Gyroscopic Investing

WiseOne wrote: ↑Sat Jul 24, 2021 9:38 am Sorry KBG, I don't have time to comb through all those posts and piece together your argument. Can I have the Cliff notes summary?

Of course I'm not a medical professional, but I'm reasonably decent at statistics. In my view, the statistical correlation across the world to improved results for those vaccinated as well as the decline in the virus when the vaccine started to roll out are statistically a slam dunk. The data is also quite overwhelming as to what can be expected with the various manufactures' vaccine versions.

This virus has more data on it than any other medical device/vaccine/procedure etc. etc. in history and from multiple sources no other medical issue has had as many scientists working on it simultaneously.

In short, one can nitpick here and there about different situations, but the overall picture is as crystal clear as anything is likely to get in the short term. Of note, I've consistently concurred that we do not know if there are any long term side effects and by definition we won't know.

Kbg wrote: ↑Mon Jul 26, 2021 10:48 am Of note, I've consistently concurred that we do not know if there are any long term side effects and by definition we won't know.

What should people do if they're concerned about the long-term side effects of the vaccines? Anyone?

flyingpylon wrote: ↑Mon Jul 26, 2021 11:18 am

Kbg wrote: ↑Mon Jul 26, 2021 10:48 am Of note, I've consistently concurred that we do not know if there are any long term side effects and by definition we won't know.

What should people do if they're concerned about the long-term side effects of the vaccines? Anyone?

Weigh the risks as you understand them?

--If deciding to not vaccinate
--Possible loss of some freedoms, or needing to lie, to get into various countries, events, etc.
--Higher risk of contracting a more serious illness from the virus

--If vaccinated
--Possible unknown long term side effects (pick your worst nightmare and insert here if you wish)

At 54, it was an easy decision, for me.

I've been counseling a friend of mine who has been very resistant to getting vaccinated, and also hates having to wear a mask. She is over 65 and has some risk factors. Her reasons are the same as most people's: she doesn't trust the pharmaceutical companies and government as far as she can throw them, and thinks the Democratic party and its extension (the mainstream media & social media giants) blew the pandemic out of proportion in order to make political hay and execute what she regards as effectively a coup. Both those positions are very easy to understand - and Biden & his buddies can only blame themselves for this.

I left well enough alone until she confided that her building had sent out a memo requiring everyone to wear masks, and she was worried that it meant someone in the building had been diagnosed with COVID. As in, she was genuinely worried. We talked about it a bit more, and she admitted she's changed a lot of her daily habits & lifestyle to avoid potential exposure. She said she didn't mind some of the changes (like not taking the subway) but other things (e.g. turning down invites to join singing groups) she does miss.

This is what I told her: If she's actively worrying about getting COVID and giving up on life experiences because of it, that's an indication that she should just get the dang vaccine. I also pointed out that as COVID is endemic, she will not be able to avoid it forever. She thinks she has already been exposed and that may well be true, but in that case, she wouldn't be worrying now would she?

So now she's considering the vaccine and researching which one to get. I told her I'd go with her to the appointment and be on hand in case she has side effects.

Hope that's helpful. The unknown risks of the vaccine (like, are we suddenly going to see an epidemic of some type of cancer or autoimmune disease 5 years from now) are simply not quantifiable, so I think it's really about whether you think your COVID risk is unacceptable.

Cortopassi wrote: ↑Mon Jul 26, 2021 11:34 am

flyingpylon wrote: ↑Mon Jul 26, 2021 11:18 am

Kbg wrote: ↑Mon Jul 26, 2021 10:48 am Of note, I've consistently concurred that we do not know if there are any long term side effects and by definition we won't know.

What should people do if they're concerned about the long-term side effects of the vaccines? Anyone?

Weigh the risks as you understand them?

--If deciding to not vaccinate
--Possible loss of some freedoms, or needing to lie, to get into various countries, events, etc.
--Higher risk of contracting a more serious illness from the virus

--If vaccinated
--Possible unknown long term side effects (pick your worst nightmare and insert here if you wish)

At 54, it was an easy decision, for me.

This is life right? I drive to work everyday and everyday there is a not small, but not great, likelihood of being killed or maimed. But, the convenience is worth it to me.

On Covid though I would argue you are trading a known known for an unknown unknown…by the rules of logic and statistical inference the choice is easy from a rational perspective…but humans aren’t entirely rational either.

The unknown unknown. I like that.

The networks are trying to promote vaccination. Yet, every single episode shows a person getting a needle into their shoulder. Not exactly Marketing 101. There are a lot of people who are simply afraid of shots. So yeah, let’s run footage of needles being buried into shoulders. Morons.

WiseOne wrote: ↑Mon Jul 26, 2021 11:53 am I also pointed out that as COVID is endemic, she will not be able to avoid it forever. She thinks she has already been exposed and that may well be true, but in that case, she wouldn't be worrying now would she?

If she thinks she's already been exposed, what would it hurt to get an antibody test? If she has natural immunity, then she's good. No?

Maddy wrote: ↑Mon Jul 26, 2021 7:57 pm

WiseOne wrote: ↑Mon Jul 26, 2021 11:53 am I also pointed out that as COVID is endemic, she will not be able to avoid it forever. She thinks she has already been exposed and that may well be true, but in that case, she wouldn't be worrying now would she?

If she thinks she's already been exposed, what would it hurt to get an antibody test? If she has natural immunity, then she's good. No?

She got an antibody test and it was negative. Unfortunately, that doesn't help much because she was likely exposed a year before that test, and it's known to go negative in most cases after 6 months.

In fact, she developed a mysterious pneumonia in February 2020 and was sick for weeks. And, I came over to visit and run errands for her at the time. We both think it could have been COVID, but of course there's no way to know.

yankees60 wrote: ↑Wed Jul 28, 2021 10:10 pmCapture.JPG

The Titanic sinking didn't have a 99% survival rate.

So whoever came up with that cartoon is just demonstrating their own paranoia.

pp4me wrote: ↑Thu Jul 29, 2021 1:35 pm

yankees60 wrote: ↑Wed Jul 28, 2021 10:10 pmCapture.JPG

The Titanic sinking didn't have a 99% survival rate.

So whoever came up with that cartoon is just demonstrating their own paranoia.

Sure, but it is funny how the balloons capture basically everything some people say here! Like "Nobody I know saw an iceberg..."

Cortopassi wrote: ↑Thu Jul 29, 2021 2:27 pm

pp4me wrote: ↑Thu Jul 29, 2021 1:35 pm

yankees60 wrote: ↑Wed Jul 28, 2021 10:10 pmCapture.JPG

The Titanic sinking didn't have a 99% survival rate.

So whoever came up with that cartoon is just demonstrating their own paranoia.

Sure, but it is funny how the balloons capture basically everything some people say here! Like "Nobody I know saw an iceberg..."

Stupidity comes in many forms.

Don't know who this guy is but I thought it was an interesting twitter post, if true.....



And as an added bonus I really liked this post in the same thread. All I can say is Amen....

pp4me wrote: ↑Thu Jul 29, 2021 2:30 pm

Cortopassi wrote: ↑Thu Jul 29, 2021 2:27 pm

pp4me wrote: ↑Thu Jul 29, 2021 1:35 pm

yankees60 wrote: ↑Wed Jul 28, 2021 10:10 pmCapture.JPG

The Titanic sinking didn't have a 99% survival rate.

So whoever came up with that cartoon is just demonstrating their own paranoia.

Sure, but it is funny how the balloons capture basically everything some people say here! Like "Nobody I know saw an iceberg..."

Stupidity comes in many forms.

When I first glanced what you'd written I thought you'd written:

Stupidity comes in many "forums"

!!!

yankees60 wrote: ↑Thu Jul 29, 2021 3:03 pm

pp4me wrote: ↑Thu Jul 29, 2021 2:30 pm

Cortopassi wrote: ↑Thu Jul 29, 2021 2:27 pm

pp4me wrote: ↑Thu Jul 29, 2021 1:35 pm

yankees60 wrote: ↑Wed Jul 28, 2021 10:10 pmCapture.JPG

The Titanic sinking didn't have a 99% survival rate.

So whoever came up with that cartoon is just demonstrating their own paranoia.

Sure, but it is funny how the balloons capture basically everything some people say here! Like "Nobody I know saw an iceberg..."

Stupidity comes in many forms.

When I first glanced what you'd written I thought you'd written:

Stupidity comes in many "forums"

!!!

That's probably also true.

https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles ... ium=social


Prognosis
U.S. Doctors Lose Patience as They Confront Vaccine Hesitancy
By Rebecca Torrence
July 29, 2021, 10:30 AM EDT


In Mississippi, for example, which has the lowest vaccination rate in the country -- 36% -- nearly a quarter of the doses go unused. Thomas Dobbs, an officer in the state’s health department, told a press conference in late July of feeling helpless as the delta variant spreads.


“I’m frustrated, I’m mad, I’m upset, I’m depressed because we’re going to watch people needlessly die over the next month or two,” he said.

Christopher Mason, who studies the genomic sequencing of Covid variants at New York’s Weill Cornell Medical Center, said that states with lower vaccination rates also have reduced sequencing abilities, which makes it harder to detect changes in the virus’s makeup.

“The places where we need the most information about how the virus is mutating, we have the least amount of information,” he said.

He said this resistance has driven colleagues to leave the field, exhausted by the past year and frustrated with the public’s rejection of vaccines.

“It’s the duration of the pandemic and the constant workload, but also the feeling of society’s disrespect of a vaccine that can prevent the very pandemic that we’re in,” he said. “Knowing that there’s a way to prevent it and they’re still saying ‘no thanks’ is just maddening to people working in health care.”

pp4me wrote: ↑Thu Jul 29, 2021 2:52 pm Don't know who this guy is but I thought it was an interesting twitter post, if true.....



And as an added bonus I really liked this post in the same thread. All I can say is Amen....

Has anyone of medical authority really ever sufficiently answered how Sweden has gone against the world in terms of masks, lockdowns and vaccines but yet has not been dragging bodies out of the streets?

jalanlong wrote: ↑Thu Jul 29, 2021 6:03 pm

pp4me wrote: ↑Thu Jul 29, 2021 2:52 pm Don't know who this guy is but I thought it was an interesting twitter post, if true.....



And as an added bonus I really liked this post in the same thread. All I can say is Amen....

Has anyone of medical authority really ever sufficiently answered how Sweden has gone against the world in terms of masks, lockdowns and vaccines but yet has not been dragging bodies out of the streets?

This is a real nice interview on that, if you have 40 minutes.
https://youtu.be/0017zNe7obo

jalanlong wrote: ↑Thu Jul 29, 2021 6:03 pm

pp4me wrote: ↑Thu Jul 29, 2021 2:52 pm Don't know who this guy is but I thought it was an interesting twitter post, if true.....



And as an added bonus I really liked this post in the same thread. All I can say is Amen....

Has anyone of medical authority really ever sufficiently answered how Sweden has gone against the world in terms of masks, lockdowns and vaccines but yet has not been dragging bodies out of the streets?

Except for some temporary insanity at the beginning, Florida has basically followed the Swedish model and I'm not seeing bodies in the streets.

As for a "medical authority", how would you even know who to believe nowadays?

pp4me wrote: ↑Thu Jul 29, 2021 6:38 pm


As for a "medical authority", how would you even know who to believe nowadays?

That's true and it's not just a wacky right wing talking point. Fauci is a prominent example.
We don't need masks, they aren't effective in this case.
Everyone must wear masks.
Double masks are a very good idea.
Kids need to wear masks.
It's not good for kids to wear masks.

Etc.

It sure feels like they say whatever they need to say to try to make the case, and then when the facts change, they say the new thing with 100% certainty. Until the next change.

pp4me wrote: ↑Thu Jul 29, 2021 6:38 pm

jalanlong wrote: ↑Thu Jul 29, 2021 6:03 pm

pp4me wrote: ↑Thu Jul 29, 2021 2:52 pm Don't know who this guy is but I thought it was an interesting twitter post, if true.....



And as an added bonus I really liked this post in the same thread. All I can say is Amen....

Has anyone of medical authority really ever sufficiently answered how Sweden has gone against the world in terms of masks, lockdowns and vaccines but yet has not been dragging bodies out of the streets?

Except for some temporary insanity at the beginning, Florida has basically followed the Swedish model and I'm not seeing bodies in the streets.

As for a "medical authority", how would you even know who to believe nowadays?

I'm in the most densely populated county in FL. Just went to a big family reunion with my wife's old ass family. About 30 people, avg age 70. Not one ever got sick from covid. I now know one person out of thousands of people i know and work with who actually got sick allegedly from covid. She's about 60 years old, obese, and came back from 3 weeks in south America sick. What are the chances??? No bodies anywhere. I spent 3 months late last year with my daughter in the hospital, not one reported case on the floor ever with parents and doctors and nurses etc. This pandemic is indescribable.

Maybe other places have felt it but not here and we have maybe the most relaxed regs in the country and an elderly population to boot.

Looks to me like the strategy of letting the virus spread through the healthy population to achieve herd immunity worked. Exactly what Fauci assures us is impossible. Good to know!

We are probably seeing a similar effect in New York City. Hospitalizations and deaths are near zero here too, despite a very uneven vaccination rate across neighborhoods & social classes. (And of course the deaths are overestimated since it's anyone who dies with a positive COVID test, regardless of the actual cause of death.) Technically, most of the outer boroughs are like Alabama in vaccination rate - and they are the neighborhoods who were the epicenter of COVID cases in the city a year ago. Chances are, most of them have already been exposed to the virus and have natural immunity.

Swedish death rate per reported cases 1.3%, 51% of population vaccinated

Zero deaths reported in the most recently reported day

US death rate per reported cases 1.7%, 52% of population vaccinated

375 deaths reported in the most recently reported day

US population is 33x that of Sweden

I guess that Swedish example doesn't survive all that well when facts are included.

Statistically, the US has a meaningfully higher death rate. Vaccination rates are statistically equivalent. I'm going to guess that the former is a result of poorer overall health and obesity in the US (but that's a pure guess).

As for Florida...I can't find anything that suggests its much different than the rest of the US. Very slightly higher at most.

Across the US, going by the data alone, clearly the delta variant is causing an uptrend in cases.

Another thing crystal clear in the data...the COVID death rate in the US has been quite consistent at a bit below 2% of infected and on a very slow decline. Of those currently dying...2% vaccinated and 98% unvaccinated.

There's the odds boys and girls, put your money on the table.