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https://www.gyroscopicinvesting.com/forum/viewtopic.php?t=3098
That's an easy one.MachineGhost wrote: I move in support of creating a Coolidge AI Bot with the ultimate aim of replacing the entire U.S. government with it.
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Should be interesting to see what happens to this chart after QE3.MediumTex wrote: You might enjoy checking out this site periodically as we get closer to election day:
http://electoral-vote.com/evp2012/Pres/ ... -2012.html
It's got Obama winning pretty easily.
I assume you think that it favors Obama.AdamA wrote:Should be interesting to see what happens to this chart after QE3.MediumTex wrote: You might enjoy checking out this site periodically as we get closer to election day:
http://electoral-vote.com/evp2012/Pres/ ... -2012.html
It's got Obama winning pretty easily.
Not really. Just curious to see what impact, if any, it has on the election.MediumTex wrote:
I assume you think that it favors Obama.
I would wait for doodle to panic before doing anything speculative with LT treasuries.moda0306 wrote: Any predictions on this years debt-ceiling circus? I think it will, once again, send rates down, along with the stock market, especially with a deflationary time-bomb in the tax-hike/spending-cut scenario that might pan out. With the last three months of stock gains and LTT's going over 3% today, I think I'm going to make a VP move into LTT's.
+++Reub wrote: Again, there is no doubt in my mind that most sources of this media are in the tank for Obama and I believe that they are skewing the polls intentionally (more than they usually do) to invigorate Obama's base and suppress the Romney support.
First off the website you are referencing as being nonskewed is clearly an anti-Obama propaganda site. Secondly the suggestion that Romney is ahead by 7+% is laughable. His own staff and polls generally see themselves as behind. If Romney is ahead by 7% we are looking at a repeat of Reagan's 49 state sweep.Reub wrote: Here is an article that talks to the skewing of polls. There is a site, http://www.unskewedpolls.com/ that shows Romney is ahead by 7.8%.
Again, there is no doubt in my mind that most sources of this media are in the tank for Obama and I believe that they are skewing the polls intentionally (more than they usually do) to invigorate Obama's base and suppress the Romney support.
Here is the article:
http://pjmedia.com/tatler/2012/09/23/sk ... wed-polls/
I'm going to write-in Calvin Coolidge.Ad Orientem wrote:First off the website you are referencing as being nonskewed is clearly an anti-Obama propaganda site. Secondly the suggestion that Romney is ahead by 7+% is laughable. His own staff and polls generally see themselves as behind. If Romney is ahead by 7% we are looking at a repeat of Reagan's 49 state sweep.Reub wrote: Here is an article that talks to the skewing of polls. There is a site, http://www.unskewedpolls.com/ that shows Romney is ahead by 7.8%.
Again, there is no doubt in my mind that most sources of this media are in the tank for Obama and I believe that they are skewing the polls intentionally (more than they usually do) to invigorate Obama's base and suppress the Romney support.
Here is the article:
http://pjmedia.com/tatler/2012/09/23/sk ... wed-polls/
I don't like Obama but it seems to me you are getting all of your information from right wing propaganda sites. That's not a good way of establishing bias. Barring the proverbial "October surprise" that changes the political landscape, if Romney wins by anything even close to 5% I will eat my left big toe. Frankly, sans some game changer, I will be very surprised if Romney wins at all.
Disclaimer: I have no dog in this fight as I am pretty sure I am voting for Calvin Coolidge.
He's ready and waiting!TennPaGa wrote: Are left big toes in the Gumby Diet?
[/align]Incidentally, the tastiest and healthiest chicken stock is made from chicken feet.MachineGhost wrote:He's ready and waiting!TennPaGa wrote: Are left big toes in the Gumby Diet?
As if we couldn't tell that you get most of your information from right-wing propaganda sites, you ought to know that nobody (except Fox News junkies) takes UnskewedPolls seriously...Reub wrote: Here is an article that talks to the skewing of polls. There is a site, http://www.unskewedpolls.com/ that shows Romney is ahead by 7.8%.
Making the rounds lately is a new site, UnskewedPolls.com.
The website is seeking to mitigate republican fears that Romney is slightly behind Obama by tweaking the partisan tilt rightward, rejecting polled data, and weighting them in favor of their candidate based on an extremely favorable formula from a Republican-leaning firm.
Now, you can believe it if you want, but you're deluding yourself and you deserve to know why
[...]
UnskewedPolls are really just skewing individual polls to fit a preferred reality, when what they should be doing is looking at an aggregation of polls weighted for their quantifiable historical biases and correcting for them to give an appropriate picture.
Then again, this all comes down to what you want in a poll. If you want a political talking point, some thing to spin to favor a preferred candidate, that's your own business, enjoy UnskewedPolls.com and enjoy life in a self selected vortex of spin.
But if you want to use a poll to gain insight on a race or to learn more about the public perception of an issue, just understand this: the methodology, the mentality, and the mathematics of UnskewedPolls.com leads to some incorrect conclusions.
Source: http://www.businessinsider.com/unskewedpolls-2012-9
Reub,Reub wrote: It might be that the methodology being used by the mainstream pro-Obama media might skewed instead.
I just saw a new poll that has Romney within the margin of error in Pennsylvania, 47/45. This is in a state that Romney has hardly campaigned in. All I'm saying is that if you think that this race is over think again.
And I do believe that many of the polls are tilted in favor of Obama to try and influence the vote. Same as with the media's reporting. Thank goodness for Univision!
I think Nate Silver's algorithm corrects for the left or right-leaning biases in polling firms and their polls, so I don't know how much more objective you can get than that.Reub wrote: It might be that the methodology being used by the mainstream pro-Obama media might skewed instead.
I just saw a new poll that has Romney within the margin of error in Pennsylvania, 47/45. This is in a state that Romney has hardly campaigned in. All I'm saying is that if you think that this race is over think again.
And I do believe that many of the polls are tilted in favor of Obama to try and influence the vote. Same as with the media's reporting. Thank goodness for Univision!
But bookies have to adjust the spread if they take in too much money to one side and that will effect the odds. Future contracts might be better: http://iemweb.biz.uiowa.edu/quotes/Pres12_Quotes.htmlAd Orientem wrote: If I'm reading this right (not a big gambler here) the current odds look to be about 5:1 in favor of Obama. So if you are really convinced Romney is gonna win this you have a fantastic VP play right in front of you.
That seems a bit below the belt. Reub's expressing skepticism about polls and the conventional wisdom, not stolen elections.TennPaGa wrote: Are there circumstances under which you will consider an Obama victory legitimate?
Because, based on your posts, I'm thinking "no".
Romney has decided to pay more taxes than he would legally owe. This is a smart businessman?TennPaGa wrote: However, win or lose, after the election he is free to file an amended return claiming the full deduction, in which case IRS will cut him a check.
LBO.dragoncar wrote: Romney has decided to loan the government some money interest free for a few months to increase his chances of winning the presidency. Seems like a prudent move (except insofar as it makes him seem even more disingenuous).
