Gyroscopic Investing

yankees60 wrote: ↑Mon Feb 07, 2022 9:27 pm
Quite the sentence I just read in his book!

"There are no investors I know and no senior economic policy makers I know - and I know many and I know the best - who have any excellent understandings of what happened in the past and why."

I absolutely believe this quote. This is also the reason why I think there aren't more people who invest in gold.

Smith1776 wrote: ↑Mon Feb 07, 2022 9:35 pm

yankees60 wrote: ↑Mon Feb 07, 2022 9:27 pm

Quite the sentence I just read in his book!

"There are no investors I know and no senior economic policy makers I know - and I know many and I know the best - who have any excellent understandings of what happened in the past and why."

I absolutely believe this quote. This is also the reason why I think there aren't more people who invest in gold.

Care to put here the table that is on page 228? The Worst Investor Experiences? How would the Permanent Portfolio have done in those countries during each of those 20 year time periods? Probably a lot less worse!!??

I'm gonna do something that's probably against forum rules... but whatever.

Smith1776 wrote: ↑Mon Feb 07, 2022 9:45 pm
I'm gonna do something that's probably against forum rules... but whatever.

I used Google book search to get to that page of the book but the table was not displayed on it.

The above 3 posts are pictures of every page from the investing chapter in Dalio's new book.

I had to reduce the image quality to make the loading times more palatable.

Do let me know if the quality is too low now though.

Thanks!

Likewise. Thanks!

Smith1776 wrote: ↑Mon Feb 07, 2022 11:29 pm
The above 3 posts are pictures of every page from the investing chapter in Dalio's new book.

Thanks for doing that!

What is all's reaction to this?



Agree on these four determinants? If so ... how does the Permanent Portfolio meet them?

Finally ..... wonder when his book on investing is going to come out!

It was bugging me, so I reuploaded at higher resolution.

yankees60 wrote: ↑Tue Feb 08, 2022 10:01 am

Smith1776 wrote: ↑Mon Feb 07, 2022 11:29 pm The above 3 posts are pictures of every page from the investing chapter in Dalio's new book.

Thanks for doing that!

What is all's reaction to this?

Capture.JPG

Agree on these four determinants? If so ... how does the Permanent Portfolio meet them?

Finally ..... wonder when his book on investing is going to come out!

Me too!! I've been waiting for the investing book to come out for SOOOOOO long. He's been promising it for a few years now!

I agree on the four determinants, but since risk premiums are implied within discount rates, it kind of feels redundant to include both. Discount rates as a factor, it seems to me, should supersede risk premiums.

yankees60 wrote: ↑Tue Feb 08, 2022 10:01 am

Smith1776 wrote: ↑Mon Feb 07, 2022 11:29 pm The above 3 posts are pictures of every page from the investing chapter in Dalio's new book.

Thanks for doing that!

What is all's reaction to this?

Capture.JPG

Agree on these four determinants? If so ... how does the Permanent Portfolio meet them?

Finally ..... wonder when his book on investing is going to come out!

So Risk Premiums. Does he mean the average market returns? And for discount rate, does he mean Fed Funds Rates?

yankees60 wrote: ↑Tue Feb 08, 2022 10:01 am
Agree on these four determinants? If so ... how does the Permanent Portfolio meet them?

Finally ..... wonder when his book on investing is going to come out!

Pensioncraft over on Youtube did a review.
Here is a screenshot I keep for reference (Blue text is mine)

Edit: Not sure what is going on with Dalio&PP file. Says it has been uploaded and can see it when you click on the title.

Hal wrote: ↑Tue Feb 08, 2022 2:34 pm

yankees60 wrote: ↑Tue Feb 08, 2022 10:01 am
Agree on these four determinants? If so ... how does the Permanent Portfolio meet them?

Finally ..... wonder when his book on investing is going to come out!

Pensioncraft over on Youtube did a review.
Here is a screenshot I keep for reference (Blue text is mine)

Edit: Not sure what is going on with Dalio&PP file. Says it has been uploaded and can see it when you click on the title.

Can you put the pensioncraft link in this thread?

And I dont think Dalio has acknowledged Browne's influence.

Would still like his book as an mp3 tho

ppnewbie wrote: ↑Tue Feb 08, 2022 9:30 pm

Hal wrote: ↑Tue Feb 08, 2022 2:34 pm

yankees60 wrote: ↑Tue Feb 08, 2022 10:01 am
Agree on these four determinants? If so ... how does the Permanent Portfolio meet them?

Finally ..... wonder when his book on investing is going to come out!

Pensioncraft over on Youtube did a review.
Here is a screenshot I keep for reference (Blue text is mine)

Edit: Not sure what is going on with Dalio&PP file. Says it has been uploaded and can see it when you click on the title.

Can you put the pensioncraft link in this thread?

Done https://www.youtube.com/channel/UC9OIwU ... xj7s1P5XGw

Edit: And wait, there's more! https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=5T-rc90MGBE

A global macro investor: that's how Dalio describes himself. As a risk parity/PP type of investor I definitely identify with that approach as well.

Which is funny because I started out as a Ben Grahamian disciple looking at individual stock issues.

Smith1776 wrote: ↑Wed Feb 09, 2022 5:36 pm A global macro investor: that's how Dalio describes himself. As a risk parity/PP type of investor I definitely identify with that approach as well.

Which is funny because I started out as a Ben Grahamian disciple looking at individual stock issues.

I started the same way. Thats why my taxable account is 95% stocks. I moved the retirement account to the the Tech spiced GB. I think i am going to back into something more defensive with the taxable. Sell some losers and increase the physical gold holdings.

Now that I'm head of a household, I've got fairly substantial net worth riding on Browne and Dalio's ideas (and Tyler's).

Risk parity, don't let me down!

I think I found a new PP. Only I think it takes a genius to run it. It’s basically Universa Investments and only requires a minimum 50 million investment - which is supposed to be less than 5 percent of your net worth.

I would recommend watching some of Mark Spitznagel’s interviews on YouTube - the one from the SALT conference is good. He basically laments all the stuff we talk about. His solution is to dedicate a tiny slice of your portfolio to something that explodes 40x during a crash (his fund). That way the tiny allocation is not a massive drag on your portfolio during good times. You can go all in on stocks.

I need to figure this out - for the next go around because I don’t think there is anyway I can even come close before the next crash.

Incidentally there is an emergency fed meeting on Monday - I bet they raise then and then it’s going to be a blood bath.

mathjak107 wrote: ↑Thu Jan 06, 2022 6:10 pm For the most part I don’t go by portfolio performance looking at charts and pictures of the past .

You know the saying what have you done for me lately ? It’s all that counts ….things have changed in the investment world and the old guard may be a thing of the past

What I meant is that only our own timeframes we are in matter ….

Each day going forward is what matters to me ……it doesn’t matter what something may have done in the past as times change and the world changes….

Each day matters …but days eventually turn in to months and months into years…

My entire draw for next year will be determined on 12/31 based on portfolio values ….so where we are going forward matters

Take Gold and the PP and bury them both.
Useless as always.