Gyroscopic Investing

dualstow wrote:Gold seems to be up like US$80/oz tonight. Kitco has crashed.
Brexit vote is 60% counted...

Didn't you hear the news about reboot Chekov? I'm surprised you didn't change your avatar!

I heard that he was killed by a faulty car (gearshift?) Very sad.

No one is excited by the strength gold is showing? We are now up $280 in 6 months!

Libertarian666 wrote:No one is excited by the strength gold is showing? We are now up $280 in 6 months!

It's the Scream room not the Jump and Cheer room.

Libertarian666 wrote:No one is excited by the strength gold is showing? We are now up $280 in 6 months!

Very excited! I was out of town, though, and even if I had been at my desk, I didn't want to jinx it this time.
Happy with the entire pp. We're back to "everything seems high", which is not such a terrible place to be. I can think of worse.

$1367! I think that is a new two-year high, eclipsing the brief surge on Brexit day.

Not to dampen the enthusiasm, but since I went all in with the PP about 7 years ago, the only sector that's still in the red is gold. I'm very happy that it's rising, of course, but it's still 2% below the break even point.

curlew wrote:Not to dampen the enthusiasm, but since I went all in with the PP about 7 years ago, the only sector that's still in the red is gold. I'm very happy that it's rising, of course, but it's still 2% below the break even point.

Recency bias - it never fails.

curlew wrote:Not to dampen the enthusiasm, but since I went all in with the PP about 7 years ago, the only sector that's still in the red is gold. I'm very happy that it's rising, of course, but it's still 2% below the break even point.

I'm not sure how your gold holding can possibly be in the red if you bought it 7 years ago. The highest London fix in 2009 was $1212.50, about $150 less than the price today.

curlew wrote:Not to dampen the enthusiasm, but since I went all in with the PP about 7 years ago, the only sector that's still in the red is gold. I'm very happy that it's rising, of course, but it's still 2% below the break even point.

Did you at least hit a rebalance? I've been accumilulatig the lagging asset (i.e. Gold) so I'm pretty happy now, even though I think it may still be red overall. I am not a fan of how total portfolio performance seems tied directly to gold-- id reduce my position to something like the golden butterfly but I don't really want to do it at the worst time (inevitably whenever I do it will be the worst possible time)

dragoncar wrote:

curlew wrote:Not to dampen the enthusiasm, but since I went all in with the PP about 7 years ago, the only sector that's still in the red is gold. I'm very happy that it's rising, of course, but it's still 2% below the break even point.

Did you at least hit a rebalance? I've been accumilulatig the lagging asset (i.e. Gold) so I'm pretty happy now, even though I think it may still be red overall. I am not a fan of how total portfolio performance seems tied directly to gold-- id reduce my position to something like the golden butterfly but I don't really want to do it at the worst time (inevitably whenever I do it will be the worst possible time)

I adopted the golden butterfly in January and had to sell some bonds and buy gold just to bring it up to the 20% mark for the GB. Wish I'd bought more now.

dragoncar wrote:

curlew wrote:Not to dampen the enthusiasm, but since I went all in with the PP about 7 years ago, the only sector that's still in the red is gold. I'm very happy that it's rising, of course, but it's still 2% below the break even point.

Did you at least hit a rebalance? I've been accumilulatig the lagging asset (i.e. Gold) so I'm pretty happy now, even though I think it may still be red overall. I am not a fan of how total portfolio performance seems tied directly to gold-- id reduce my position to something like the golden butterfly but I don't really want to do it at the worst time (inevitably whenever I do it will be the worst possible time)

The portfolio always depends on one or more assets working to overcome the lagging performer.
We both experienced the bust in gold, but it is a necessary component in the portfolio as we are witnessing now.
It just seems like gold is driving the portfolio, but we did just fine (2011-2015) even when gold under-performed.
Both stocks and bonds are up too YTD.

^ +1
I'm still down about 5% in gold, but very happy.

I keep pinching myself...I debated long and hard about rebalancing my UGLD at year end and it was so hard to pull the trigger. Today marked a 100% return! I shall celebrate today because tomorrow starts the decline. :-)

Awesome, kbg!

curlew wrote:Not to dampen the enthusiasm, but since I went all in with the PP about 7 years ago, the only sector that's still in the red is gold. I'm very happy that it's rising, of course, but it's still 2% below the break even point.

Almost 4 years since my first Gold (ETF) purchase.

Today at a -0.2% return -- almost break even!

(Didn't go all in and still not, but have increased Gold allocation over the years.)

Dieter wrote:

curlew wrote:Not to dampen the enthusiasm, but since I went all in with the PP about 7 years ago, the only sector that's still in the red is gold. I'm very happy that it's rising, of course, but it's still 2% below the break even point.

Almost 4 years since my first Gold (ETF) purchase.

Today at a -0.2% return -- almost break even!

(Didn't go all in and still not, but have increased Gold allocation over the years.)

I bought some physical gold over the course of a couple years after I started the PP. 45 Golden Eagles to be exact. I was thinking with the recent performance of Gold maybe those coins were now in positive territory, but alas, they are still worth less than $1,000 than I paid for them and I would sell them at a loss.

I'm not trying to sound like Mathjak, but just because gold has been rising lately, it doesn't seem like such a big reason for rejoicing when you look at the overall picture. I mean, I'm not going to go over on Bogleheads and brag because a sector in my PP is almost at the break even point after 7 years.

curlew wrote:I'm not trying to sound like Mathjak, but just because gold has been rising lately, it doesn't seem like such a big reason for rejoicing when you look at the overall picture. I mean, I'm not going to go over on Bogleheads and brag because a sector in my PP is almost at the break even point after 7 years.

That's strange. Did you overpay for your American Eagles? Unless you bought near/at the 2011 top (raises hand), you shouldn't have a paper loss with gold trading at $1350ish.

curlew, I'm still deeper in the hole than you are. My first coin cost me more than $1680. Since then, I bought at different levels, down to maybe $1200, but my PHYS and IAU were really purchased near the top. My pp package is doing great, however.

Dieter wrote: Almost 4 years since my first Gold (ETF) purchase.

Today at a -0.2% return -- almost break even!

(Didn't go all in and still not, but have increased Gold allocation over the years.)

There's something about reaching breakeven with long-held losing investments that is even more satisfying than selling something at a gain. I have felt it occasionally with individual stocks. Feels great, doesn't it?

Humans are greedy, but they are perhaps even more loss-averse. That's why so many people hold on to losing stocks and call themselves "patient" when they should probably dump those stocks. (NB: does not apply to gold in the pp, of course. That's part of a logical plan).

Nice post DS.
The PP is more than the sum of its parts. It is a portfolio that will not sustain outsized losses in the hopes of achieving outsized gains. Look at you gains and losses since inception. Did the PP achieve the desired results? It has for me personally since 2011.

P.S. I hate gold and always will even if it goes to 5000.
I would rather have it at 2000 with our economy humming along...

Major bottom in for gold?:

http://energyandgold.com/2016/07/08/gol ... 500-ratio/

Reminds of those rides at amusement parks that go straight up at the top and stop right before reversing backwards.



Smart money still massively short:

dual stow wrote: <snip>

Dieter wrote: Almost 4 years since my first Gold (ETF) purchase.

Today at a -0.2% return -- almost break even!

(Didn't go all in and still not, but have increased Gold allocation over the years.)

There's something about reaching breakeven with long-held losing investments that is even more satisfying than selling something at a gain. I have felt it occasionally with individual stocks. Feels great, doesn't it?

Humans are greedy, but they are perhaps even more loss-averse. That's why so many people hold on to losing stocks and call themselves "patient" when they should probably dump those stocks. (NB: does not apply to gold in the pp, of course. That's part of a logical plan).

Aye, it's nice. As of today, my gold is down $2.27. Negative 0.0%

But everything going up together. Oh well, I should be happy with what I've got.

And my small allocation to PERM is having a good year too.

Reub wrote:Major bottom in for gold?:

http://energyandgold.com/2016/07/08/gol ... 500-ratio/

"Gold Technical Update: Major Bottom in Gold/S&P 500 Ratio"

That's a very interesting ratio to take a look at, from the point of view of how to construct a portfolio with some gold in it.

MachineGhost wrote:Reminds of those rides at amusement parks that go straight up at the top and stop right before reversing backwards.



Smart money still massively short:

Smart money is sure dumb.