Gyroscopic Investing

I see it differently...
Hedge fund competitors can take the other side of the trade and drive these holdings lower.
A newsletter is for retail investors not institutional which drives the volume we see in these markets.

Just for the record, out of TLT at 137.15 yesterday...don’t like the behavior..

With 700k in gld and tlt each I am staying for the long haul it looks like , but I am getting my ass kicked ...

Tlt down 64k Gld down 39,500

This pattern may change but I see:
Stocks up, LTT’s down
Stocks down, LTT’s down

Maybe I’ll buy back in when stocks are falling and not before so I can wait for the selling in Gold and LTT’s to end before they catch a bid.

The problem is we never know a temporary dip or spike from the real trend ..we assume it is a suckers rally and wait ..then we go okay next dip I am in , only that dip does not come and we miss the meatiest gains early on

I’m not overly concerned with losing out on gains, but rather more protective of downside losses.

buddtholomew wrote: ↑Fri Mar 26, 2021 9:39 am I’m not overly concerned with losing out on gains, but rather more protective of downside losses.

that we can never be sure of . i thought i was doing just that switching from my regular portfolio to the pp ...the pp gave me losses and the regular portfolio keeps moving ahead

mathjak107 wrote: ↑Fri Mar 26, 2021 9:46 am

buddtholomew wrote: ↑Fri Mar 26, 2021 9:39 am I’m not overly concerned with losing out on gains, but rather more protective of downside losses.

that we can never be sure of . i thought i was doing just that switching from my regular portfolio to the pp ...the pp gave me losses and the regular portfolio keeps moving ahead

I’m ok taking losses in stocks, losses in what I consider “protective assets” like Gold and LTT’s is more difficult to swallow.

Stocks so far have a history of recovery,sometimes short and some times longer ...but in the modern investing world ,today we have no idea what to expect from interest rates at all ...it took us 40 years to get to this point ..are we in for decades of reversal ?

buddtholomew wrote: ↑Fri Mar 26, 2021 10:18 am I’m ok taking losses in stocks, losses in what I consider “protective assets” like Gold and LTT’s is more difficult to swallow.

It's really frustrating when they don't zig enough for stocks' downward zag. But, they really aren't protective assets in the sense above. Or rather, they aren't protected assets. They can and do go down, a lot, as you know. Nothing is immune. It's all about the package, is it not?

ARKK was hit pretty hard this week.

Well that is the problem many times ..,when three major asset groups fall like that one may just have well Been 70-80% equities for the same level of volatility and loss or gain potential.

So far anyone starting the pp off since last august is losing money while more conventional portfolios have been gaining

Looks like this is another anything-can-happen year. Is the economy on track to recover or is it all an illusion?
I’m still hopeful for stocks, myself.

So far it looks like the economy is growing.

The problem is the stock market priced this recovery in already for the most part ..all we are really seeing is some spikes and falls from high frequency trading....we have rising bond rates killing gold and long term treasuries...the lack of rising rates are killing short term t bills with zero or negative real returns and stocks seemed to have already done most of what they were going to do .

Little looks good for the pp..this is one of those times having less interest rate sensitivity in bonds and gold can make all the difference to a positive year or not.

All I am seeing is the models I left going up weekly while I slide deeper down or still hovering about the same in losses of about 100k

Let’s hope this will turnaround today as PP is getting clobbered. Not much green on the screen.

I’ve been saying this for weeks now...
Stocks down, gold and LTT down
Stocks up, gold and LTT’s may catch a bid.

I do recall 1 day when stocks were down and both gold and LTT’s up.

What is unsettling is the fact that if you look at Tyler’s insight on recession portfolios and look at the worst months he posted , the pp is down as much as it was in 2008 and 1974 WITH STOCKS AT THEIR HIGHS today ...it isn’t like equities plunged 40-50% and now we have a huge recovery To lift things back .

Nope , equities did the bulk of their thing already and are at record highs and the pp is down as much as in the worst recessions ..

She’s a beaut ain’t she?
2/3 assets down 1%+

Not a good time for it that is for sure ...at least in the past stocks were beaten up bad when the pp was down .

But now stocks are already at a new high so the primary driver of gains has one hand tied behind its back and the pp is down around its worst recession lows

mathjak107 wrote: ↑Mon Mar 29, 2021 1:29 pm and the pp is down around its worst recession lows

What timeframe???

Take a look at Tyler’s chart in the recession proof portfolio insight article ....he found the worst month was 1974 2008 and March of the pandemic.

In 2008 when stocks were at their lows he shows pp down 5% .stocks gave us amazing lift .

We have the pp down 5% or more now with stocks at record highs

Follow my logic and why I say this is unsettling...?


The usual lead horse is already tired

Well, mj, I know you don't believe it, and I'd have to say I'm not convinced either, but....

maybe it is time for that lead horse to change for a spell.

Continuing the analogy, I expect the entire field to pull back when the lead horse falters.

Cortopassi wrote: ↑Mon Mar 29, 2021 2:22 pm Well, mj, I know you don't believe it, and I'd have to say I'm not convinced either, but....

maybe it is time for that lead horse to change for a spell.

Even if stocks fall it doesn’t mean the economic outcomes are right for Tlt or gld .

Stocks tanking from rate and inflation fears does not mean gold and tlt don’t plunge too.there is no see saw effect

To many options today including Bitcoin , inverse funds , and high speed trading and shorting than the old days when stocks fell

mathjak107 wrote: ↑Mon Mar 29, 2021 2:39 pm

Cortopassi wrote: ↑Mon Mar 29, 2021 2:22 pm Well, mj, I know you don't believe it, and I'd have to say I'm not convinced either, but....

maybe it is time for that lead horse to change for a spell.

Even if stocks fall it doesn’t mean the economic outcomes are right for Tlt or gld .

Stocks tanking from rate and inflation fears does not mean gold and tlt don’t plunge too.there is no see saw effect

To many options today including Bitcoin , inverse funds , and high speed trading and shorting than the old days when stocks fell

Absolutely, and cash might end up winning 2021. Who knows...none of these market moves even seem connected to real economy anymore. Look at emerging markets that posted huge gdp growth numbers over last decade and have remained essentially flat.

Typically it is stocks that tank so regular portfolios are all down generally ...some just may be down more and others less but pretty much just pick one and odds are it’s down .

But what you have now is stocks are not tanking and most if not all regular portfolios are up for 2021 and not to shabbily either .

But here I am choosing the pp at a bad time and I am so far below the portfolio I left . All because I wanted to have more protection for those accumulated gains I had . Ha ha ha . I was better off in the old model ,little did I know , it had better protection by being better insulated from rates

Well here I am losing those gains in the pp while the model I left is still going higher and higher ....that is. A tough pill to swallow

It's hard to take a contrarian stance..... Stock bull markets especially late stage are brutally hard to resist. My sentiments and emotions are indicator that this must be getting towards finale. Who knows though.