... osed-peace

…said Ryan O’Leary, an Iraq war veteran who leads Chosen Company, one of the largest foreign volunteer units in Ukraine. “Any peace deal is ultimately
up to Ukrainians alone, who should be included directly in talks. Neither Trump nor his administration should have any say in how the war ends.

It’s a nice sentiment, but it also sounds like the worldview of an 8-year-old. I mean, on his end, I suppose Zelensky could hold a referendum.
Nobody likes politicians, and yet we have them. Why is that?
(Rhetorical question)
Are you on an email list, Vinny, or was it just a one-off email from a friend?
Just skimmed the article. GPT prompt “write an article about Ukraine that is very dumbly or even dumb-ish”

“Iraq war veteran says “3 + 3 = 99” That’s a little too dumb GPT but not by much.”

Posted: **Thu Feb 20, 2025 9:15 am**

dualstow wrote: ↑Wed Feb 19, 2025 8:27 pm
yankees60 wrote: ↑Wed Feb 19, 2025 4:39 pm https://palexander.substack.com/p/f-tru ... osed-peace

…said Ryan O’Leary, an Iraq war veteran who leads Chosen Company, one of the largest foreign volunteer units in Ukraine. “Any peace deal is ultimately
up to Ukrainians alone, who should be included directly in talks. Neither Trump nor his administration should have any say in how the war ends.

It’s a nice sentiment, but it also sounds like the worldview of an 8-year-old. I mean, on his end, I suppose Zelensky could hold a referendum.
Nobody likes politicians, and yet we have them. Why is that?
(Rhetorical question)
Are you on an email list, Vinny, or was it just a one-off email from a friend?

It's from being subscribed to a particular Substack and receiving emails from it.

Posted: **Thu Feb 20, 2025 9:16 am**

DID Ukraine start the war??!!!

Trying to determine if I should be believing our current president when he says things.

Posted: **Thu Feb 20, 2025 9:26 am**

yankees60 wrote: ↑Thu Feb 20, 2025 9:16 am DID Ukraine start the war??!!!

Trying to determine if I should be believing our current president when he says things.

Here's one take on what started it: https://x.com/seanmdav/status/1892302423387000885

Posted: **Thu Feb 20, 2025 10:38 am**

flyingpylon wrote: ↑Thu Feb 20, 2025 9:26 am
yankees60 wrote: ↑Thu Feb 20, 2025 9:16 am DID Ukraine start the war??!!!

Trying to determine if I should be believing our current president when he says things.
Here's one take on what started it: https://x.com/seanmdav/status/1892302423387000885

It was a good, interesting read.

However, he undermines his argument when he trots out myths such as: "World War II didn’t start with Germany’s invasion of Poland. It started with the terms of the Treaty of Versailles. "

Wars DO start by those firing the first shot.

World War I was not inevitable. It started because the Archduke's driver took a wrong turn which then gave the opportunity to do the assassination. A completely unplanned assassination but one that occurred due to pure happenstance and the opportunity presenting itself.

Kennedy was so concerned with the knowledge of this during the Cuban Missile Crisis that he wanted all his advisors during that time to read Barbara Tuchman's classic book - Guns of August - which detailed how happenstance World War I was.

He realized that wars are NOT the result of inevitable natural progression of events (which is 100% what the above take is about) but, instead, can start for the filmiest reasons.

I'm sure that most of you know about the Russian submarine commander who did not obey an order to fire during the Cuban Missile Crisis, which would have certainly started a conflict / war between the United States and Russia. But we had no such war, another example refuting the inevitabilities of war in the above "take".

Posted: **Thu Feb 20, 2025 11:32 am**

I think the probabilities of a war are what can be more determined. There is a .01 percent chance I will fall off a cliff if I am in the middle of the desert. 5 percent if I am near a cliff. 80 percent if I am standing next to a cliff besides a crazy person.

70 percent chance of getting run over by Russia if Zelensky tried to NATO. After the Fridman interview, I view Zelensky as a brave half wit and the Western leaders at the time as well.

Switzerland is a good place or maybe London. He can be a visiting scholar at the Soros foundation as a consolation prize.

Posted: **Thu Feb 20, 2025 1:48 pm**

ppnewbie wrote: ↑Thu Feb 20, 2025 11:32 am I think the probabilities of a war are what can be more determined. There is a .01 percent chance I will fall off a cliff if I am in the middle of the desert. 5 percent if I am near a cliff. 80 percent if I am standing next to a cliff besides a crazy person.

70 percent chance of getting run over by Russia if Zelensky tried to NATO. After the Fridman interview, I view Zelensky as a brave half wit and the Western leaders at the time as well.

Switzerland is a good place or maybe London. He can be a visiting scholar at the Soros foundation as a consolation prize.

This is what I put on Facebook a few hours ago:

"In this war of words between Trump and Zelenskyy ... which would you rather have with you in the proverbial "foxhole"?"

Posted: **Thu Feb 20, 2025 2:15 pm**

I will always give Zelensky credit for not taking a stash and fleeing the country with his family. He could have easily done that.

People are complex. He’s flawed, but I think he’s doing better than most of us could do.

Posted: **Thu Feb 20, 2025 2:35 pm**

flyingpylon wrote: ↑Thu Feb 20, 2025 9:26 am
yankees60 wrote: ↑Thu Feb 20, 2025 9:16 am DID Ukraine start the war??!!!

Trying to determine if I should be believing our current president when he says things.
Here's one take on what started it: https://x.com/seanmdav/status/1892302423387000885

I agree with his statement that war starts before the first bullet is fired. But that's about all I agree with.
He left out any mention of the Budapest Memoranda of 1994 which, among many other provisions, recognized Ukraine's sovereignty and territorial integrity, along with security assurances in return for giving up its nuclear weapons.
Russia's invasion of Crimea in 2014 violated the agreements, at least in the eyes of Canada, France, Germany, Japan, the UK and the US. I won't even waste your time with Russia's nonsense responses as to why it was not bound to the agreement it signed.

To say Ukraine started the war is like saying a rape victim had it coming, so it's her fault, not the rapist's.

Posted: **Thu Feb 20, 2025 3:05 pm**

dualstow wrote: ↑Thu Feb 20, 2025 2:15 pm I will always give Zelensky credit for not taking a stash and fleeing the country with his family. He could have easily done that.

You mean like when Bashar al-Assad fled Syria? I wondered we he is now. The Internet just told me Moscow. Is that the sanctuary city for dictators?

To me these individuals represent stark contrast in character - former leader of Syria vs. current leader of Ukraine.

Posted: **Thu Feb 20, 2025 3:56 pm**

dualstow wrote: ↑Thu Feb 20, 2025 2:15 pm I will always give Zelensky credit for not taking a stash and fleeing the country with his family. He could have easily done that.

People are complex. He’s flawed, but I think he’s doing better than most of us could do.

Agree with all as stated! He's rare in staying. Look what happened with all those countries in the beginning of World War II. Their leaders were quickly eslewhere.

Posted: **Thu Feb 20, 2025 3:57 pm**

glennds wrote: ↑Thu Feb 20, 2025 2:35 pm
flyingpylon wrote: ↑Thu Feb 20, 2025 9:26 am
yankees60 wrote: ↑Thu Feb 20, 2025 9:16 am DID Ukraine start the war??!!!

Trying to determine if I should be believing our current president when he says things.
Here's one take on what started it: https://x.com/seanmdav/status/1892302423387000885
I agree with his statement that war starts before the first bullet is fired. But that's about all I agree with.
He left out any mention of the Budapest Memoranda of 1994 which, among many other provisions, recognized Ukraine's sovereignty and territorial integrity, along with security assurances in return for giving up its nuclear weapons.
Russia's invasion of Crimea in 2014 violated the agreements, at least in the eyes of Canada, France, Germany, Japan, the UK and the US. I won't even waste your time with Russia's nonsense responses as to why it was not bound to the agreement it signed.

To say Ukraine started the war is like saying a rape victim had it coming, so it's her fault, not the rapist's.

"To say Ukraine started the war is like saying a rape victim had it coming, so it's her fault, not the rapist's."

That is EXACTLY what it is saying!

Posted: **Thu Feb 20, 2025 3:58 pm**

coasting wrote: ↑Thu Feb 20, 2025 3:05 pm
dualstow wrote: ↑Thu Feb 20, 2025 2:15 pm I will always give Zelensky credit for not taking a stash and fleeing the country with his family. He could have easily done that.
You mean like when Bashar al-Assad fled Syria? I wondered we he is now. The Internet just told me Moscow. Is that the sanctuary city for dictators?

To me these individuals represent stark contrast in character - former leader of Syria vs. current leader of Ukraine.

For certain!

He does not seem to revel in all the trappings of being the head of a country.

Gyroscopic Investing

Putin Invades Ukraine II

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