MachineGhost wrote:
decades of debasement "baked into the cake" suddenly bursting forth in less than a decade in the 70's. So say the dollar after depegging lost exactly 90% at the final peak in 1980; so extrapolate the loss back to 1933 and it'll more or less be the average debasement of the dollar per year: 1.37%. Zzzzzzzz.
If you start at $20 an ounce in 1933 you actually need an average annual price increase of 8.6% per year to get to the 1980 high, not 1.37%.
As always please anyone check my math.
To get to today's price of $1,250 it's about 5.25% and the 2011 high would have needed an even 6%, since 1933. Are those numbers such a snore?
I think it can be safely argued that our current socialist state is more likely to produce higher inlfation, WWII notwithstanding.
[quote=May 23, 2014]...the World Gold Council warns that demand in China, the world's biggest buyer of gold, is waning. An association of Hong Kong jewelers reported last week that gold purchases in China are off 30% from last year.[/quote]
"All generous minds have a horror of what are commonly called 'Facts'. They are the brute beasts of the intellectual domain." -- Thomas Hobbes
Disclaimer: I am not a broker, dealer, investment advisor, physician, theologian or prophet. I should not be considered as legally permitted to render such advice!
Every time metals have their CME margin decreased the price collapses, I can remember this happening at least 3 times in last few years. Anyone know these dates off the top of their head? I want to see what gold did in following days/weeks after those similar events.
Most folks can't believe in an asset class that producded -.86 CAGR from Jan. 1980 thru Jan. 2004 or DEAD money for 24 years. Gets real heavy to carry when 3 year old treasuries had a CAGR of + 7.94%.
So you're going to pick the Jan 1980 peak, and stop at 2004. Seems like someone is trying to manipulate their end result.
Pretty sure I can pick appropriate timeframes for any asset and make them look very good or very bad.
Mike
Try picking a major asset class for 24 years and leave out 1932. My point is not to manipulate the results only: "That most folks can't say with anything for 24 years"
jco wrote:
Every time metals have their CME margin decreased the price collapses, I can remember this happening at least 3 times in last few years. Anyone know these dates off the top of their head? I want to see what gold did in following days/weeks after those similar events.
Am I missing something? If the margin decreases, then doesn't that mean speculators can buy more?
jco wrote:
Every time metals have their CME margin decreased the price collapses, I can remember this happening at least 3 times in last few years. Anyone know these dates off the top of their head? I want to see what gold did in following days/weeks after those similar events.
Am I missing something? If the margin decreases, then doesn't that mean speculators can buy more?
No, speculators can borrow less as their leverage has decreased.
"The first principle is that you must not fool yourself and you are the easiest person to fool" --Feynman.
jco wrote:
Every time metals have their CME margin decreased the price collapses, I can remember this happening at least 3 times in last few years. Anyone know these dates off the top of their head? I want to see what gold did in following days/weeks after those similar events.
Am I missing something? If the margin decreases, then doesn't that mean speculators can buy more?
No, speculators can borrow less as their leverage has decreased.
Budd - I think you have this backwards. Decreasing the margin amount increases the allowable leverage. Increasing the margin amount reduces it.
In the past, I'm pretty sure there have been gold price hits when the margin was increased (increasing the margin creates an immediate margin call for anyone holding contracts with the minimum margin amount). I agree with dragoncar that it doesn't seem like decreasing the margin amount should negatively impact the price.
In the past, I'm pretty sure there have been gold price hits when the margin was increased (increasing the margin creates an immediate margin call for anyone holding contracts with the minimum margin amount). I agree with dragoncar that it doesn't seem like decreasing the margin amount should negatively impact the price.
Correct. Decreasing margin requirements allows the investor to control the same number of contracts with less capital. I was mislead by the previous post. Did the CME raise margin requirements?
Last edited by buddtholomew on Mon Jul 14, 2014 7:00 pm, edited 1 time in total.
"The first principle is that you must not fool yourself and you are the easiest person to fool" --Feynman.
Theoretically, yes - but the gold price seems to act fairly strangely fairly often. Almost as if there were very powerful forces with unlimited amounts of money, like, I don't know, maybe central banks or something, keeping the price down.
Theoretically, yes - but the gold price seems to act fairly strangely fairly often. Almost as if there were very powerful forces with unlimited amounts of money, like, I don't know, maybe central banks or something, keeping the price down.
Especially when one of those central banks is having its head speak shortly.
I'm sure that's just a coincidence, like all the other times a similar unexplained event occurred.
