Tactical Asset Allocation + HBPP an intriguing combo
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Re: Tactical Asset Allocation + HBPP an intriguing combo
Lately I am sitting on a 13% drawdown from the portfolio peak in late 2021. Most of it was attributable to my Junior gold Miners which collapsed, and also Bitcoin. I sold the BTC at a very good profit, but still took a massive DD from the peak value. I'm happy with -13% overall, I'm beating the 60/40 and even the 40/60. I'm beating the HBPP I think, which really is my benchmark for downside, not the 60/40.
Hindsight is 20-20... I wish I had just allocated to gold, not miners. But I got greedy. Greed will get you. But I am holding. I'm glad I got rid of the BTC, it was semi-fun while it lasted. Maybe again if it just cliff-dives to $3,500 which Gareth Soloway is not ruling out as a possible target.
Right now I'm sitting almost 100% in auto-rolled 13 week T-Bills, waiting for momentum to come back to some sector, but prepared to sit. I still have physical gold, the Junior Gold Miners, I-Bonds. I'm enjoying having a temporary holiday from being invested, it's calming.
I am noticing the historic drawdown in the HBPP and Golden Butterfly, a good sign for new entrants.
Hindsight is 20-20... I wish I had just allocated to gold, not miners. But I got greedy. Greed will get you. But I am holding. I'm glad I got rid of the BTC, it was semi-fun while it lasted. Maybe again if it just cliff-dives to $3,500 which Gareth Soloway is not ruling out as a possible target.
Right now I'm sitting almost 100% in auto-rolled 13 week T-Bills, waiting for momentum to come back to some sector, but prepared to sit. I still have physical gold, the Junior Gold Miners, I-Bonds. I'm enjoying having a temporary holiday from being invested, it's calming.
I am noticing the historic drawdown in the HBPP and Golden Butterfly, a good sign for new entrants.
Re: Tactical Asset Allocation + HBPP an intriguing combo
viewtopic.php?p=254376#p254376
Possible sell signal end of August if the S&P500 falls more.
Since my last update, I'm still beating the 60/40. If we're going into a recession, that outperformance will intensify. I want to retire next May, I can't be having a deep drawdown now.
Possible sell signal end of August if the S&P500 falls more.
Since my last update, I'm still beating the 60/40. If we're going into a recession, that outperformance will intensify. I want to retire next May, I can't be having a deep drawdown now.
Re: Tactical Asset Allocation + HBPP an intriguing combo
My four tactical models and their percentages, published at AllocateSmartly.com
12% Bold Asset Allocation (aggressive variant)
24% Hybrid Asset Allocation (balanced variant)
12% Risk Premium Value (best value)
12% Paul Novell's SPY-COMP
Also buy & hold
17% Gold and miners
1% equities in my wife's TIAA which I don't touch ever
22% Cash, I-Bonds, ST TIPS, ST Corporates, ST Treasuries
The tactical models are all risk-off in cash today except SPY-COMP. If S&P500 closes below 5666 on December 31, that one goes to cash also.
I have to say, I do enjoy the holidays from volatility.
You might notice the lack of long dated bonds; if they start to lead, I will add them. I test my risk-off assets against each other, not just the risk-on ones.
12% Bold Asset Allocation (aggressive variant)
24% Hybrid Asset Allocation (balanced variant)
12% Risk Premium Value (best value)
12% Paul Novell's SPY-COMP
Also buy & hold
17% Gold and miners
1% equities in my wife's TIAA which I don't touch ever
22% Cash, I-Bonds, ST TIPS, ST Corporates, ST Treasuries
The tactical models are all risk-off in cash today except SPY-COMP. If S&P500 closes below 5666 on December 31, that one goes to cash also.
I have to say, I do enjoy the holidays from volatility.
You might notice the lack of long dated bonds; if they start to lead, I will add them. I test my risk-off assets against each other, not just the risk-on ones.
Re: Tactical Asset Allocation + HBPP an intriguing combo
Looks like my tactical portfolio is going 80% risk off for me tomorrow. I devote 60% of the portfolio to tactical, 1% to buy and hold equities... so I will be 13% risk-on.
17% gold
70% is in cash and short term Treasuries (nothing longer than 3 years)
17% gold
70% is in cash and short term Treasuries (nothing longer than 3 years)
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Re: Tactical Asset Allocation + HBPP an intriguing combo
You don’t think this is a case of too many strategies?
(Go ahead, Ocho. Tell me how high it has gone up

. Philip Morris International was up 11% on earnings yeterday. Is it punishing me for selling shares?
Tyler’s ‘Brew the Best Version of the 3-Fund Portfolio’ is making me thirsty
Tyler’s ‘Brew the Best Version of the 3-Fund Portfolio’ is making me thirsty
Re: Tactical Asset Allocation + HBPP an intriguing combo
TBH, I'm lagging the pure S&P500 or Total Stock Market for lo these past 10 years. My returns are more like a 60/40, but less volatility. It has HBPP levels of volatility with 60/40 returns. It's exactly what I was aiming for. But... it's active! You have to close your eyes and TRADE at the end of month, no matter if you want to or not.
Just as GLD, TLT, SPY, in the Permanent Portfolio combine to strengthen it, the idea is to run 3, 5 or even more tactical strategies together, so long as they aren't highly correlated. That gives you a better result in the end for the same reason.
Here's exactly what I use:
24% Hybrid AA Balanced
12% SPY-COMP
12% Bold AA Aggressive
12% Risk Premium Value Best Value
17% gold
1% buy & hold equities (my wife's TIAA)
22% buy & hold cash and short term Treasuries (nothing longer than 3 years)
Backtest of my portfolio going back to 1/1/1988
Just as GLD, TLT, SPY, in the Permanent Portfolio combine to strengthen it, the idea is to run 3, 5 or even more tactical strategies together, so long as they aren't highly correlated. That gives you a better result in the end for the same reason.
Here's exactly what I use:
24% Hybrid AA Balanced
12% SPY-COMP
12% Bold AA Aggressive
12% Risk Premium Value Best Value
17% gold
1% buy & hold equities (my wife's TIAA)
22% buy & hold cash and short term Treasuries (nothing longer than 3 years)
Backtest of my portfolio going back to 1/1/1988
- dualstow
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Re: Tactical Asset Allocation + HBPP an intriguing combo
Interesting. My tax-sheltered account is too small for that*, and I suppose you need a tax-sheltered space to do all that trading.
*It’ll be 8,000 $ bigger tomorrow though.
*It’ll be 8,000 $ bigger tomorrow though.

. Philip Morris International was up 11% on earnings yeterday. Is it punishing me for selling shares?
Tyler’s ‘Brew the Best Version of the 3-Fund Portfolio’ is making me thirsty
Tyler’s ‘Brew the Best Version of the 3-Fund Portfolio’ is making me thirsty
Re: Tactical Asset Allocation + HBPP an intriguing combo
TBH = To Be Honest?ochotona wrote: ↑Tue Dec 31, 2024 9:18 pm TBH, I'm lagging the pure S&P500 or Total Stock Market for lo these past 10 years. My returns are more like a 60/40, but less volatility. It has HBPP levels of volatility with 60/40 returns. It's exactly what I was aiming for. But... it's active! You have to close your eyes and TRADE at the end of month, no matter if you want to or not.
Just as GLD, TLT, SPY, in the Permanent Portfolio combine to strengthen it, the idea is to run 3, 5 or even more tactical strategies together, so long as they aren't highly correlated. That gives you a better result in the end for the same reason.
Here's exactly what I use:
24% Hybrid AA Balanced
12% SPY-COMP
12% Bold AA Aggressive
12% Risk Premium Value Best Value
17% gold
1% buy & hold equities (my wife's TIAA)
22% buy & hold cash and short term Treasuries (nothing longer than 3 years)
Backtest of my portfolio going back to 1/1/1988
I tried to guess but was unsuccessful. That is what I got on a Bing search.
Above provided by: Vinny, who always says: "I only regret that I have but one lap to give to my cats." AND "I'm a more-is-more person."
- dualstow
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Re: Tactical Asset Allocation + HBPP an intriguing combo
yep
and as far as I'm concerned, TLT stood for toilet for most of the years it has sat in my IRA.
and as far as I'm concerned, TLT stood for toilet for most of the years it has sat in my IRA.
. Philip Morris International was up 11% on earnings yeterday. Is it punishing me for selling shares?
Tyler’s ‘Brew the Best Version of the 3-Fund Portfolio’ is making me thirsty
Tyler’s ‘Brew the Best Version of the 3-Fund Portfolio’ is making me thirsty
Re: Tactical Asset Allocation + HBPP an intriguing combo
I'm reposting mathjak107's reply here... because when he refers to "hedge fund strategies" I do believe that he's referring to strategies that use trendfollowing to enter and exit positions. Trendfollowing is at the heart of most Tactical Asset Allocation strategies, which is what this thread was all about originally, and hopefully it still is.mathjak107 wrote: ↑Tue Jan 14, 2025 9:49 am with the newer alternative type investments combined with equities , they likely will run with the ball if stocks are flat .
long term bonds are unreliable as far as protecting stocks as 2022 showed .
they are old school when there was nothing better for the small investor and strategy’s like these alternative funds were only available to the wealthy via hedge funds.
these hedge fund strategies have been used for decades so they are nothing new .
what’s new is the sec approved some of these strategies in 2020 to be offered to the common man via funds and etfs
Some of these hedge funds or CTAs may implement by going long only, some do long-short, some use options, and there are different time-scales from intra-day trades to monthly trades. But they are all active. No one just puts on a position and hopes to wake up in five or ten years with more money in real terms than at the start.
I wouldn't go so far as to say that all static portfolios are doomed - but it looks challenging. It's not even that the HBPP constituents are faulty... it's that holding them all at the same time isn't the best idea. I recently made a simple TAA portfolio for study which over time averaged out to 25% gold, cash, stocks, and long bonds... but from year to year, month to month it was not static. And it beat the HBPP by a couple of hundred basis points. And the timing signals are pretty well known.
Fixed income
https://papers.ssrn.com/sol3/papers.cfm ... id=3631109
Stocks
https://investingforaliving.us/2020/04/ ... tesmartly/
The gold was fixed at 25%.
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Re: Tactical Asset Allocation + HBPP an intriguing combo
the funds AQR have , all use proven strategies that were used for a long long time to hedge equity declines .
they all operate a bit differently and some work better for different purposes .
i find CTA which is relatively new and a highly recommended managed futures fund is more volatile then the biggest one of its kind DBMF . personally i wouldn’t put the same amount in cta as a hedge as i would dbmf since in the reaper there is 3x the money in the managed futures as the equity portion
so managed futures funds are what get matched to leveraged equity and bond funds .
there are long /short and all kinds of other funds that have their own built in yin and yang.
small investors never had these kinds of hedges before .
we had to hope stocks and bonds remained uncorrelated when we needed them most and as luck had it , just when most of us have our portfolios at peak value they both crapped the bed in 2022
for comparison dbmf was up 21.5% in 2022 , tlt down 31.2
they all operate a bit differently and some work better for different purposes .
i find CTA which is relatively new and a highly recommended managed futures fund is more volatile then the biggest one of its kind DBMF . personally i wouldn’t put the same amount in cta as a hedge as i would dbmf since in the reaper there is 3x the money in the managed futures as the equity portion
so managed futures funds are what get matched to leveraged equity and bond funds .
there are long /short and all kinds of other funds that have their own built in yin and yang.
small investors never had these kinds of hedges before .
we had to hope stocks and bonds remained uncorrelated when we needed them most and as luck had it , just when most of us have our portfolios at peak value they both crapped the bed in 2022
for comparison dbmf was up 21.5% in 2022 , tlt down 31.2
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Re: Tactical Asset Allocation + HBPP an intriguing combo
I appreciate it, ocho.ochotona wrote: ↑Tue Jan 14, 2025 10:22 am I'm reposting mathjak107's reply here... because when he refers to "hedge fund strategies" I do believe that he's referring to strategies that use trendfollowing to enter and exit positions. Trendfollowing is at the heart of most Tactical Asset Allocation strategies, which is what this thread was all about originally, and hopefully it still is.
…
I had considered moving his most recent posts to a new thread called “Old Math of the Mountain” rather than have them appear in every traditional pp section. But, no one’s complaining, some have expressed interest and I left it alone since the forum’s usually so quiet.
My philosophy is that craigr was allowed his one heretical (pp) thread at b’heads, but it was limited to that sole thread, and we should probably adopt a similar organization.
. Philip Morris International was up 11% on earnings yeterday. Is it punishing me for selling shares?
Tyler’s ‘Brew the Best Version of the 3-Fund Portfolio’ is making me thirsty
Tyler’s ‘Brew the Best Version of the 3-Fund Portfolio’ is making me thirsty
- mathjak107
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Re: Tactical Asset Allocation + HBPP an intriguing combo
while i agree , it’s very hard not to cross over in to other discussions today in the old guard subjects .
especially because 2022 showed modern day investors just how vulnerable old school thinking has become and new ways of doing things are replacing many ways of the past teachings that were at one time thought to be the best way to do something simply because we had no other ways for the average person to risk parity
the issues investors are concerned about today is the big picture , which is sticky longer term inflation , and rates that reflect the concerns and deficits that just have no way of coming down . interest rate sensitivity does not seem to be the best way to fly fighter cover over a portfolio anymore
i don’t know anyone anymore on any other forums i am in where they follow the Pp today.
in my opinion it’s the buggy whip when the industrial revolution came
especially because 2022 showed modern day investors just how vulnerable old school thinking has become and new ways of doing things are replacing many ways of the past teachings that were at one time thought to be the best way to do something simply because we had no other ways for the average person to risk parity
the issues investors are concerned about today is the big picture , which is sticky longer term inflation , and rates that reflect the concerns and deficits that just have no way of coming down . interest rate sensitivity does not seem to be the best way to fly fighter cover over a portfolio anymore
i don’t know anyone anymore on any other forums i am in where they follow the Pp today.
in my opinion it’s the buggy whip when the industrial revolution came
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Re: Tactical Asset Allocation + HBPP an intriguing combo
Well people who use the pp continue to buy stocks,
And there are non-pp’ers who buy gold. Even bogleheads buy treasuries. (Admittedly, they usually eschew the longest-term bonds).
I’d hate to think we’re buggy whip owners even if we do watch the McLarens and Ferraris of the all-stock portfolio speed by. I’m happy for them.
But I’m also happy for Grinch, who is satisfied with his permanent portfolio.
And there are non-pp’ers who buy gold. Even bogleheads buy treasuries. (Admittedly, they usually eschew the longest-term bonds).
I’d hate to think we’re buggy whip owners even if we do watch the McLarens and Ferraris of the all-stock portfolio speed by. I’m happy for them.
But I’m also happy for Grinch, who is satisfied with his permanent portfolio.
. Philip Morris International was up 11% on earnings yeterday. Is it punishing me for selling shares?
Tyler’s ‘Brew the Best Version of the 3-Fund Portfolio’ is making me thirsty
Tyler’s ‘Brew the Best Version of the 3-Fund Portfolio’ is making me thirsty
- mathjak107
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Re: Tactical Asset Allocation + HBPP an intriguing combo
but big difference between betting so much money on long term treasuries .
if anything most conventional portfolios use total market funds with durations in the 6-7 year range and maybe 5-10% gold .
but they had the same problems in 2022 with conventional investing failing to hold and investors disappointed that they gave up good gains going more conservative only to end up with steep losses anyway as now all assets crapped the bed , not just equities .
kind of paying for insurance and then not being able to collect
if anything most conventional portfolios use total market funds with durations in the 6-7 year range and maybe 5-10% gold .
but they had the same problems in 2022 with conventional investing failing to hold and investors disappointed that they gave up good gains going more conservative only to end up with steep losses anyway as now all assets crapped the bed , not just equities .
kind of paying for insurance and then not being able to collect
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Re: Tactical Asset Allocation + HBPP an intriguing combo
So... this time it's different?
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Re: Tactical Asset Allocation + HBPP an intriguing combo
yep , it’s been different ….as well as the saying , the markets can remain irrational a lot longer then you can remain solvent , means you may not have the time for not being different to show up again
so far in more recent times the only thing that seems to repeat itself is historians …every thing else seems to play out just different enough that whatever asset was expected to run with the ball to prop up equities , didn’t
world wide inflation , and record deficits are a weight .
rates on short term stuff are to high relative to inflation and will likely come down .
historically rates on cash instruments are negative more than positive and right now they are much higher than inflation .
so for the curve to normalize they have to fall.
bonds typically match inflation after taxes and they are pretty much there .
so as things stand it doesn’t look like long term rates are going anywhere except maybe higher as world wide investors want to be compensated more for these deficits that are getting worse and worse .
our deficit is now 40% higher than just a year ago . https://www.cnbc.com/2025/01/14/budget- ... r-ago.html
most experts think bonds will do no better then their interest rate for quite a few years to come .
stocks are not expected to do great either after the run up we had
2022 saw tlt minus 32% , total market fund minus 20% , dbmf managed futures up 23%
the AQR long short fund up 22% in 2022 , the aqr diversify strategies up 9%
which would you have liked as your risk parity hedge to fly fighter cover over your equities and or bonds ?
.
so what’s left is really the alternative investments that make money in totally uncorrelated ways
and while the funds are new since it was only in 2020 the sec agreed to allow all these older strategies to be allowed in funds and etfs .
the strategies have been used for decades by hedge funds to fly fighter cover over there wealthy clients assets
so far in more recent times the only thing that seems to repeat itself is historians …every thing else seems to play out just different enough that whatever asset was expected to run with the ball to prop up equities , didn’t
world wide inflation , and record deficits are a weight .
rates on short term stuff are to high relative to inflation and will likely come down .
historically rates on cash instruments are negative more than positive and right now they are much higher than inflation .
so for the curve to normalize they have to fall.
bonds typically match inflation after taxes and they are pretty much there .
so as things stand it doesn’t look like long term rates are going anywhere except maybe higher as world wide investors want to be compensated more for these deficits that are getting worse and worse .
our deficit is now 40% higher than just a year ago . https://www.cnbc.com/2025/01/14/budget- ... r-ago.html
most experts think bonds will do no better then their interest rate for quite a few years to come .
stocks are not expected to do great either after the run up we had
2022 saw tlt minus 32% , total market fund minus 20% , dbmf managed futures up 23%
the AQR long short fund up 22% in 2022 , the aqr diversify strategies up 9%
which would you have liked as your risk parity hedge to fly fighter cover over your equities and or bonds ?
.
so what’s left is really the alternative investments that make money in totally uncorrelated ways
and while the funds are new since it was only in 2020 the sec agreed to allow all these older strategies to be allowed in funds and etfs .
the strategies have been used for decades by hedge funds to fly fighter cover over there wealthy clients assets
Last edited by mathjak107 on Tue Jan 14, 2025 4:58 pm, edited 4 times in total.
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Re: Tactical Asset Allocation + HBPP an intriguing combo
what are some of these risk parity strategies and funds ?
these are just AQR funds , there are many other funds and etfs out there doing it
Absolute Return Strategy fund
Provides exposure to a highly diversified, broad suite of alternative strategies, while maintaining near-zero correlation to traditional markets
Arbitrage Strategies fund
We offer convertible, merger and event-driven arbitrage strategies, or a diversified portfolio combining these strategies.
Equity Market Neutral fund
Employs a multi-factor, market-neutral investment process based on AQR’s broadest global stock selection capabilities.
Global Macro fund
Invests in major asset classes based on prices and macroeconomic fundamentals, using a variety of quantitative and qualitative inputs.
Managed Futures fund
A collection of strategies that seeks to take advantage of price and fundamental trends in traditional and alternative asset classes.
Opportunistic fund
Identifies securities that show extreme undervaluation based on both our quantitative models, as well as a thorough qualitative review.
Real Return fund
Seeks to provide an inflation-hedging, positive real return through a diverse mix of strategies and assets.
Style Premia fund
Seeks to harvest the return premia from well-known factors such as value, momentum, carry and defensive across asset classes and geographies.
remember these go with your conventional investing , it does not replace it.
everyone needs to read that again ….. these go with your investing and add a layer of uncorrelated assets that seem to be more consistent then counting on the whims of long term treasuries
leveraged risk parity funds like the carolina reaper use a managed futures fund to fly fighter cover .
i added qlenx and qdsnx to my conventional portfolio to add a bit of uncorrelated assets to my equities and bonds
these are just AQR funds , there are many other funds and etfs out there doing it
Absolute Return Strategy fund
Provides exposure to a highly diversified, broad suite of alternative strategies, while maintaining near-zero correlation to traditional markets
Arbitrage Strategies fund
We offer convertible, merger and event-driven arbitrage strategies, or a diversified portfolio combining these strategies.
Equity Market Neutral fund
Employs a multi-factor, market-neutral investment process based on AQR’s broadest global stock selection capabilities.
Global Macro fund
Invests in major asset classes based on prices and macroeconomic fundamentals, using a variety of quantitative and qualitative inputs.
Managed Futures fund
A collection of strategies that seeks to take advantage of price and fundamental trends in traditional and alternative asset classes.
Opportunistic fund
Identifies securities that show extreme undervaluation based on both our quantitative models, as well as a thorough qualitative review.
Real Return fund
Seeks to provide an inflation-hedging, positive real return through a diverse mix of strategies and assets.
Style Premia fund
Seeks to harvest the return premia from well-known factors such as value, momentum, carry and defensive across asset classes and geographies.
remember these go with your conventional investing , it does not replace it.
everyone needs to read that again ….. these go with your investing and add a layer of uncorrelated assets that seem to be more consistent then counting on the whims of long term treasuries
leveraged risk parity funds like the carolina reaper use a managed futures fund to fly fighter cover .
i added qlenx and qdsnx to my conventional portfolio to add a bit of uncorrelated assets to my equities and bonds
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Re: Tactical Asset Allocation + HBPP an intriguing combo
crazy day for the reaper
upro up 5.45%
tyd up 2.89%
dbmf up .11%
upro up 5.45%
tyd up 2.89%
dbmf up .11%
Re: Tactical Asset Allocation + HBPP an intriguing combo
If you do a search there on Permanent Portfolio you will see that there were several topics with it in the titles.dualstow wrote: ↑Tue Jan 14, 2025 11:12 amI appreciate it, ocho.ochotona wrote: ↑Tue Jan 14, 2025 10:22 am I'm reposting mathjak107's reply here... because when he refers to "hedge fund strategies" I do believe that he's referring to strategies that use trendfollowing to enter and exit positions. Trendfollowing is at the heart of most Tactical Asset Allocation strategies, which is what this thread was all about originally, and hopefully it still is.
…
I had considered moving his most recent posts to a new thread called “Old Math of the Mountain” rather than have them appear in every traditional pp section. But, no one’s complaining, some have expressed interest and I left it alone since the forum’s usually so quiet.
My philosophy is that craigr was allowed his one heretical (pp) thread at b’heads, but it was limited to that sole thread, and we should probably adopt a similar organization.
Above provided by: Vinny, who always says: "I only regret that I have but one lap to give to my cats." AND "I'm a more-is-more person."
- dualstow
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Re: Tactical Asset Allocation + HBPP an intriguing combo
Vinny, you’ve made me proud!
. Philip Morris International was up 11% on earnings yeterday. Is it punishing me for selling shares?
Tyler’s ‘Brew the Best Version of the 3-Fund Portfolio’ is making me thirsty
Tyler’s ‘Brew the Best Version of the 3-Fund Portfolio’ is making me thirsty
Re: Tactical Asset Allocation + HBPP an intriguing combo
One of my five strategies went bullish the other day. I only trade it on end-of-month. We shall see.
@mathjak107 Are there other providers for retail hedging other than AQR? They can't be the only ones. I agree totally, the most important thing for retirees is risk-adjusted return. That maximizes safe withdrawal rate.
@mathjak107 Are there other providers for retail hedging other than AQR? They can't be the only ones. I agree totally, the most important thing for retirees is risk-adjusted return. That maximizes safe withdrawal rate.
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Re: Tactical Asset Allocation + HBPP an intriguing combo
Absolutely
Google managed futures etfs
There are so many
My main one is dbmf
Google managed futures etfs
There are so many
My main one is dbmf
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Re: Tactical Asset Allocation + HBPP an intriguing combo
here is another portfolio for those who want long term bonds
the O.P.T.R.A. PORTFOLIO
O.P.T.R.A. --- LOL. "One Portfolio To Rule them All."
72% equities (48% S&P 500, 24% global value)
36% long-term treasury bonds
36% alternatives (18% gold, 18% managed futures)
This allocation is equivalent to a 50/25/25 ratio of stocks/bonds/alternatives with 144% leverage.
What Is It: The O.P.T.R.A. portfolio is an aggressive portfolio that is designed to take advantage of the most recent developments in and availability of diversified ETFs over the past 10-15 years.
It is comprised of five funds in the following nominal proportions: 16% UPRO; 24% AVGV; 24% GOVZ; 18% GLDM; and 18% DBMF. Each of these funds is relatively new. The fund UPRO is a three times leveraged fund based on the S&P 500. The fund AVGV is an Avantis fund of funds that contains all of their world-wide value-tilted funds and is based on sophisticated factor-based algorithms.
The fund GOVZ is a low-cost U.S. treasury strips fund with an average duration of approximately 25 years. The fund GLDM is a low-cost gold fund and the fund DBMF is a fund for managed futures that replicates a SocGen Index.
Most of these funds have only been available for less than 10 years in their current forms.
When the funds are broken out into asset classes and accounting for the effective leverage implied by the holdings in UPRO and GOVZ, the portfolio is expected to model 72% stocks (equivalent to 48% S&P 500 and 24% global value); 36% long-term treasury bonds (equivalent to TLT); and 36% in alternatives represented by GLDM (gold) and DBMF (managed futures). This is effectively a ratio of 50% stocks to 25% bonds to 25% alternatives with leverage of 144/100.
the first link is an excellent video on the portfolio.
i think it could be of interest to those who want deflation protection
https://www.google.com/search?q=optra+p ... BcGDY,st:0
https://portfoliotree.com/portfolios/vi ... f253a3e584
https://www.riskparityradio.com/portfolios
the O.P.T.R.A. PORTFOLIO
O.P.T.R.A. --- LOL. "One Portfolio To Rule them All."
72% equities (48% S&P 500, 24% global value)
36% long-term treasury bonds
36% alternatives (18% gold, 18% managed futures)
This allocation is equivalent to a 50/25/25 ratio of stocks/bonds/alternatives with 144% leverage.
What Is It: The O.P.T.R.A. portfolio is an aggressive portfolio that is designed to take advantage of the most recent developments in and availability of diversified ETFs over the past 10-15 years.
It is comprised of five funds in the following nominal proportions: 16% UPRO; 24% AVGV; 24% GOVZ; 18% GLDM; and 18% DBMF. Each of these funds is relatively new. The fund UPRO is a three times leveraged fund based on the S&P 500. The fund AVGV is an Avantis fund of funds that contains all of their world-wide value-tilted funds and is based on sophisticated factor-based algorithms.
The fund GOVZ is a low-cost U.S. treasury strips fund with an average duration of approximately 25 years. The fund GLDM is a low-cost gold fund and the fund DBMF is a fund for managed futures that replicates a SocGen Index.
Most of these funds have only been available for less than 10 years in their current forms.
When the funds are broken out into asset classes and accounting for the effective leverage implied by the holdings in UPRO and GOVZ, the portfolio is expected to model 72% stocks (equivalent to 48% S&P 500 and 24% global value); 36% long-term treasury bonds (equivalent to TLT); and 36% in alternatives represented by GLDM (gold) and DBMF (managed futures). This is effectively a ratio of 50% stocks to 25% bonds to 25% alternatives with leverage of 144/100.
the first link is an excellent video on the portfolio.
i think it could be of interest to those who want deflation protection
https://www.google.com/search?q=optra+p ... BcGDY,st:0
https://portfoliotree.com/portfolios/vi ... f253a3e584
https://www.riskparityradio.com/portfolios
Re: Tactical Asset Allocation + HBPP an intriguing combo
TAA signals are very unstable. They are flipping back and forth between risk-on and risk-off. Whew. How it will end up by month-end who knows.