peak oil

[MachineGhost]

Well, I also wouldn't underestimate the process by which ideas and talk translate themselves into action. Christianity was just a bunch of guys sitting around talking about ideas of God, but it has become one of the most influential forces of the last 2000 years.

It wasn't just a bunch of guys.  There were thousands of Messianic myths floating around and hundreds of different cults at the time of the alleged historical Jesus.  They all crystalized into a single composite represented by "Christianity".  Its not as if the Jews or Arabs ever bought into it.  The Romans are the ones that caved in, incorporating it into their political power structure and the rest is history.  But sometimes, ideas are a time which have come.  The message of tolerance and forgiveness in the face of cruel and harsh brutality is going to eventually work to arouse the rabble regardless of ideology.

[Mountaineer]

Well, I also wouldn't underestimate the process by which ideas and talk translate themselves into action. Christianity was just a bunch of guys sitting around talking about ideas of God, but it has become one of the most influential forces of the last 2000 years.

It wasn't just a bunch of guys.  There were thousands of Messianic myths floating around and hundreds of different cults at the time of the alleged historical Jesus.  They all crystalized into a single composite represented by "Christianity".  Its not as if the Jews or Arabs ever bought into it.  The Romans are the ones that caved in, incorporating it into their political power structure and the rest is history.  But sometimes, ideas are a time which have come.  The message of tolerance and forgiveness in the face of cruel and harsh brutality is going to eventually work to arouse the rabble regardless of ideology.

You guys sound like you have an absolute proven source of facts and truth about this interpretation of history (or are you just placing your trust in rationalism as a belief system?).  You better hope you are correct!  I'm curious if you have a crystal ball that proves what events will be two thousand years into the future that is just as certain?  Or, should I go to my local hedge fund manager?  JK

On a side note, be very cautious about things that end in  "ism".    Many can lead one astray.  http://phrontistery.info/isms.html

... Mountaineer

[doodle]

Just another article....huge cut to shale estimates: http://www.cnbc.com/id/101692873

[doodle]

Another interesting chart:

[img width=825 height=825]http://gailtheactuary.files.wordpress.c ... uction.png[/img]

[moda0306]

Well, I also wouldn't underestimate the process by which ideas and talk translate themselves into action. Christianity was just a bunch of guys sitting around talking about ideas of God, but it has become one of the most influential forces of the last 2000 years.

It wasn't just a bunch of guys.  There were thousands of Messianic myths floating around and hundreds of different cults at the time of the alleged historical Jesus.  They all crystalized into a single composite represented by "Christianity".  Its not as if the Jews or Arabs ever bought into it.  The Romans are the ones that caved in, incorporating it into their political power structure and the rest is history.  But sometimes, ideas are a time which have come.  The message of tolerance and forgiveness in the face of cruel and harsh brutality is going to eventually work to arouse the rabble regardless of ideology.

You guys sound like you have an absolute proven source of facts and truth about this interpretation of history (or are you just placing your trust in rationalism as a belief system?).  You better hope you are correct!  I'm curious if you have a crystal ball that proves what events will be two thousand years into the future that is just as certain?  Or, should I go to my local hedge fund manager?  JK

On a side note, be very cautious about things that end in  "ism".    Many can lead one astray.  http://phrontistery.info/isms.html

... Mountaineer

Wow Mountaineer... there's some observation/advice there that is very appropriate... and following this advice would probably lead to a lot of Christians questioning either their faith, or their church's interpretation of "what God wants of us."

[Mountaineer]

It wasn't just a bunch of guys.  There were thousands of Messianic myths floating around and hundreds of different cults at the time of the alleged historical Jesus.  They all crystalized into a single composite represented by "Christianity".  Its not as if the Jews or Arabs ever bought into it.  The Romans are the ones that caved in, incorporating it into their political power structure and the rest is history.  But sometimes, ideas are a time which have come.  The message of tolerance and forgiveness in the face of cruel and harsh brutality is going to eventually work to arouse the rabble regardless of ideology.

You guys sound like you have an absolute proven source of facts and truth about this interpretation of history (or are you just placing your trust in rationalism as a belief system?).  You better hope you are correct!  I'm curious if you have a crystal ball that proves what events will be two thousand years into the future that is just as certain?  Or, should I go to my local hedge fund manager?  JK

On a side note, be very cautious about things that end in  "ism".    Many can lead one astray.  http://phrontistery.info/isms.html

... Mountaineer

Wow Mountaineer... there's some observation/advice there that is very appropriate... and following this advice would probably lead to a lot of Christians questioning either their faith, or their church's interpretation of "what God wants of us."

Yep!  Communism, Marxism, Rationalism, Buddhism, Mohhamedanism, Hinduism, Atheism, Judaism, Agnosticism, Nihilism, Decisionism, "I want to be in charge-ism", "I am my own god-ism", and the beat goes on ....... 

.... Mountaineer

[doodle]

You guys sound like you have an absolute proven source of facts and truth about this interpretation of history (or are you just placing your trust in rationalism as a belief system?).  You better hope you are correct!  I'm curious if you have a crystal ball that proves what events will be two thousand years into the future that is just as certain?  Or, should I go to my local hedge fund manager?  JK

On a side note, be very cautious about things that end in  "ism".    Many can lead one astray.  http://phrontistery.info/isms.html

... Mountaineer

Wow Mountaineer... there's some observation/advice there that is very appropriate... and following this advice would probably lead to a lot of Christians questioning either their faith, or their church's interpretation of "what God wants of us."

Yep!  Communism, Marxism, Rationalism, Buddhism, Mohhamedanism, Hinduism, Atheism, Judaism, Agnosticism, Nihilism, Decisionism, "I want to be in charge-ism", "I am my own god-ism", and the beat goes on ....... 

.... Mountaineer

Funny how you conveniently left out "Christianism"

[Pointedstick]

Funny how you conveniently left out "Christianism"

I don't think I've ever seen that term used outside of smug liberal circles, where it is a derogatory term. Doesn't quit seem to fit.

[doodle]

Funny how you conveniently left out "Christianism"

I don't think I've ever seen that term used outside of smug liberal circles, where it is a derogatory term. Doesn't quit seem to fit.

Maybe that's cause English speaking Christians don't want to deal with the fact that their dogma, ideology, tenets etc. etc. belong in the same category as all the rest of the -isms.

I don't see any derogatory reference in the dictionary: http://www.merriam-webster.com/dictionary/christianism

[MediumTex]

Funny how you conveniently left out "Christianism"

I don't think I've ever seen that term used outside of smug liberal circles, where it is a derogatory term. Doesn't quit seem to fit.

People like you are describing really bother me.  It's like they get a kick out of making fun of sincerely held beliefs that are deeply meaningful to other people.

If these smug liberals were anthropologists, they would stroll into the village like James Spader in Pretty in Pink and say: "Can someone please tell these women that I talked to the volcano god, and he thinks that those bones they wear in their hair look really tacky."

[doodle]

People like you are describing really bother me.  It's like they get a kick out of making fun of sincerely held beliefs that are deeply meaningful to other people.

In one sense I understand what you are saying. I don't think I would walk into a church ceremony and tell people they are nuts to believe in all this stuff. But sheesh, can't you see the irony in what you are saying? I mean, how did the Christians make the polytheistic pagans or animists feel with all their talk of only one God? The bible is full of stories of smashing idols and punishing the unfaithful....I think we all have the right to freely express ourselves and if your faith is so weak that my criticism of it bothers you, the maybe you should follow Nietzsches advice when he said "whatever is shaky, push it over"

You mentioned. Thomas Paines age of reason in another thread, would that qualify as a smug liberal book which makes fun of peoples sincerely held beliefs?

[doodle]

And this thread was supposed to be about peak oil and somehow it too has gotten wrapped up in religion like all the other threads lately 

[Mountaineer]

And this thread was supposed to be about peak oil and somehow it too has gotten wrapped up in religion like all the other threads lately 

Hmmm, somehow we morph into talking about the ultimate reality (maybe it is built into us).  All the rest is mere stuff and fluff, or fluff and stuff it you see it from another perspective. 

... Mountaineer

[moda0306]

Funny how you conveniently left out "Christianism"

I don't think I've ever seen that term used outside of smug liberal circles, where it is a derogatory term. Doesn't quit seem to fit.

I've never heard the term.  I think doodle just re-worded to point out that it was conveniently left out of "fixed ideas to avoid or be very careful to adopt."

[Pointedstick]

Funny how you conveniently left out "Christianism"

I don't think I've ever seen that term used outside of smug liberal circles, where it is a derogatory term. Doesn't quit seem to fit.

I've never heard the term.  I think doodle just re-worded to point out that it was conveniently left out of "fixed ideas to avoid or be very careful to adopt."

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Christianism

In recent years, Christianism (or Christianist) has also been used as a descriptive term of Christian political conservatives mostly in the United States, for the ideology of the Christian right, meant as a counterpoint to "Islamism".[2][3] Writing in 2005, the New York Times language columnist William Safire attributed the term (in its modern usage) to blogger Andrew Sullivan, who wrote on June 1, 2003:[2]

I have a new term for those on the fringes of the religious right who have used the Gospels to perpetuate their own aspirations for power, control and oppression: Christianists. They are as anathema to true Christians as the Islamists are to true Islam.

The bloggers Tristero and David Neiwert used the term shortly after.[4][5] Sullivan later expanded on his usage of the term in a Time magazine column.[6] Uses of the term can be found dating back to the seventeenth century, but these are unrelated to its modern meaning.[2]

[moda0306]

PS,

This quote...

I have a new term for those on the fringes of the religious right who have used the Gospels to perpetuate their own aspirations for power, control and oppression: Christianists. They are as anathema to true Christians as the Islamists are to true Islam.

... certainly is not smug.  At least not in any way unique to political article commentary on certain distasteful views by almost EVERYONE who actually writes about politics, including you and I.

Perhaps you've heard it used in more loose ways towards good Christians that don't use their religion for power, control and oppression... which is certainly condescending and smug.

But if someone said this:

I have a new term for those on the fringes of the Muslim faith who have used the Koran to perpetuate their own aspirations for power, control and oppression: Islamists. They are as anathema to true Islam as the crony capitalists are to true Capitalism.

That is perhaps one of the most balanced statements one could make that still has the appearance of political edge, and very, very few would refer to it as "smug."

[Mountaineer]

But if someone said this:

I have a new term for those on the fringes of the Muslim faith who have used the Koran to perpetuate their own aspirations for power, control and oppression: Islamists. They are as anathema to true Islam as the crony capitalists are to true Capitalism.

That is perhaps one of the most balanced statements one could make that still has the appearance of political edge, and very, very few would refer to it as "smug."

Or, they could just be flapping their "gums" backwards. 

... Mountaineer

[MachineGhost]

Just another article....huge cut to shale estimates: http://www.cnbc.com/id/101692873

This is about CA which isn't even a major player.  Zzzzz.

[MachineGhost]

Yep!  Communism, Marxism, Rationalism, Buddhism, Mohhamedanism, Hinduism, Atheism, Judaism, Agnosticism, Nihilism, Decisionism, "I want to be in charge-ism", "I am my own god-ism", and the beat goes on ....... 

Archeology doesn't end in "ism"??  I'm was only quoting the historical evidence.  You may not like it because it conflicts with your religious Jesus.  Now, I'm hardly one of those Objectivist whackjobs who think only objective physical reality is the only valid form evidence, but science does have a way of dispelling mysticism and mythology.

[MachineGhost]

And this thread was supposed to be about peak oil and somehow it too has gotten wrapped up in religion like all the other threads lately 

You started it!!!

I just finished watching the Blu-Ray restored edition of Lawrence of Arabia.  Oddly, it did not seem as epic or as bright as the very first time I saw it on VHS or DVD.  But it's still an engrossing movie to see a small slice of how all the nomadic tribes came together as Arabs (and eventually Saudi Arabia).  Wasn't all that much religion in it, oddly.

[MachineGhost]

I finally got around to reading about the Monterey shale oil estimate reduction.  The EIA slashed its recovery estimates by a whopping 97%, but also America's as a whole by 66% because Monterey is such a huge undeveloped shale oil deposit.  Recovery being the operative word here, not resource.  The core problem is the San Andreas fault has fractured it into a complex mess instead of a simple big zone like the Bakken or Eagle Ford.

[MachineGhost]

Some recent stats:

In 2015, oil production will likely reach 10 million barrels.  That will likely double to 20 million in 7-10 years.  Historically, it took 10 years to first double (500K to 1m), 7 years to next double (1m to 2m), 14 years to next double (2m to 4m), 26 years to next double (4m to 8m) with "U.S. Peak Oil" at 9.6 million in 1970.  So it will have taken 52-55 years for the next doubling.

In 2004, the U.S. exported 3 quadrillion BTUs of "high value" energy (natural gas, crude, petroloeum products).  By 2010, it doubled to 6 quadrillion BTUs.  This year, it is 9 quadrillion BTUs.

In July, the U.S. exported 400,000 barrels of oil, the highest in 57 years.

I got stopped out of FRAK during the recent correction, but believe you me I am getting back onboard when it is time.

Also the voters in Santa Barbara, CA recently said NO! to shale oil drilling, so the Monterey Shale is toastholio... for now.

[sixdollars]

As a former peak oil hand wringer, I have sort of come to see most doomer porn narratives as being the equivalent of going to horror movies without realizing that they aren't real, and not understanding that they are only intended for entertainment.

Hey MT,

Just wanted to figure out what your overall position is on Peak Oil now.

Reading through some of your older posts, it seems like you were saying that Peak Oil was likely to have bigger repercussions than most people would expect or might otherwise anticipate.  Have you changed your view on this, and if so, what did you come across that changed your mind or way of thinking? ... is it more that you just don't think it's worth your time worrying about anymore because you can't predict the timing and the uneasiness was taking away from your quality of life..?

I find following Peak Cheap Oil interesting because it seems like it helps me make better sense of the way the world operates and what we might be headed towards.  Some peak oil bloggers and figures out there definitely seem to be throwing around doomsday level predictions... but I think, like everything else, there is noise that you have to learn to filter out.  I think the truth is that it won't be the end, but it probably won't be rainbows and unicorns either... I guess, as usual, the truth always seems to lie somewhere in the middle of the extremes.  I'm not sure what to make of Peak Oil at the moment, but it's definitely one of those big ideas I enjoy discussing.. 

[MediumTex]

As a former peak oil hand wringer, I have sort of come to see most doomer porn narratives as being the equivalent of going to horror movies without realizing that they aren't real, and not understanding that they are only intended for entertainment.

Hey MT,

Just wanted to figure out what your overall position is on Peak Oil now.

Reading through some of your older posts, it seems like you were saying that Peak Oil was likely to have bigger repercussions than most people would expect or might otherwise anticipate.  Have you changed your view on this, and if so, what did you come across that changed your mind or way of thinking? ... is it more that you just don't think it's worth your time worrying about anymore because you can't predict the timing and the uneasiness was taking away from your quality of life..?

The shale boom has delayed everything by probably a decade, and has completely eclipsed the background forces at work.  The production profile of these shale oil projects is rapid increases in production followed by rapid declines.  The underlying longer term trends will re-emerge once the low hanging shale oil fruit has been picked.

[ochotona]

Shale oil was a bubble funded by ZIRP. It did physically push a lot of oil into the market, but for which the full-cycle economics are unprofitable. Now we are unwinding that dump of unprofitable oil. After it goes, and because reservoirs quietly deplete every day, and because people keep having kids and wanting stuff, demand and supply will balance again. People are going to think twice before underwriting junk bonds for fracing, at least for a few years. I think we will see talk of Peak Oil again someday. I am hoping I get a few more bright and cheerful years in this oil and gas business before I retire. The next 0-3 years are going to be awful. About 30% of surveyed geologists in the oil patch are out of work. It seems like half of my friends are out of work. Of course, I was dumped out on my a$$ last year. I hope I can keep this job; otherwise, I'll have to leave this industry, and possibly this city, which I've called home for 31 years.