Page 41 of 48
Re: mathjak's daytrading adventures
Posted: Thu Mar 18, 2021 12:46 pm
by mathjak107
vincent_c wrote: ↑Thu Mar 18, 2021 12:28 pm
Do you guys realize that it is because we have this difference in opinion regarding whether the Fed has control of yields which is why we have our current situation.
The fact is that ultimate control lies with the Fed because they control short term interest rates and the USD supply.
Those who say the Fed doesn't have control of the markets are just saying that their powers are limited by practical considerations.
All this means is that the Fed ought to exercise discretion and should act in the way that best meets its mandates. What the Fed has been telling us is that they are willing to risk price stability to ensure a better labor situation.
If the fed really had control over bond rates then when they were telegraphing via raising short term rates that they wanted higher long term rates in 2006-2007 we would not have had investors run with the ball pulling bond rates down in to the inverted yield curve
Re: mathjak's daytrading adventures
Posted: Thu Mar 18, 2021 1:01 pm
by mathjak107
vincent_c wrote: ↑Thu Mar 18, 2021 12:58 pm
Let's make sure we get this right.
The Fed telegraphing anything doesn't mean anything.
If the US government actually wanted to raise long yields they could sell more LTTs or they could get the fed to taper on the long end any purchasing programs they had or they could outright sell LTTs as well.
If there was a situation where the bond rates were going down because of market forces, it's just because it was allowed to do so or there was a lack of coordination on the policy maker side.
Time will tell the way we are going whether the fed can wrestle the rates down when the time comes
Re: mathjak's daytrading adventures
Posted: Thu Mar 18, 2021 1:51 pm
by mathjak107
Yes , key to everything is will they try .....2-3% inflation is still low and bonds tend to track inflation, and to the fed this 2-3% may be no problem, the damage done to existing bond holders is huge depending how much you have invested
I need an 80k gain just to get even in Tlt alone
Re: mathjak's daytrading adventures
Posted: Thu Mar 18, 2021 1:52 pm
by buddtholomew
mathjak107 wrote: ↑Thu Mar 18, 2021 1:51 pm
Yes , key to everything is will they try .....2-3% inflation is still low and bonds tend to track inflation, and to the fed may be no problem, the damage done to existing bond holders is huge depending how much you have invested
Precisely, but do they care about 30-year treasury holders? I think not.
Re: mathjak's daytrading adventures
Posted: Thu Mar 18, 2021 1:54 pm
by mathjak107
buddtholomew wrote: ↑Thu Mar 18, 2021 1:52 pm
mathjak107 wrote: ↑Thu Mar 18, 2021 1:51 pm
Yes , key to everything is will they try .....2-3% inflation is still low and bonds tend to track inflation, and to the fed may be no problem, the damage done to existing bond holders is huge depending how much you have invested
Precisely, but do they care about 30-year treasury holders? I think not.
I don’t know , can’t say ...all I know is it is getting harder and harder to climb back up.
Tlt for me down 10.27 and Gld down 5.50% I am running about 5% less then the ytd since I averaged in daily for months
Re: mathjak's daytrading adventures
Posted: Thu Mar 18, 2021 1:57 pm
by mathjak107
It is really not , anymore then a car replaces 300 horses..if it requires less dollars it is deflation , more inflation .
You can’t really compare betterment anymore as dollars. Technology marches on regardless if more or less money
Re: mathjak's daytrading adventures
Posted: Thu Mar 18, 2021 2:17 pm
by Mark Leavy
It is deflation for that particular good or service.
The Mark Leavy Basket of Goods and Services seems to be inflating at about 5 to 10% a year in US Dollar terms over the last 5 years. At a relatively stable level of consumption and quality of life.
Re: mathjak's daytrading adventures
Posted: Thu Mar 18, 2021 2:18 pm
by mathjak107
Because we pay the same or more for added features that didn’t exist before .
At one time you could argue that there was no inflation in cars because a 1975 impala had better features then a 1971 caddy .
But the world expects technology today to give them more at lower prices ... if the prices go up then that is inflation to most of us.
We expect technology to be cheaper each year
Re: mathjak's daytrading adventures
Posted: Thu Mar 18, 2021 2:28 pm
by buddtholomew
Just for the record I purchased TLT at 134.18
1/4 of what I previously owned.
Re: mathjak's daytrading adventures
Posted: Thu Mar 18, 2021 2:28 pm
by mathjak107
I think we tend to just go by what is ..if this years jeep cost 1000 bucks over last years model ,despite improvements we look at that as inflation....when prices fall like computers we tend to not buy what we had but we buy in the same price range and get a better machine.
So we tend to do constant spending and not downgrade to cheaper even though cheaper was the equal
Re: mathjak's daytrading adventures
Posted: Thu Mar 18, 2021 2:37 pm
by mathjak107
I go by my own life , which is all I can do ...we still spend as much as we have over the last 6 years .....if y goes up we buy less of x or we don’t do z....life is very different.
In fact many studies show seniors don’t see much inflation ....after the early go go years of retirement, the slow go years have lots of things no longer bought or done , so that helps defray the costs on what went up ...many studies show how seniors don’t need yearly inflation adjustments....then we hit the no go years and healthcare rises
Re: mathjak's daytrading adventures
Posted: Thu Mar 18, 2021 3:01 pm
by buddtholomew
vincent_c wrote: ↑Thu Mar 18, 2021 2:30 pm
buddtholomew wrote: ↑Thu Mar 18, 2021 2:28 pm
Just for the record I purchased TLT at 134.18
1/4 of what I previously owned.
Did the crude action have any impact on this decision?
Out at 134.40 as SPY continues to fall and TLT stopped rebounding.
Re: mathjak's daytrading adventures
Posted: Fri Mar 19, 2021 1:40 pm
by mathjak107
Wow so far Tlt and Gld in the green .
Now Tlt only down 73,664 and Gld only down 32,773..9.87% and 4.64% respectively
Re: mathjak's daytrading adventures
Posted: Fri Mar 19, 2021 1:42 pm
by buddtholomew
Triple witching.
Last hour should be fun as long as we’re +ve.
Re: mathjak's daytrading adventures
Posted: Tue Mar 23, 2021 9:40 am
by buddtholomew
In TLT at 136.50
Hopefully for good!
AA: 35/15/5/45 stocks/gold/LTT’s/cash
Re: mathjak's daytrading adventures
Posted: Tue Mar 23, 2021 10:52 am
by mathjak107
Good luck ..I am only down 63k in Tlt now ...34k in gold
Re: mathjak's daytrading adventures
Posted: Tue Mar 23, 2021 1:21 pm
by mathjak107
I think the markets are over stating inflation...if I didn’t I would have sold out long ago before committing so much money..but what do I know , the markets could be correct and we get hammered
Re: mathjak's daytrading adventures
Posted: Tue Mar 23, 2021 2:08 pm
by buddtholomew
Legging into TLT as I’ve been lucky enough to avoid the recent pull-back. What the FED wants and what we get may be polar opposites.
Re: mathjak's daytrading adventures
Posted: Tue Mar 23, 2021 3:43 pm
by mathjak107
Bought 116 shares arkk at 121.57.
Pp has been averaged down and now stands at
5023 shares TLT 149.02
4267 shares Gld 169.98
3745 Bil , 3271 shy and fdlxx
Equities are equal dollars as far as total equity amount compared to Gld and tlt , in fidelity contra , vti , voo and now arkk
Re: mathjak's daytrading adventures
Posted: Tue Mar 23, 2021 6:27 pm
by dualstow
mathjak107 wrote: ↑Tue Mar 23, 2021 3:43 pm
Bought 116 shares arkk at 121.57.
Aren’t you 3 years late? Well, maybe not. I still believe in tech and Cathie Wood is smart.
But, I want to hear you rag on ARKK every day that it goes down as long as you’re holding it.
Re: mathjak's daytrading adventures
Posted: Tue Mar 23, 2021 6:31 pm
by mathjak107
It just may fall but I have a lot more faith in cathie wood eventually turning the fund around then I do in Tlt drifting wherever rates go.
It is also a small position ....it is under 15k in an almost 700k equity position
Re: mathjak's daytrading adventures
Posted: Tue Mar 23, 2021 7:12 pm
by buddtholomew
Do you see her fund/s as a potential target given how open she is with her stock picks? I don’t see other managers exposing this information in real-time.
Re: mathjak's daytrading adventures
Posted: Wed Mar 24, 2021 2:50 am
by mathjak107
buddtholomew wrote: ↑Tue Mar 23, 2021 7:12 pm
Do you see her fund/s as a potential target given how open she is with her stock picks? I don’t see other managers exposing this information in real-time.
I think she exposes her hand for the most part after she is in it
Re: mathjak's daytrading adventures
Posted: Wed Mar 24, 2021 7:43 am
by dualstow
If anything, she may benefit from copycat trades. it’s like a free newsletter.
Her main tailwind is all the new money pouring into her funds. It will be hard for her to match the performance of the past.
Re: mathjak's daytrading adventures
Posted: Wed Mar 24, 2021 7:54 am
by mathjak107
I look at it as QQQ 0n steroids...
I would only have a relatively smaller amount in it since fidelity contra is a big position and holds much of the same biggies