PP investors--stay the course

[frugal]

c'mon

[ns2]

"I like to watch"

Many do but don't admit it.

For a long time I never watched my portfolio. I didn't even bother to open my 401k statements and this went on for years. Maybe kind of like not wanting to know whether you have cancer or not, or thinking a watched pot never boils. Not sure which. I figured I really didn't have much control over it any way so what was the point?

It all changed when I started the PP a few years ago. Now I am more tempted than I ever was before, I guess because it was a major act of taking charge of my portfolio and now I want to see how it is playing out. Also, has a lot to do with nearing retirement and asset preservation becoming much more important after the 2008 meltdown.

But I'm trying to go back to the way it was before. Haven't looked closely since the end of August and don't plan to again until late January when my planned yearly re-balancing check is scheduled to take place. 

[frugal]

"I like to watch"

Many do but don't admit it.

For a long time I never watched my portfolio. I didn't even bother to open my 401k statements and this went on for years. Maybe kind of like not wanting to know whether you have cancer or not, or thinking a watched pot never boils. Not sure which. I figured I really didn't have much control over it any way so what was the point?

It all changed when I started the PP a few years ago. Now I am more tempted than I ever was before, I guess because it was a major act of taking charge of my portfolio and now I want to see how it is playing out. Also, has a lot to do with nearing retirement and asset preservation becoming much more important after the 2008 meltdown.

But I'm trying to go back to the way it was before. Haven't looked closely since the end of August and don't plan to again until late January when my planned yearly re-balancing check is scheduled to take place.

neither in google finance you watch your PP during the year?

[frugal]

[portart]

I don't see PP going anywhere for a long time. Gold is getting sold on every run up, stocks aren't pulling it up much and when QE stops, it could take a major gold hit.

[Reub]

Most of the time, the exact opposite of what you think will happen actually happens.

[dualstow]

I don't see PP going anywhere for a long time. Gold is getting sold on every run up, stocks aren't pulling it up much and when QE stops, it could take a major gold hit.

Seems like just yesterday people were saying they didn't see stocks going anywhere for a long time.
It wasn't yesterday, but it wasn't long ago at all.

[buddtholomew]

Why do we continue to ignore the fact that 25% allocated to equities is insufficient to buoy the portfolio in times of prosperity? The answer is not to hold a speculative VP heavy in equities.

[flyingpylon]

Why do we continue to ignore the fact that 25% allocated to equities is insufficient to buoy the portfolio in times of prosperity? The answer is not to hold a speculative VP heavy in equities.

Wait... is this a time of prosperity?

[buddtholomew]

Why do we continue to ignore the fact that 25% allocated to equities is insufficient to buoy the portfolio in times of prosperity? The answer is not to hold a speculative VP heavy in equities.

Wait... is this a time of prosperity?

Nice job ignoring the question. A 30% YTD increase in equities is insufficient to offset declines in the other assets. That is a fact even if you believe the economy isn't improving.

[Pointedstick]

Nice job ignoring the question. A 30% YTD increase in equities is insufficient to offset declines in the other assets. That is a fact even if you believe the economy isn't improving.

I don't understand why you don't just liquidate your PP and move into a 60/40 portfolio or something. You will never be able to participate much in a stock rally with only 25% of your portfolio in stocks. If tracking equities better is a high priority for you, the PP is probably never going to cut it. If anything it's sort of an anti-prosperity portfolio.

[buddtholomew]

I reached the same conclusion and I agree with the comment that the PP is "anti-prosperity". My VP is equity heavy, but I wish the PP could stand on its own when equities are on rise.

[dualstow]

Why do we continue to ignore the fact that 25% allocated to equities is insufficient to buoy the portfolio in times of prosperity? The answer is not to hold a speculative VP heavy in equities.

It is for me. 50% of (vp+pp) is stocks. The rest of the vp is corp bonds & munis, mostly.
I don't know how the pp will turn out in the future. I love it as a core.

[buddtholomew]

Why cant the PP stand alone without a VP?

[Libertarian666]

Why cant the PP stand alone without a VP?

Just let us know when you have found a low-volatility portfolio that participates fully in an equity run-up. I'm sure many people would be interested in that.
Oh, and a unicorn too!

[Tyler]

My PP is standing alone just fine. I just have a different definition of independence.

[edsanville]

The HBPP has apparently yielded -4.01% over the past 12 months.  Unless a big rally comes up in the next 1.5 months, 2013 is going to be a down year for the HBPP.  It will be the 3rd or 4th down year since 1973, depending on how you measure it.

It sucks that my first full year invested in the HBPP was a down year.  It makes me feel like I have supernaturally terrible luck. 

But, on the other hand:  it's the 2nd or 3rd worst year since 1974 for the HBPP... and it was only down 4.01%!  That's pretty impressive, when you think about it.

Hopefully 2014 will be better.

[frugal]

The HBPP has apparently yielded -4.01% over the past 12 months.  Unless a big rally comes up in the next 1.5 months, 2013 is going to be a down year for the HBPP.  It will be the 3rd or 4th down year since 1973, depending on how you measure it.

It sucks that my first full year invested in the HBPP was a down year.  It makes me feel like I have supernaturally terrible luck. 

But, on the other hand:  it's the 2nd or 3rd worst year since 1974 for the HBPP... and it was only down 4.01%!  That's pretty impressive, when you think about it.

Hopefully 2014 will be better.

[dualstow]

...
It sucks that my first full year invested in the HBPP was a down year.  It makes me feel like I have supernaturally terrible luck. 

But, on the other hand:  it's the 2nd or 3rd worst year since 1974 for the HBPP... and it was only down 4.01%!  That's pretty impressive, when you think about it.

Hopefully 2014 will be better.

In a thread asking what it would take to make one abandon the pp, I think MT said it would have to go down 3 years in a row. Down how much, I don't know. I think I will adopt the same policy, although I certainly don't expect it to happen anytime soon.

Sure, stocks are flying high right now, but it will be nice to have bonds and gold when stocks inevitably plummet.

The question is, will my bonds and/or gold soar, or just come back up to breakeven? 

[rhymenocerous]

Personally, I'm happy that gold and LLTs are down this year.  Since I'm in my early accumulating years, I'm glad I have the opportunity to buy at lower prices.

[buddtholomew]

...
It sucks that my first full year invested in the HBPP was a down year.  It makes me feel like I have supernaturally terrible luck. 

But, on the other hand:  it's the 2nd or 3rd worst year since 1974 for the HBPP... and it was only down 4.01%!  That's pretty impressive, when you think about it.

Hopefully 2014 will be better.

In a thread asking what it would take to make one abandon the pp, I think MT said it would have to go down 3 years in a row. Down how much, I don't know. I think I will adopt the same policy, although I certainly don't expect it to happen anytime soon.

Sure, stocks are flying high right now, but it will be nice to have bonds and gold when stocks inevitably plummet.

The question is, will my bonds and/or gold soar, or just come back up to breakeven? 

I sincerely doubt that gold and bonds will soar in response to falling equity prices. I suspect gold declines and investors shun long-term treasuries as the current mindset is for yields to rise. This portfolio has seen its best days...

[Pointedstick]

This portfolio has seen its best days...

If you truly believe that, isn't getting out now the best course of action? Since you hate this portfolio and feel pessimistic about its future, why continue to torture yourself?

[buddtholomew]

This portfolio has seen its best days...

If you truly believe that, isn't getting out now the best course of action? Since you hate this portfolio and feel pessimistic about its future, why continue to torture yourself?

My sentiments exactly. In my own time, thank you.

[PP67]

According to Peak2Trough, for the last 12 months, the HBPP has return of -2.89%...and there have been several calls that the HBPP is doomed...

However, over the past 42 yrs when there apparently was nothing inherently wrong with the HBPP, there have been 120 periods (which were undoubtedly less or greater than 12 months) that had a drawdown over 3%...

Am I missing something here or can one surmise that the recent (last 12 months) performance of the HBPP is nothing to get too excited about?

If I had the programming prowess of Peak2Trough or many others on this forum, I would develop a program (like Peak2Trough) that you could put your start date and let it show you how your returns for that time period rank with similar time periods over the last 42 years...  That could be very enlightening...

[Xan]

I sincerely doubt that gold and bonds will soar in response to falling equity prices. I suspect gold declines and investors shun long-term treasuries as the current mindset is for yields to rise. This portfolio has seen its best days...

Where's the money going, then?  It just about has to be in gold, bonds, stocks, or cash.