Coronavirus General Discussion

[Maddy]

The crazy thing is that we've been here before. The medical ethicist Henry Caplan made an entire career out of the subject of rationing, convincing us that we needed a centralized top-down medical system to make the lofty life-and-death decisions that the reality of rationing would entail. Unfortunately for Dr. Caplan, who must have envisoned sitting down with the best and brightest at a conference table loaded with crab cocktail to work it all out, the hospital administrators whom he helped vault into positions of power made sure he wasn't even invited to the party.

[Maddy]

To all of you, what would you have had the government do? Seriously, give me something here that wouldn't have caused hysteria and panic regardless.

Tell those with higher risk to stay at home, the rest go about their lives? Hell, 40% of the country is obese! How many have diabetes?

There are so many back seat drivers on this issue, like Denninger, who can spout how shit should have been done from the glory of his house, but how do you do that governing 350 million people?

So, let me hear your plan, how you would have navigated the last 4 weeks and the coming 4 weeks. And not be crucified by one or another part of the country.

So we're to simply trust that our government knows best? Are we to just open our wallets and avoiding bothering our silly little heads with such important questions?

Denninger is making a lot of sense these days, and as far as I can tell, he's doing nothing more than making logical, and obvious, extrapolations.

[Cortopassi]

To all of you, what would you have had the government do? Seriously, give me something here that wouldn't have caused hysteria and panic regardless.

Tell those with higher risk to stay at home, the rest go about their lives? Hell, 40% of the country is obese! How many have diabetes?

There are so many back seat drivers on this issue, like Denninger, who can spout how shit should have been done from the glory of his house, but how do you do that governing 350 million people?

So, let me hear your plan, how you would have navigated the last 4 weeks and the coming 4 weeks. And not be crucified by one or another part of the country.

So we're to simply trust that our government knows best? Are we to just open our wallets and avoiding bothering our silly little heads with such important questions?

Denninger is making a lot of sense these days, and as far as I can tell, he's doing nothing more than making logical, and obvious, extrapolations.

A lot of people outside government make a lot of sense.

My question still is, these ideas work great on a blog on the internet. How do you translate that into the same action at a government level? For Denninger, whether it is CV, or debt, or actually anything, he's got his solutions. And berates everyone who doesn't see his way. Not a good sales strategy.

I think for the most part the government comes around to these ideas, but there is a few days to few weeks lag (which is tough given the circumstances). People and groups need convincing. You usually need to build a consensus. That takes time.

One guy, with possibly the right path based off the data is fine, but I don't see how that can possibly work (as fast or as decisively) across a huge free country. Maybe China. Not here.

[Maddy]

A lot of people outside government make a lot of sense.

My question still is, these ideas work great on a blog on the internet. How do you translate that into the same action at a government level? For Denninger, whether it is CV, or debt, or actually anything, he's got his solutions. And berates everyone who doesn't see his way. Not a good sales strategy.

I think for the most part the government comes around to these ideas, but there is a few days to few weeks lag (which is tough given the circumstances). People and groups need convincing. You usually need to build a consensus. That takes time.

One guy, with possibly the right path based off the data is fine, but I don't see how that can possibly work (as fast or as decisively) across a huge free country. Maybe China. Not here.

I don't hear Denninger calling for a government solution. To the contrary, I understand him to be advocating a return to business as usual--in other words, for the government to stop trying to manage this thing.

[Cortopassi]

A lot of people outside government make a lot of sense.

My question still is, these ideas work great on a blog on the internet. How do you translate that into the same action at a government level? For Denninger, whether it is CV, or debt, or actually anything, he's got his solutions. And berates everyone who doesn't see his way. Not a good sales strategy.

I think for the most part the government comes around to these ideas, but there is a few days to few weeks lag (which is tough given the circumstances). People and groups need convincing. You usually need to build a consensus. That takes time.

One guy, with possibly the right path based off the data is fine, but I don't see how that can possibly work (as fast or as decisively) across a huge free country. Maybe China. Not here.

I don't hear Denninger calling for a government solution. To the contrary, I understand him to be advocating a return to business as usual--in other words, for the government to stop trying to manage this thing.

With the way this all rolled out from China and Italy, and the coverage, how could there be any government in the world that didn’t at least try something?

Curious, is this your position as well? Would you have advocated no travel restrictions, no lock downs, nothing? Or what?

[Tortoise]

With the way this all rolled out from China and Italy, and the coverage, how could there be any government in the world that didn’t at least try something?

Curious, is this your position as well? Would you have advocated no travel restrictions, no lock downs, nothing? Or what?

For governments around the world, this pandemic has largely been a global game of Cover Your Ass, and Simon Says.

If a government is hands-off and the worst-case scenario unfolds, they will be blamed. For sure.

But if a government does what all the other governments are doing, then if the worst-case scenario unfolds, they can't really be singled out. But if things turn out well, they can claim credit by having taken "swift action."

So all governments are covering their asses by playing a global game of Simon Says.

[Libertarian666]

So what if the hospitals are overwhelmed? So what if there aren't enough ventilators for the small, overwhelmingly co-morbid population who needs them, when we know that as many as 98 percent of those who end up on vents are going to die anyway?

Why do the powers-that-be continue to pretend that medical resources are not already being rationed--and in favor of a co-morbid population who is not only unlikely to survive but whose vulnerabilities were quite often the result of lifestyle choices?

The hospitals have already closed their doors (at least in this region) to anything other than respiratory cases, and in New York even cardiac arrest patients are being denied entry unless they can be rescussitated in the field. Even where facilities remain open, how many people are going to be deterred from seeking treatment for non-CoVid-related conditions when virtually every facility has been turned into a hotbed of contagion? Who's howling about all the non-CoVid emergencies (or emergencies in the making) who can't find so much as a doctor's office with the doors open? Is anybody keeping mortality statistics on that? I didn't think so.

I'll bet you dollar to donuts that this C*******F**** will spawn a new generation of medical ethicists who will bloviate on the public dime for the next ten years about how "in hindsight" we should have approached the issue of health care rationing in a more forthright and intentional way.

I think even rich people are horrified at the inability for the health care system to cope with this. No matter how much money you have, can you find a hospital bed in NYC if you have an emergency?

My solution, barring the government getting completely out of the health care business, is that there be a taxpayer-funded crappy system (Medicaid hospitals and doctors) and a completely private system that you subscribe to if you want anything other than the bare minimum of care. That's how some Latin American countries do it, and I suspect it can handle things like this better than the current public/pseudo-private system we have in the US. At least then people who are able and willing to pay for top-notch care will be able to get it rather than being thrown under the bus for the supposed benefit of the "public at large".

[Dieter]

Was it Churchill who said something asking the lines of "America does the right thing. After doing it every other way.".

[dualstow]

Was it Churchill who said something asking the lines of "America does the right thing. After doing it every other way.".

Nope.
https://quoteinvestigator.com/2012/11/1 ... ernatives/

It’s one of those apocryphal but entertaining things, like the American ship vs the Canadian lighthouse. When I tell people it* was made up they say, “Well, it’s the kind of thing Americans would’ve done.”

*the lighthouse joke

[Dieter]

Was it Churchill who said something asking the lines of "America does the right thing. After doing it every other way.".

Nope.
https://quoteinvestigator.com/2012/11/1 ... ernatives/

It’s one of those apocryphal but entertaining things, like the American ship vs the Canadian lighthouse. When I tell people it* was made up they say, “Well, it’s the kind of thing Americans would’ve done.”

*the lighthouse joke

Thanks.

[dualstow]

It’s a good quote nonetheless.
- - -
NYC mayor Bill DeBlasio is calling for a national draft of doctors.
Remember this is the guy who told citizens to go out and enjoy dinner and a movie, way too late.

[Dieter]

A public post on FB by Jerry Portnoy (no idea who he is ; just want to include prior attribution).

And I haven't verified the details (written on the 22nd) ; I don't recall seeing this on here.

"So I thought I would throw up a little history lesson for everyone on both sides of the political divide. I think it’s important that we understand the truth, especially come November when it’s time to vote. Forgive the length. But, hey we all have time on our hands to read, right?

In December 2013, an 18-month-old boy in Guinea was bitten by a bat. Then there were five more fatal cases. When Ebola spread out of the Guinea borders into neighboring Liberia and Sierra Leone in July 2014, President Obama activated the Emergency Operations Center at the Centers for Disease Control in Atlanta. The CDC immediately deployed CDC personnel to West Africa to coordinate a response that included vector tracing, testing, education, logistics and communication.

Altogether, the CDC, under President Obama, trained 24,655 medical workers in West Africa, educating them on how to prevent and control the disease before a single case left Africa or reached the U.S.

Working with the U.N. and the World Health Organization President Obama ordered the re-routing of travelers heading to the U.S. through certain specific airports equipped to handle mass testing.

Back home in America, more than 6,500 people were trained through mock outbreaks and practice scenarios. That was done before a single case hit America.

Three months after President Obama activated this unprecedented response, on September 30, 2014, we got our first case in the U.S.. That man had traveled from West Africa to Dallas, Texas and had somehow slipped through the testing protocol. He was immediately detected and isolated. He died a week later. Two nurses who tended to him contracted Ebola and later recovered. All the protocols had worked. It was contained.

The Ebola epidemic could have easily become a pandemic. But thanks to the actions of our government under Obama, it never did. Those three cases were the ONLY cases of ebola in our country because Obama did what needed to be done three months before the first case.

Ebola is even more contagious than Covid-19. If he Obama not done these things, millions of Americans would have died awful painful deaths like something out of a horror movie (if you’ve ever seen how Ebola kills, it’s horrific).
It’s ironic that BECAUSE President Obama did these things - we forget that he did them, because the disease never reached our shores.

Now the story of Covid 19 and Trump’s response that we know about so far:

Before anyone even knew about the disease (even in China) Trump disbanded the pandemic response team that Obama had put in place. He cut funding to the CDC. And he cut our contribution to the World Health Organization (WHO).

Trump fired Rear Admiral Timothy Ziemer, the person on the National Security Council in charge of stopping the spread of infectious diseases before they reach our country - a position created by the Obama administration.

When the Outbreak started in China, Trump assumed it was China’s problem and sent no research, supplies or help of any kind. We were in a trade war, why should he help them?

In January he received a briefing from our intelligence organizations that the outbreak was much worse than China was admitting and that it would definitely hit our country if something wasn’t done to prevent it. He ignored the report, not trusting our own intelligence.

When the disease spread to Europe, the World Health Organization offered a boatload of tests to the United States. Trump turned them down, saying private companies here would make the tests “better” if we needed them. But he never ordered U.S. companies to make tests and they had no profit motive to do so on their own.

According to scientists at Yale and several public university medical schools, when they asked for permission to start working on our own testing protocol and potential treatments or vaccines, they were denied by Trump’s FDA.

When Trump knew about the first case in the United States he did nothing. It was just one case and the patient was isolated. When doctors and scientists started screaming in the media that this was a mistake, Trump claimed it was a “liberal hoax” conjured up to try to make him “look bad after impeachment failed.”

The next time Trump spoke of Covid-19, we had 64 confirmed cases but Trump went before microphones and told the America public that we only had 15 cases “and pretty soon that number will be close to zero.” All while the disease was spreading. He took no action to get more tests.

What Trump did do is stop flights from China from coming here. This was too late and accomplished nothing according to scientists and doctors. By then the disease was worldwide and was already spreading exponentially in the U.S. by Americans, not Chinese people as Trump would like you to believe.

As of the moment I’m posting this, the morning of March 22, 2020, we have 15,220 CONFIRMED CASES in the U.S. The actual number is undoubtedly much higher. But we don’t know because we don’t have enough tests. Why don’t we have enough tests? Remember back when Trump turned down the tests from the W.H.O. and prevented our own universities from developing them? Remember back when Trump had cut the funding to the CDC?

Every time Mr. Trump goes on camera and blames the previous administration for the mess we are now in, I scream at the reporters from FOX, CNN and MSNBC - “Why aren’t you reporting the actual historical facts?!” How dare Trump try to blame Covid-19 on Obama. He has no one to blame but himself.

I hear Republican pundits try to put the blame on China. And they are correct - after all, the disease started there. And the Chinese government handled it poorly and dishonestly. So it’s fair to blame the government of China for the EXISTENCE of the Covid-19 virus. BUT THAT MISSES THE POINT. Obama didn’t blame Ebola on Guinea. He helped them stop it. Trump let the disease invade the U.S.

And he is still not doing all he could to save lives. He keeps talking about invoking The Defense Production Act, but hasn’t actually done so. He’s making the same mistake twice - waiting until it’s too late to take action.

Invoking that act would require factories with the right equipment and know-how to start producing life saving ventilators for our hospitals, protective masks and other gear for our front line health workers. And the plus is it would actually employ people to do so. UPDATE: he just invoked it, FINALLY, way late.

Them’s the facts. Take them as you will. I’ll go back to trying to find toilet paper on-line.
"

[Dieter]

The link you shared says Trump dissolved the team. Disband seems quote similar (post didn't say fired).

I agree on the WHO claim - not offered.

While Trump tried to cut finding to CDC, Congress didn't let him.

Snopes calls the "Hoax" claim mixed -- https://www.snopes.com/fact-check/trump ... ly-remark/

But the basic claim that he didn't take it seriously early on are true.

And sure wasn't proactive about it.

[dualstow]

It’s been a long time since I read about ebola but I remember being impressed with how it was contained in the U.S.
My memory is foggy-I think in rural parts of Africa it was “contained” in that it wiped out entire villages and was unable to spread further. Is that true?

[yankees60]

This is the part that always angers me, not just in the CV world. Why don't people who smoke or are morbidly obese pay more for health insurance?

In addition to the other replies: smokers at least pay heavy excise taxes.

And, they die off early, helping to preserve the viability of both Social Security and Medicare!

Vinny

[yankees60]

With the way this all rolled out from China and Italy, and the coverage, how could there be any government in the world that didn’t at least try something?

Curious, is this your position as well? Would you have advocated no travel restrictions, no lock downs, nothing? Or what?

For governments around the world, this pandemic has largely been a global game of Cover Your Ass, and Simon Says.

If a government is hands-off and the worst-case scenario unfolds, they will be blamed. For sure.

But if a government does what all the other governments are doing, then if the worst-case scenario unfolds, they can't really be singled out. But if things turn out well, they can claim credit by having taken "swift action."

So all governments are covering their asses by playing a global game of Simon Says.

Just like in the old days if you bought an IBM computer (the safe choice but inferior performer) you'd never get criticized?

But I agree that politicians' greatest fear is doing something which will bring blame on to them. So, they'll always chose the extremely safe route, without regard to $$$$$ or logical analysis.

Look at how much money gets invested now into out schools for security purposes in an attempt to protect kids from ever being harmed or killed by a school shooter. Rational analysis says that its an extremely poor investment because the probabilities of an attack happening is extremely unlikely. But it's an emotional issue.

By the same token we could pass laws that said only Hummers are allowed for travel in our streets and highways. And, you could not drive over 20 mph. How drastically would that reduce the injuries and deaths to children in the United States?

A quick "Bing search" brings me to this:

"For the second consecutive year, the U.S. experienced a small decline in roadway deaths, according to preliminary estimates released today from the National Safety Council. In 2019, an estimated 38,800 people lost their lives to car crashes – a 2% decline from 2018 (39,404 deaths) and a 4% decline from 2017 (40,231 deaths). About 4.4 million people were injured seriously enough to require medical attention in crashes last year – also a 2% decrease over 2018 figures."

That is true carnage every year!

Would there be any at all if everyone was driving a hummer and never driving over 20 mph?

But we'd never do it because of the loss of time and money not to mention the much higher cost for vehicle operation.

Which proves that when emotions are NOT involved people prize money and time over the safety of their children.

Vinny

[Dieter]

The link you shared says Trump dissolved the team. Disband seems quote similar (post didn't say fired).

I agree on the WHO claim - not offered.

While Trump tried to cut finding to CDC, Congress didn't let him.

Snopes calls the "Hoax" claim mixed -- https://www.snopes.com/fact-check/trump ... ly-remark/

But the basic claim that he didn't take it seriously early on are true.

And sure wasn't proactive about it.

1. "dissolved or disbanded":
That link did NOT say that. What it said is this:

"CLAIM: President Donald Trump “fired the entire White House pandemic team.”

VERDICT: Partly false. Former National Security Advisor John Bolton “dissolved” the pandemic office but staff remained to deal with the issue."

Note that Bolton is the one who "dissolved" the team, not Trump. So the claim about Trump is completely false.

2. Hoax:

Please don't cite Snopes. That is a very unreliable source that leans heavily left.

Let's look at what even some other leftist outlets say:

"When looking at the entirety of Trump’s remarks, it appears the “new hoax” comment refers to the alleged Democratic “politicizing” of his response to the coronavirus threat – not the coronavirus itself. The Hill, the Daily Beast and Slate, among other outlets, reported that the “hoax” comment was talking about Democratic criticism.

Slate said, “Trump Slams Democrats Over Coronavirus Criticism: ‘This Is Their New Hoax,'” while the Daily Beast posted, “Trump: Democrats’ Coronavirus Criticism A ‘New Hoax.'”

At no point in the rally does Trump directly call the novel coronavirus outbreak a “hoax” or “conspiracy.” In fact, he refers to the respiratory virus as a “public health threat” and reiterates “we have to take it very, very seriously. That’s what we’re doing. We are preparing for the worst.”

(https://checkyourfact.com/2020/02/29/fa ... ina-rally/)

3. Not proactive: He was roundly criticized for the China travel ban as being "racist". Apparently he was way too proactive for the leftists.

I think I've proven my point to anyone who isn't suffering from TDS.

1) Bolton worked for Trump. His administration disbanded it. At his direction or not, I think close enough.

2) You did see the part where snores article says "Trump did not call the coronavirus itself a hoax.".

But he definitely downplayed the potential seriiysness of COVID-19

As for Snioes being more left than Breitbart (your source) right, haven't researched. But this Snooes article seems on the money to me...

3) Reaction to the travel ban covered in https://www.factcheck.org/2020/03/the-f ... trictions/.

An opinion on how the administration was not proactive (and more comments on how Trump downplayed the seriousness) -- https://www.theguardian.com/us-news/202 ... h-disaster

[dualstow]

Well over 1.1MM cases globally.
They say the first million is the hardest.

[Libertarian666]

Well over 1.1MM cases globally.
They say the first million is the hardest.

With exponential curves, the first n is always the hardest.

[Kriegsspiel]

54.png (221.49 KiB) Viewed 9685 times

[dualstow]

{deBlasé oh! tweets 54.png}

Yep, see here - viewtopic.php?f=9&t=10427&start=1212#p192225

[Kriegsspiel]

A friend just reported that the grocery store and Home Depot were mad houses. Said a trashy looking lady was bumping up against a guy in line and coughing on people. Apocalypse imminent.

[Smith1776]

During our Chipotle expedition yesterday we went by the mall.

Holy crap, like nothing I've seen before. Eerily empty roads, sidewalks, and buildings.

Apocalypse definitely imminent.

[WiseOne]

I might have bought most of the arguments made, but these two claims jumped out at me as being obviously false:

Ebola is even more contagious than Covid-19.

100% not true. Ebola is spread by contact with body fluids, whereas COVID-19 spreads much more easily being a respiratory illness with a prolonged early asymptomatic phase. The problem with Ebola, of course, is the very high mortality compared to COVID.

When the Outbreak started in China, Trump assumed it was China’s problem and sent no research, supplies or help of any kind.

I'm not sure if Trump was the specific sender or not, but U.S. teams did go to China. China booted them out, and categorically refused all outside help. That's one of the sins for which they deserve to be punished on the world stage.

Once you see claims like that, it's not worth discussing the others. So let's move on. There are two major issues that this pandemic exposed, that need to be fixed going forward:

1) Our supply chain for critical products have be within the U.S. It is insane how we are dependent on any other country for supplies that our lives depend on, let alone that country being China. Trump was absolutely right to finger the China trade/manufacturing situation as a major problem, although he didn't take the argument into the national security arena (which he should have).

2) The U.S. needs a medical disaster plan in place BEFORE the disaster hits, not just for pandemics but for any other public health issue that might come along. Clearly here there was none, and I STRONGLY doubt there was any such plan during the Obama administration. We were just as dependent on China for medical supplies during Obama's presidency, and the hospitals were just as short of capacity - because the profit motive drives them to cut excess capacity as much as possible. It costs money to maintain extra beds and staff, ya know. If anything, Obama made that problem worse by layering enormous bureaucratic requirements onto hospitals and medical staff. Staff are being practically strangled by badly-designed EHRs for example - you've heard me say that before, and I'll keep repeating it because it is the unspoken elephant in the room here.

[shekels]

Conspiracy Theory Updated to Real time

https://www.silicon.co.uk/e-regulation/ ... ata-338372