Gyroscopic Investing

Oil, man... I know low gas prices are great, but holy crap.

Cortopassi wrote: ↑Mon Apr 20, 2020 8:27 am Oil, man... I know low gas prices are great, but holy crap.

https://i.imgur.com/G4cA8kT.jpg

There was a comedian, probably Bill Maher, who talked about low gas prices but nowhere to go during the quarantine. He said it's like waking up to his wife saying, "I was finally horny, but you were asleep."

dualstow wrote: ↑Mon Apr 20, 2020 8:32 am There was a comedian, probably Bill Maher, who talked about low gas prices but nowhere to go during the quarantine. He said it's like waking up to his wife saying, "I was finally horny, but you were asleep."

Cortopassi wrote: ↑Mon Apr 20, 2020 8:27 am Oil, man... I know low gas prices are great, but holy crap.

Remember that is current month contract that ends tomorrow. Next months contract is only down like 9% today. Watch later this week when this months contract expires, people will think oil had a strong surge going from $10-$20... even though next months contract has been plummeting as well. Oil is in a super contango right now, the closer the timeframe the cheaper it is. Whatever you do, DO NOT buy USO right now for a hold thinking it will rebound eventually, haha.

Didn't Mr. Cheetoh fix this with his 10 million barrel cut? NEGATIVE price per barrel.

ochotona wrote: ↑Mon Apr 20, 2020 1:45 pm Didn't Mr. Cheetoh fix this with his 10 million barrel cut? NEGATIVE price per barrel.

I've been following that as well. Crazy times.

Well SPY lost both that 2850 and the 50 day moving average today. Are we going to get actual follow through from the bears tomorrow? Or are the bulls going to continue to power back immediately after every down day?

IBM aftermarket may give some hints?

Vil wrote: ↑Mon Apr 20, 2020 4:33 pm IBM aftermarket may give some hints?

International Business Machines Corp (IBM:NYSE)

116.70 -3.71 (-3.08%)

Yup, indeed, that got after their earnings report, but I guess it's slightly exacerbated estimation. EU indexes are ~ -2.2 % so far.

Nice rally today.

rgary22333 wrote: ↑Thu Apr 23, 2020 11:57 pm We have masks if anybody needs N95 equivalent masks right now, including a buy to give program where you can buy masks at cost for medical staff, elderly, the homeless, and other at risk groups! Check it out at http://b2gmasks.com

A real person? Or, not?

These things always look suspicious as a first post here.

Vinny

What in the world is going on with the stock market??

Despite all the horrific news this week, the market keeps going up. Maybe a lot of it was already priced in, but ... still seems bizarre.

I'm thinking about just going ahead and rebalancing as I've waited for a band to be crossed and it hasn't happened yet. Thinking it might be better to take half a loaf than none. If the stock market suddenly decides to wake up and smell the coffee, I can always do it again later.

Stock market really hasn't been going up this week. It's basically been a situation where the bulls and bears are both eating time off the clock waiting for a signal that it's time to buy or sell. I'm watching the levels of 2720 and 2850, as those seem to be the levels the market is stuck between right now. Also, the S&P is really struggling with it's 50 day moving average lately, it's basically been following it slowly down. We had the big selloff in Feb/March, then we had the big rally, and the last week or two we've basically been trendless and in wait and see mode. I would have a bit of patience here to see what the market does. Price cannot stay compressed like this forever with the VIX at its current levels. It's hard to have patience, I of all people know that, waiting for the market to do something. But that really is the best thing to do right now. The tug of war between fear of loss and FOMO is maddening at times like this.

sophie wrote: ↑Fri Apr 24, 2020 11:09 am What in the world is going on with the stock market??
...
Thinking it might be better to take half a loaf than none. If the stock market suddenly decides to wake up and smell the coffee, I can always do it again later.

Why do I feel the urge to have bread & coffee.
Whatever the reason behind it, yesterday’s mild rally felt so normal. The old normal. Hooray for point swings that are under 1,000.

sophie wrote: ↑Fri Apr 24, 2020 11:09 am What in the world is going on with the stock market??

Despite all the horrific news this week, the market keeps going up.

At 9:30 on Monday VTI was at 141, and now it's at 140.14.

sophie wrote: ↑Fri Apr 24, 2020 11:09 am What in the world is going on with the stock market??

Despite all the horrific news this week, the market keeps going up. Maybe a lot of it was already priced in, but ... still seems bizarre

Just my 2¢ but I am mindful that there are huge piles of money being created right now and most of that is being shoveled towards Wall Street. Where is else would it go besides the Stock Market? Bonds are effectively at negative yields when adjusting for inflation. And besides the Fed has decided to monetize the whole damn bond market so who wants to play in that ball field? What we have is a massive wave of newly printed money that needs a place to go. And I think it has found its destination.

Tracking a new index. Bogleheads panic index? May be useful to find a market bottom. Count of number of panicked threads on the first page of this BH forum section. Today I count zero.

ochotona wrote: ↑Sat Apr 25, 2020 2:10 pm Tracking a new index. Bogleheads panic index? May be useful to find a market bottom. Count of number of panicked threads on the first page of this BH forum section. Today I count zero.

Would that indicate a bottom or a top?

Bottom. Sell at the bottom

Stock surge is a bear market rally that will collapse, James Bianco warns
https://www.cnbc.com/2020/04/29/stock-s ... warns.html

FTR... I agree.

like any one knows what is next ....these predictors crack me up .... no one saw the best month since 1974 coming up for stocks one month after one of the worst ,.

mathjak107 wrote: ↑Thu Apr 30, 2020 5:44 am like any one knows what is next ....these predictors crack me up .... no one saw the best month since 1974 coming up for stocks one month after one of the worst ,.

That volatility is really annoying, but my personal perception is nothing compared to the negative feelings that professional fund managers have those days Really, its a kind of magic how they will reach their targets in such a stormy weather..

I was about to write I am gonna move all to PP and have a nice sleep, and voilla - all down day - gold, silver, bonds, stocks ..

Stocks, Gold and LTT’s will finish in the Green today so go and get some sleep