Amazon.com: Making their workforce disappear

[Gumby]

I'm putting this in the Variable Portfolio discussion since it pertains to a single company.

On 60 Minutes this weekend, Jeff Bezos was interviewed and he unveiled a concept called "Amazon PrimeAir"

See: Amazon PrimeAir (Video)

It's pretty incredible — both a good and bad way — when you grasp what it means for our society. In the not too distant future, you'll be able to buy a product from Amazon.com and have it appear on your doorstep thanks to a delivery drone, within 30 minutes — without any human involvement from purchase to delivery. And no more need for UPS/FedEx for most deliveries.

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I can't even imagine how many jobs this will kill — including totally eliminating the need to go to any local store. I suspect in a decade or two, the only people working at Amazon will be executives and engineers. Robots will do all the heavy lifting, inventories and deliveries.

People have often wondered how Amazon will eventually turn a profit. I imagine the robots eliminating most of the workforce is how they will get there.

[dualstow]

When I first saw the headline last week, I was sure it was an Onion piece. And then I read on.

Amazon won't just be wiping out Amazon jobs, but also those of FedEx and UPS. *If* these drones ever get approved.

Terrorists will deliver bombs to certain destinations in devices painted to look like Amazon drones.
Israelis will deliver bombs to terrorists.

The first lawsuit involving a drone falling on a person will make the scalding cup of McCafe look quaint.

Some small kid will make the news for catching a ride with a drone.

Jeff Bezos is actually a robot.

[smurff]

There have been a couple of drone crashes in NYC in the past few months, mostly into skyscrapers while being operated by amateurs. I remember pieces rained onto the street, just missing pedestrians on the street in one case.  So leave it to the droners; they'll destroy their own equipment and industry without members of the public resorting to the 12-gauge.  

[LC475]

Cool!  I actually had this idea (wrote it up as a business plan for a college class in entrepreneurship and everything) some years ago.  Autonomous Flying Vehicle Delivery Service or some such, I called it.  This was before drones were really "a thing."  I was going to use mini-blimps, not quadcopters.

Seriously, guys, it only makes sense to do it this way.  As society our becomes more prosperous (assuming it does!) and thus human labor becomes more valuable, this will surely become the dominant method of delivery. 

[Benko]

Seriously?

They will probably perfect  teleportation about the time these are ready to go.  Seems about as likely as perfecting a drone that does not screw up, injure things or people and goes where wanted. 

[Gumby]

Seriously?

They will probably perfect  teleportation about the time these are ready to go.  Seems about as likely as perfecting a drone that does not screw up, injure things or people and goes where wanted.

. Well, these drones are almost ready to go — they are scheduled for launch between 2 to 7 years from now. Not aware of any working teleportation devices at the moment. I'm sure there will be problems with the drones, but let's not forget that all emerging technology — including cars, airplanes boats, cell phones, etc. — have had bugs. And many technologies continue to have bugs to this day, and probably always will. Bugs are just a part of technology — and are often parodied in science fiction novels/movies, such as for occasional moments of comic relief in Star Wars, as just one example.

These drones will likely be commonplace in a decade or two — despite their bugs and obvious shortcomings. I imagine you'll order a pizza from Domino's, and the pizza will land on your doorstep minutes after the pizza comes out of the oven. So, this isn't just an Amazon thing. It's just where the future is going.

Keep in mind that technology advances more quickly than we realize. Do you remember the AT&T "You Will" commercials, narrated by Tom Selleck?

YouTube: AT&T 1993-1994 'You Will' Ad Campaign Compilation - All 7 Ads

At the time everything in those commercials seemed like science fiction.

— Being able to borrow a book from a library that's thousands of miles away.
— Cross the country, without stopping for directions (using GPS).
— Sending a "Fax" from the beach
— Attended a meeting from a remote destination
— Bought concert tickets from a computer
— Watched the movie you wanted to when you wanted to (On Demand)
— Tucked your baby in from a video phone
— Attended a class from your home
— Renewed a driver's license from a computer
— Fixed your car with the help of a remote expert's guidance
— Checked your home's security system remotely
— Had a virtual assistant in your computer (Siri)
— Translate a message from a foreigner in real time
— Received a doctor's diagnosis via a computer video chat/uplink (not to mention remote surgeries)
— Paying a toll without slowing down

But, now, these technologies seem commonplace and quaint. They are practically considered unimaginative ideas now despite the fact that they once seemed far fetched in our lifetimes.

(AT&T was giving the impression they would "bring" those technologies to us — I guess via their communication lines and cell towers.)

[dualstow]

I think Google's self-driving cars have a better shot at taking over package delivery in the near future. You could combine that with an Amazon Locker in the body of the truck so that recipients only open compartments meant for them.

Google, er, search for  "Google Droids" and you'll see they're working on it.

I like the drones even better, though.

Edit: not sure how "Google Droids" vanished from my post. Probably a stray keystroke.

[Benko]

"Well, these drones are almost ready to go — they are scheduled for launch between 2 to 7 years from now."

so about the time the Obamacare web is finally ready?  Seriously how can you type the words "almost ready to go" followed by the words 2-7 years? That probably means 10-15.

"let's not forget that all emerging technology — including cars, airplanes boats, cell phones, etc. — have had bugs."

True, but most emerging technology does not have the potential to kill people not to mention destroy itself by running into things if it does not work just right.  And then there is the issue of whether congress will allow it (see news this past week) not to mention individual communities.

"I'm thinking a 12 guage would bring one of these things down quite handily.  Think about the hours of fun these would provide in rural areas."

There you go.  The unemployed can host drone races and shoot the drone.  Love it.

[Reub]

I'm not sure if these drones have been approved for operation by the FAA. That could be an issue, unless the FAA could extract some significant revenue from it

[Gumby]

"Well, these drones are almost ready to go — they are scheduled for launch between 2 to 7 years from now."

so about the time the Obamacare web is finally ready?  Seriously how can you type the words "almost ready to go" followed by the words 2-7 years? That probably means 10-15.

Ummm... Not sure if you noticed, but their drones already deliver boxes to easy destinations quite well in test flights. So, yeah.. I can type the words "almost ready to go". The redundancies and countermeasures need to be perfected. So, they are less than a decade from perfecting it. (Not sure what you think "Obamacare" has to do with it, but somehow you managed to politicize package delivery!).

What's up with all the negativity anyway?

"let's not forget that all emerging technology — including cars, airplanes boats, cell phones, etc. — have had bugs."

True, but most emerging technology does not have the potential to kill people not to mention destroy itself by running into things if it does not work just right.  And then there is the issue of whether congress will allow it (see news this past week) not to mention individual communities.

Regulations could certainly kill it. Regulations are probably the biggest hurdle. And I'm sure these things will hurt a few people. Helicopters, airplanes, automobiles and delivery trucks have all hurt plenty of civilians on the ground and yet they haven't been banned for some reason. Go figure. Nevertheless, many redundancies are already built in — such as the ability to maintain course/altitude, and perform safe landings in the event of a rotor failure or a communications failure. Obviously more redundancies need to be added and perfected.

The thing is, recreational drones already work quite well. Have you ever used one? (I'm guessing no). I've used one that was controlled by an iOS app and it works surprisingly well. The drone even knows how to safely land itself if the app fails or if it gets out of range. I get the feeling like you aren't aware of how advanced the recreational drones already are — let alone the professional ones.

[Xan]

[Gumby]

I'm not sure if these drones have been approved for operation by the FAA. That could be an issue, unless the FAA could extract some significant revenue from it

The FAA will rule on their legality in 2015, so they can't become a reality until at least then. Bezos admits that would be very optimistic, but not impossible. 5 to 7 years from now is considered to be more realistic.

Indeed as Bezos acknowledged, the Federal Aviation Administration has yet to even write the rules on how unmanned aircraft could be used for commercial use. But by announcing plans to use the aircraft, Amazon likely hopes it will play a significant role in the discussions regarding the new rules. This is after all the company that managed to convince the United States Postal Service to deliver packages on Sundays.

The FAA just unveiled its roadmap for unmanned aircraft integration into the national airspace last month...The FAA outlined a plan that would start with the “accomodation”? of existing drones on a limited, case-by-case basis as they are today. These would likely include law enforcement and national security use, as well as use in less populated areas...

...There is no technical reason drones couldn’t be used to deliver packages. Amazon says it is looking at using the octocopters to deliver packages of five pounds or less within a 10 mile radius of a fulfillment center. That distance and payload might be a bit optimistic for the average consumer type quad- or octocopter, but it’s simply a matter of using the right size vehicle to get that kind of performance. And there’s no doubt that by the time 2015 rolls around and the FAA begins to provide the regulations for unmanned aircraft, the technology and capabilities will have developed much further than what Bezos showed off in the video.

Some weary of the use of unmanned aircraft have already pledged to shoot them down. It’s less likely somebody would haul out a shotgun in an urban area to shoot down an Amazon delivery. But there are more subtle ways to take down a small electric octocotper, including nets, even “mist nets”?–virtually invisible nets used to catch or control birds–that would allow everybody from protesters to simple thieves to stop a delivery. And of course there is probably a hacker or two who would like to tackle the problem.

Source: http://www.wired.com/autopia/2013/12/am ... -delivery/

They won't be perfect, but they will become a reality in our lifetime.

I suspect that these concept drones they are showing now will look like a joke to the drones of the not-too-distant future — much like those ridiculous cell phones from the 1980s. Drone technology is still in its infancy.

[Gumby]

Turns out delivery drones are already a reality in China...

Here's a video of a drone delivery service for a bakery in downtown Shanghai.

http://youtu.be/fXwgwSkujOY

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Here's a news report for a China-based retailer, SF Express, that is testing drones for deliveries to remote areas:

http://news.carnoc.com/list/260/260523.html

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China will see more of these corporate drones in action before we will — likely in the next year or two since they only need to obtain a permit and clear their operations with local air traffic controllers (no FAA-type regulations needed).

[Benko]

Gumby,

Apologies if I came across as too negative, yesterday was bad day.

I'm simply picturing suburban neighborhoods I know where the houses are packed close together, where there are lots of trees, telephone poles, kids playing and animals. 

"Helicopters, airplanes, automobiles and delivery trucks have all hurt plenty of civilians on the ground "
So what.  Civilization will proceed quite well if a drone nevers enters a suburban neighborhood.  Point being, that this has to be made pretty safe or my personal view is that it should not be allowed anywhere near crowded suburbia.  OTOH this does sound like a really good way to assist delivery to rural areas, where there is much less danger of hurting anything (cows don't move rapidly).

And perhaps I am being overly concerned, perhaps the drones are perfectly safe if one runs into a little kid.

[Gumby]

Apologies if I came across as too negative, yesterday was bad day.

Totally understand. Happens to all of us!

I'm simply picturing suburban neighborhoods I know where the houses are packed close together, where there are lots of trees, telephone poles, kids playing and animals.

Agreed. I totally agree that those will probably disqualify those locations. I suspect people's properties will need to have certain qualifications and comply with certain guidelines — such as an open drop area.

should not be allowed anywhere near crowded suburbia.

Sounds about right. Helicopters used to be allowed to land on rooftops in Manhattan, and later they were banned after one fell off the Pan Am building. So, I imagine they will be banned in some cities.

OTOH this does sound like a really good way to assist delivery to rural areas, where there is much less danger of hurting anything (cows don't move rapidly).

I had the same thought. But, the drones only have a range of a 10-mile drop radius, and, Bezos implied that they would like to target higher population areas. Again, I agree with you that I don't see how it will work in a city or crowded suburbia.

And perhaps I am being overly concerned, perhaps the drones are perfectly safe if one runs into a little kid.

I think people need to take some responsibility for their own kids. A UPS track backs into people's driveways and there's all sorts of beeping and warning, etc. A UPS truck ran over a tiny dog on my street last year when it darted out into the street. It was terrible — and the driver felt awful. There are dangers everywhere. The drone will do the same thing — shout warnings — and probably have infrared cameras that recognize kids around in a yard and abort landings in such a situation.

I'll agree with you that there are logistical problems, but I do think these drones will become a reality in our lifetime whether they are perfect or not.

[smurff]

They might even have their own defenses onboard in case they encounter someone about to use them for target practice.  Imagine skeet shooting where the skeets shot back!

Even if someone managed to shoot them down, there would be actual images of who the shooter was and where to find them.  By the time they were ready to deploy in the USA, there would be so much rich detail--maybe even a DNA sniffer inside--that there would be no question of who shot.

[dualstow]

They might even have their own defenses onboard in case they encounter someone about to use them for target practice.  Imagine skeet shooting where the skeets shot back!

So that's what Obi Wan Kenobi was talking about when he mentioned the Droid Wars.

[Gumby]

They might even have their own defenses onboard in case they encounter someone about to use them for target practice.  Imagine skeet shooting where the skeets shot back!

Even if someone managed to shoot them down, there would be actual images of who the shooter was and where to find them.  By the time they were ready to deploy in the USA, there would be so much rich detail--maybe even a DNA sniffer inside--that there would be no question of who shot.

I believe the term is 'countermeasures'. Just guessing, but I think it's probably some kind of Federal offense to shoot down FAA-approved aircraft/drone. And I doubt people would try that very often in the urban areas they claim to be getting these ready for. But, I agree with Benko and I admit that I don't quite get the logistics of how these would work in an urban setting.

My guess is that these will only work with customers who have agreed to a waiver and can assure that they have a 30'x30' landing area that's unencumbered by branches, etc. I suppose that people who want 30-minute deliveries will do everything they can to make it work on their end — so they can have and maintain that convenience.

[smurff]

I believe the term is 'countermeasures'. Just guessing, but I think it's probably some kind of Federal offense to shoot down FAA-approved aircraft/drone. And I doubt people would try that very often in the urban areas they claim to be getting these ready for. But, I agree with Benko and I admit that I don't quite get the logistics of how these would work in an urban setting.

Having a law against doing something stupid won't stop people,especially teenagers (who don't usually follow the law) from doing it.  Especially when the target is so tempting, and has a name like "drone."  They might even make a competition out of it, with all props to whomever shoots down the most drones.

For some reason many people get off on shining a laser pointer airplanes traveling the night sky.  Totally a federal crime.  Pilots have gone blind, plane loads of passengers endangered, all because some fool wants to shake a light at the night sky.  I can see a drone with a package of electronic consumer goodies attached as a really tempting target for some people.

[Pointedstick]

Relevant:

http://www.cnn.com/2013/12/10/us/colora ... ?hpt=hp_t2

[Ad Orientem]

[yankees60]

Resurrecting an old one (from December 2013)!

First post was from Gumby providing an article about Amazon, in the future, providing delivery via drones.

Almost all subsequent posts expressed a fair amount of skepticism of it ever coming to fruition.

Decided to see where it is at six years later.

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Amazon_Prime_Air

"Amazon Prime Air is a drone delivery service currently in development by Amazon. It is expected to begin operations in select cities starting late 2019.[1]"

Tomorrow is absolutely the last day that could possibly meet the "late 2019" timeline cited above.

On a further search cannot tell if it is yet actually happening anywhere on a regular basis. But it does seem that, at some point, in the not too distant future, It WILL come to fruition.

Vinny

[Don]

Gumby was a great contributor. I hope he's doing well.

[rocketdog]

It's not the drones we need to fear... it's the nanobots:
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Prey_(novel)