S&P 500 Earnings History

[moda0306]

Is this site correct?

http://pages.stern.nyu.edu/~adamodar/Ne ... spearn.htm

This shows historical earnings yields on the S&P 500.  It (apparently) hasn't yielded double-digit earnings since 1984.  I checked a couple less handy sources and it appears about right.

Any body else surprised by the low yields?  I know I am.

[moda0306]

One thing to notice is the 1970's... while surely incurring negative real yield in some years, the performance of the S&P 500 in its ability to earn income during that period is quite amazing in relation to the 1980's compared to what one might expect.

[Gosso]

I normally look at the Robert Shiller data found HERE.  I believe that his site has an excel file as well, that contains more detailed info (click HERE, then click the hyperlink called "excel file")

Below are the inflation adjusted earnings for the S&P 500.

[craigr]

Companies can do OK under high inflation as long as they are allowed to raise prices (e.g. no price controls) and don't go broke due to bad money management. But I wouldn't expect them to turn in good profits. I'd expect them to more or less tread water. The inflation, if escalating, has a way of eating up all the real returns the stocks produce.

[moda0306]

I like the info from that site, but found the earnings to be too undigestible... Is that an actual $ amount of earnings per "share"?

[Gosso]

I like the info from that site, but found the earnings to be too undigestible... Is that an actual $ amount of earnings per "share"?

The chart shows the inflation adjusted earnings per share of the S&P 500 -- the website you linked to is not adjusted for inflation, but appears to be correct.  The excel file from Robert Shiller contains both inflation adjusted and non-adjusted.

The low current dividend yields are probably from Apple refusing to pay a dividend  ;)

[Ad Orientem]

I normally look at the Robert Shiller data found HERE.  I believe that his site has an excel file as well, that contains more detailed info (click HERE, then click the hyperlink called "excel file")

Below are the inflation adjusted earnings for the S&P 500.

Gosso
How does one get data for the S&P 500's returns back to the 1890's when it did not exist before 1957?  Even the S&P 90 was only introduced in the 1920's if my memory has not failed.

[Gosso]

Gosso
How does one get data for the S&P 500's returns back to the 1890's when it did not exist before 1957?  Even the S&P 90 was only introduced in the 1920's if my memory has not failed.

It seems he used other sources to fill in the gaps before 1957.  Not a perfect system, but it's good enough to give us an idea of how the S&P 500 would have looked before 1957.  It looks like you'll have to buy his book to get the exact sources.  He's an excerpt from his website:

This data set consists of monthly stock price, dividends, and earnings data and the consumer price index (to allow conversion to real values), all starting January 1871. The price, dividend, and earnings series are from the same sources as described in Chapter 26 of my earlier book (Market Volatility [Cambridge, MA: MIT Press, 1989]), although now I use monthly data, rather than annual data. Monthly dividend and earnings data are computed from the S&P four-quarter totals for the quarter since 1926, with linear interpolation to monthly figures. Dividend and earnings data before 1926 are from Cowles and associates (Common Stock Indexes, 2nd ed. [Bloomington, Ind.: Principia Press, 1939]), interpolated from annual data.