Silver

Discussion of the Gold portion of the Permanent Portfolio

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welderwannabe
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Silver

Post by welderwannabe » Mon Dec 19, 2022 12:37 pm

I know this is the gold section, but curious if anyone else also buys silver.

I just did another buy, I like having some. In an SHF scenario may be a little easier to barter with than gold eagles since they are worth less?

Thoughts?
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Re: Silver

Post by Smith1776 » Mon Dec 19, 2022 1:16 pm

welderwannabe wrote:
Mon Dec 19, 2022 12:37 pm
I know this is the gold section, but curious if anyone else also buys silver.

I just did another buy, I like having some. In an SHF scenario may be a little easier to barter with than gold eagles since they are worth less?

Thoughts?
I've held some silver.

It's probably not a necessary holding, but it definitely would be a valuable option for barter during the proverbial SHTF scenario.

Gold, even in its smallest denominations is probably just too valuable for small barter.
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Re: Silver

Post by dualstow » Tue Jan 03, 2023 11:40 am

I am not a silver investor in the sense that I don’t consider it part of the pp, Harry Browne’s previous iterations notwithstanding. And, vp silver I mostly buy to give away (to people who would probably just prefer the convenience of cash O0 ). That said, what remains in my possession I think of as SAVINGS. So much cooler than dirty-smelling linen-and-paper currency.

I bought some silver Britannias.
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Re: Silver

Post by welderwannabe » Tue Jan 03, 2023 11:53 am

My silver maple leafs came in. What beautiful coins. I think they look almost as good as eagle Proofs.
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Re: Silver

Post by Dieter » Tue Jan 03, 2023 12:00 pm

I keep thinking about getting some Silver coins

I did hold a silver ETF for a little bit ten-ish(?) years ago
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Re: Silver

Post by geaux saints » Tue Jan 03, 2023 3:30 pm

I have maybe $200 worth of junk silver I've picked up from various coin dealers who were willing to sell 'em for melt, plus a couple I found in the register when I worked retail as a teenager. Not to be a downer, but the premiums on physical silver make it a non-starter for me as an investment. I wish you success if you decide to pull the trigger, however.
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Re: Silver

Post by welderwannabe » Tue Jan 03, 2023 4:00 pm

geaux saints wrote:
Tue Jan 03, 2023 3:30 pm
Not to be a downer, but the premiums on physical silver make it a non-starter for me as an investment. I wish you success if you decide to pull the trigger, however.
You're right on the premiums. Silver Eagles were close to 100% premium a couple months back. They are still obscene, which is why I went maple leafs...and those were bad enough at close to a 25% premium.
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Re: Silver

Post by dualstow » Tue Jan 03, 2023 4:55 pm

geaux saints wrote:
Tue Jan 03, 2023 3:30 pm
Not to be a downer, but the premiums on physical silver make it a non-starter for me as an investment. I
Totally not a downer. This is the single most important reason why I am not a silver investor. I just figure that whomever I leave the silver to will be better off than with paper cash stored in a box for the same amount of time. But, that could be wrong, too.
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Re: Silver

Post by geaux saints » Wed Jan 04, 2023 6:02 pm

welderwannabe wrote:
Tue Jan 03, 2023 4:00 pm
geaux saints wrote:
Tue Jan 03, 2023 3:30 pm
Not to be a downer, but the premiums on physical silver make it a non-starter for me as an investment. I wish you success if you decide to pull the trigger, however.
You're right on the premiums. Silver Eagles were close to 100% premium a couple months back. They are still obscene, which is why I went maple leafs...and those were bad enough at close to a 25% premium.
100%!? I was thinking the 5.99/OZ over spot APMEX was quoting for junk silver was inflated. I really like Maples for a variety of reasons, so good choice :) . I checked APMEX and I see that they want $7 more for a Silver Eagle than a silver Maple Leaf. Do you know why that is?
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Re: Silver

Post by geaux saints » Wed Jan 04, 2023 6:07 pm

dualstow wrote:
Tue Jan 03, 2023 4:55 pm
geaux saints wrote:
Tue Jan 03, 2023 3:30 pm
Not to be a downer, but the premiums on physical silver make it a non-starter for me as an investment. I
Totally not a downer. This is the single most important reason why I am not a silver investor. I just figure that whomever I leave the silver to will be better off than with paper cash stored in a box for the same amount of time. But, that could be wrong, too.
In the rare coin world there is what is known as a "coffin coin", meaning that the owner overpaid by so much that they are "buried in it forever". That is the first thing that came to mind when welderman told me about the premiums on Silver Eagles. Maybe that's significant maybe it's not ;D
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Re: Silver

Post by SilentMajority » Thu Jan 05, 2023 10:23 am

geaux saints wrote:
Wed Jan 04, 2023 6:02 pm
welderwannabe wrote:
Tue Jan 03, 2023 4:00 pm
geaux saints wrote:
Tue Jan 03, 2023 3:30 pm
Not to be a downer, but the premiums on physical silver make it a non-starter for me as an investment. I wish you success if you decide to pull the trigger, however.
You're right on the premiums. Silver Eagles were close to 100% premium a couple months back. They are still obscene, which is why I went maple leafs...and those were bad enough at close to a 25% premium.
100%!? I was thinking the 5.99/OZ over spot APMEX was quoting for junk silver was inflated. I really like Maples for a variety of reasons, so good choice :) . I checked APMEX and I see that they want $7 more for a Silver Eagle than a silver Maple Leaf. Do you know why that is?
The premium the US mint charges the authorized dealers is outrageous. I think it's $8 or more right now and min buy is 10,000. The criteria to become an authorized dealer is also very steep.

Just a couple years ago the premium to authorized dealers was close to $2 and still considered high. Obv inflation has been a factor here as the cost of minting a coin has gone up. The US mint has some kind of requirement that they can only buy the blanks at a certain price above spot and the mints that supply those blanks have been reluctant to sell at such low prices given the current environment.

Bottom line, ASE's are a rip-off now.

You can get random year Britannia's here for $3.60 over spot (15% premium): https://www.herobullion.com/1-oz-britis ... prices.com

Better is generic rounds like this for $2.60 over spot (11% premium): https://sdbullion.com/1-oz-silver-buffalo-round
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Re: Silver

Post by welderwannabe » Thu Jan 05, 2023 11:02 am

SilentMajority wrote:
Thu Jan 05, 2023 10:23 am
The premium the US mint charges the authorized dealers is outrageous. I think it's $8 or more right now and min buy is 10,000. The criteria to become an authorized dealer is also very steep.

Just a couple years ago the premium to authorized dealers was close to $2 and still considered high. Obv inflation has been a factor here as the cost of minting a coin has gone up. The US mint has some kind of requirement that they can only buy the blanks at a certain price above spot and the mints that supply those blanks have been reluctant to sell at such low prices given the current environment.

Bottom line, ASE's are a rip-off now.

You can get random year Britannia's here for $3.60 over spot (15% premium): https://www.herobullion.com/1-oz-britis ... prices.com

Better is generic rounds like this for $2.60 over spot (11% premium): https://sdbullion.com/1-oz-silver-buffalo-round
I just listened to a podcast about this the other day by some people 'in the know'. Its illegal for the mint to make a profit on the bullion eagles (they are allowed to on the proofs etc). They are selling them to the APs for silver spot + their actual cost. The APs are pocketing this crazy premium.

What I heard is that the mint is making a historically low amount of eagles right now and thats the major cause. Something like half the eagles they made 3 years ago.
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Re: Silver

Post by ochotona » Thu Jan 05, 2023 11:32 am

I bought a 100 oz silver bar for $1600 a few years ago. I have a few silver coins for artistic value, and some SIVR ETF. I'll sell the bar and ETF quickly if we ever get a sharp spike upwards to all time highs, those spikes don't last.
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Re: Silver

Post by welderwannabe » Thu Jan 05, 2023 11:42 am

Ok, I found the link. You can look up Silver Eagle production at the US Mint's site here https://www.usmint.gov/about/production ... lion-sales. However here is the short story

2020 30 Million Silver Eagles Made
2021 28 Million Silver Eagles Made
2022 16 Million Silver Eagles Made

While there has been high demand for Silver Eagles, you can see their production this year was cut in half. Last time it was this low was back in 2019 when precious metals were in the tank (Silver was down to like $13 or $14 bucks) and no one wanted eagles.

This is why the premiums have been so nuts. The mint isnt making enough eagles, and they are the most in demand silver coin.
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Re: Silver

Post by geaux saints » Thu Jan 05, 2023 6:03 pm

SilentMajority wrote:
Thu Jan 05, 2023 10:23 am
geaux saints wrote:
Wed Jan 04, 2023 6:02 pm
welderwannabe wrote:
Tue Jan 03, 2023 4:00 pm
geaux saints wrote:
Tue Jan 03, 2023 3:30 pm
Not to be a downer, but the premiums on physical silver make it a non-starter for me as an investment. I wish you success if you decide to pull the trigger, however.
You're right on the premiums. Silver Eagles were close to 100% premium a couple months back. They are still obscene, which is why I went maple leafs...and those were bad enough at close to a 25% premium.
100%!? I was thinking the 5.99/OZ over spot APMEX was quoting for junk silver was inflated. I really like Maples for a variety of reasons, so good choice :) . I checked APMEX and I see that they want $7 more for a Silver Eagle than a silver Maple Leaf. Do you know why that is?
The premium the US mint charges the authorized dealers is outrageous. I think it's $8 or more right now and min buy is 10,000. The criteria to become an authorized dealer is also very steep.

Just a couple years ago the premium to authorized dealers was close to $2 and still considered high. Obv inflation has been a factor here as the cost of minting a coin has gone up. The US mint has some kind of requirement that they can only buy the blanks at a certain price above spot and the mints that supply those blanks have been reluctant to sell at such low prices given the current environment.

Bottom line, ASE's are a rip-off now.

You can get random year Britannia's here for $3.60 over spot (15% premium): https://www.herobullion.com/1-oz-britis ... prices.com

Better is generic rounds like this for $2.60 over spot (11% premium): https://sdbullion.com/1-oz-silver-buffalo-round
Thank you for the breakdown. Do you think this implies that for some large chunk of the population, it is Eagles or nothing when buying silver bullion?
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Re: Silver

Post by SilentMajority » Fri Jan 06, 2023 9:07 am

welderwannabe wrote:
Thu Jan 05, 2023 11:02 am
SilentMajority wrote:
Thu Jan 05, 2023 10:23 am
The premium the US mint charges the authorized dealers is outrageous. I think it's $8 or more right now and min buy is 10,000. The criteria to become an authorized dealer is also very steep.

Just a couple years ago the premium to authorized dealers was close to $2 and still considered high. Obv inflation has been a factor here as the cost of minting a coin has gone up. The US mint has some kind of requirement that they can only buy the blanks at a certain price above spot and the mints that supply those blanks have been reluctant to sell at such low prices given the current environment.

Bottom line, ASE's are a rip-off now.

You can get random year Britannia's here for $3.60 over spot (15% premium): https://www.herobullion.com/1-oz-britis ... prices.com

Better is generic rounds like this for $2.60 over spot (11% premium): https://sdbullion.com/1-oz-silver-buffalo-round
I just listened to a podcast about this the other day by some people 'in the know'. Its illegal for the mint to make a profit on the bullion eagles (they are allowed to on the proofs etc). They are selling them to the APs for silver spot + their actual cost. The APs are pocketing this crazy premium.

What I heard is that the mint is making a historically low amount of eagles right now and thats the major cause. Something like half the eagles they made 3 years ago.
Ok I did a little reading directly from the US mint last night. I think you're right here or very very close. I'm not sure it's illegal for the mint to make a profit on bullion. But......per what I read from the US mint they sell bullion eagles only to major approved distributors at $2.35 over spot and min sale is 25,000 ounces. These distributors then sell to wholesalers and retailers to get them to the public.

At $2.35 over spot, the mint can't possibly make anything on them. They probably can't get the blanks from the sunshine mint and elsewhere for spot or just over, whatever the mint requires the price to be.

Hence, they are minting a lot less than in previous years.

And the demand for Eagles is quite strong. I was seeing last year that online dealers were buying them back at $7-$8 OVER spot, so you were getting 30% plus premium when you SOLD Eagles back to dealers.

I bought a few hundred in 2020 at $2.50 and then $3.99 over spot. I haven't bought any since then.
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Re: Silver

Post by SilentMajority » Fri Jan 06, 2023 9:17 am

geaux saints wrote:
Thu Jan 05, 2023 6:03 pm
SilentMajority wrote:
Thu Jan 05, 2023 10:23 am
geaux saints wrote:
Wed Jan 04, 2023 6:02 pm
welderwannabe wrote:
Tue Jan 03, 2023 4:00 pm
geaux saints wrote:
Tue Jan 03, 2023 3:30 pm
Not to be a downer, but the premiums on physical silver make it a non-starter for me as an investment. I wish you success if you decide to pull the trigger, however.
You're right on the premiums. Silver Eagles were close to 100% premium a couple months back. They are still obscene, which is why I went maple leafs...and those were bad enough at close to a 25% premium.
100%!? I was thinking the 5.99/OZ over spot APMEX was quoting for junk silver was inflated. I really like Maples for a variety of reasons, so good choice :) . I checked APMEX and I see that they want $7 more for a Silver Eagle than a silver Maple Leaf. Do you know why that is?
The premium the US mint charges the authorized dealers is outrageous. I think it's $8 or more right now and min buy is 10,000. The criteria to become an authorized dealer is also very steep.

Just a couple years ago the premium to authorized dealers was close to $2 and still considered high. Obv inflation has been a factor here as the cost of minting a coin has gone up. The US mint has some kind of requirement that they can only buy the blanks at a certain price above spot and the mints that supply those blanks have been reluctant to sell at such low prices given the current environment.

Bottom line, ASE's are a rip-off now.

You can get random year Britannia's here for $3.60 over spot (15% premium): https://www.herobullion.com/1-oz-britis ... prices.com

Better is generic rounds like this for $2.60 over spot (11% premium): https://sdbullion.com/1-oz-silver-buffalo-round
Thank you for the breakdown. Do you think this implies that for some large chunk of the population, it is Eagles or nothing when buying silver bullion?
I'm not sure i understand the question GS but I think a lot of silver buyers in the US only buy Eagles because they are marketed as the most liquid and there are some legal protections (it's illegal to counterfeit them and i think there's some IRA and tax benefits).

If Eagle premiums are relatively close to everything else, I think buying them is a good option and I have probably close to 500 of them. I've never paid more than $3.99 over spot though and some as low at $1.79 over. I've never paid a 20% premium. I also haven't bought any in 2.5 years.

lowest premium I see now is close to 40%. What a waste.

Here is maple leaves for 15% over: https://silvergoldbull.com/1-oz-2022-ca ... xOfDB8WXww
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Re: Silver

Post by welderwannabe » Fri Jan 06, 2023 9:55 am

SilentMajority wrote:
Fri Jan 06, 2023 9:07 am
I'm not sure it's illegal for the mint to make a profit on bullion.
It is according to the law. Public Law 99-61 is the law that effectively started the American Eagle program, by amending a previous law. Its been amended several times over the years, but the part about the selling price of the coins is pretty much the same. Specific to Silver Eagles the language of note is:

"The Secretary shall sell the coins minted...to the public at a price equal to the market value of the bullion at time of sale, plus the cost of minting, marketing, and distributing such coins"

This is what prevents them from making a profit.
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Re: Silver

Post by SilentMajority » Fri Jan 06, 2023 10:04 am

welderwannabe wrote:
Fri Jan 06, 2023 9:55 am
SilentMajority wrote:
Fri Jan 06, 2023 9:07 am
I'm not sure it's illegal for the mint to make a profit on bullion.
It is according to the law. Public Law 99-61 is the law that effectively started the American Eagle program, by amending a previous law. Its been amended several times over the years, but the part about the selling price of the coins is pretty much the same. Specific to Silver Eagles the language of note is:

"The Secretary shall sell the coins minted...to the public at a price equal to the market value of the bullion at time of sale, plus the cost of minting, marketing, and distributing such coins"

This is what prevents them from making a profit.
Ok thanks for finding that. This really shows that the premiums on other coins is EXTREMELY low. These other mints must be operating at a loss if their new coins get to retailers and get sold to the public at $3 - $4 over spot and free shipping and all that.

When the Gold to Silver ratio gets high I tend to buy silver, usually when it's over 80. I try to find low premium bars or rounds, but sometimes government backed bullion if it's close to the same premium as generic.

You can certainly get some of the premium back when selling (if you ever sell) and who knows, in the future with inflation, the premium on coins might go up a lot more than the base metal. If the cost of minting and all the rest goes up at a faster pace than silver, you might make more money buying a government coin than a bullion bar.

I never paid 20% over spot for an eagle and usually closer to 15%. Last summer I could have sold my Eagles at 30% over spot a lot of places. I didn't sell because I though silver was too cheap and that was a good call.
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Re: Silver

Post by welderwannabe » Fri Jan 06, 2023 10:10 am

SilentMajority wrote:
Fri Jan 06, 2023 10:04 am
Ok thanks for finding that. This really shows that the premiums on other coins is EXTREMELY low. These other mints must be operating at a loss if their new coins get to retailers and get sold to the public at $3 - $4 over spot and free shipping and all that.

When the Gold to Silver ratio gets high I tend to buy silver, usually when it's over 80. I try to find low premium bars or rounds, but sometimes government backed bullion if it's close to the same premium as generic.

You can certainly get some of the premium back when selling (if you ever sell) and who knows, in the future with inflation, the premium on coins might go up a lot more than the base metal. If the cost of minting and all the rest goes up at a faster pace than silver, you might make more money buying a government coin than a bullion bar.

I never paid 20% over spot for an eagle and usually closer to 15%. Last summer I could have sold my Eagles at 30% over spot a lot of places. I didn't sell because I though silver was too cheap and that was a good call.
From what I understand, the margins on bullion products have traditionally been razor thin. Hence why they often charge extra for credit card payments, many still charge for shipping etc. Only recently with this premium explosion have they started making major profits.

The mint has not explained their sudden reduction in output, as another part of the law stated that they had to mint coins sufficient public demand (and they obviously havent been with these premiums), although that section was recently tweaked by adding a sentence such as "as the treasury secretary deems".

One reason I heard for the output reduction, and this is only second hand right now, is that the mint only buys their rounds from ONE company. This company was recently acquired by a firm that also owns an authorized participant, and that firm has been redirecting some of the round manufacturers output to produce private branded products, leaving the US mint with unfilled orders. For example, like APMEX's own silver rounds. Obviously there is a lot more profit on those, and the premium explosion caused by the eagle shortage has allowed them to raise the prices on those private products.

Anyways thats just what I heard, I havent had a chance to dig into it because I don't have a love affair with eagles. Maple Leafs worked out just fine for me, and frankly I think they are a far better looking coin...
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Re: Silver

Post by dualstow » Fri Jan 06, 2023 10:49 am

Not sure if this one has been posted yet
https://coinweek.com/us-mint-news/under ... -u-s-mint/
Let 2023 be the year of LASAGNE
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Re: Silver

Post by welderwannabe » Fri Jan 06, 2023 10:57 am

dualstow wrote:
Fri Jan 06, 2023 10:49 am
Not sure if this one has been posted yet
https://coinweek.com/us-mint-news/under ... -u-s-mint/
Thanks for that, it lines up with what I heard. Glad I wasn't making stuff up for once! >:D
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Re: Silver

Post by SilentMajority » Fri Jan 06, 2023 11:01 am

welderwannabe wrote:
Fri Jan 06, 2023 10:10 am

One reason I heard for the output reduction, and this is only second hand right now, is that the mint only buys their rounds from ONE company. This company was recently acquired by a firm that also owns an authorized participant, and that firm has been redirecting some of the round manufacturers output to produce private branded products, leaving the US mint with unfilled orders. For example, like APMEX's own silver rounds. Obviously there is a lot more profit on those, and the premium explosion caused by the eagle shortage has allowed them to raise the prices on those private products.

Anyways thats just what I heard, I havent had a chance to dig into it because I don't have a love affair with eagles. Maple Leafs worked out just fine for me, and frankly I think they are a far better looking coin...
I think it's the sunshine mint and the industry term is "blanks". Those blanks are turned into "coins" by government mints or "rounds" if they are not government backed.

This is what I was sloppily saying earlier, the sunshine mint can't make money selling the blanks to the US mint because the price the mint will pay is lower than the price the private companies will pay for them. At least this is what I was hearing from people in the community last year.

I also think the Eagles are lame. I did get the WW2 7th anniversary proof 2 years ago direct from the mint and the "pride of two nations" collaboration with the Royal Canadian mint. The two coins from that collection are stunning. Just stunning and better looking than anything else I own, whether silver or gold.
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Re: Silver

Post by welderwannabe » Fri Jan 06, 2023 11:04 am

If you're bored out of your skull, this is the discussion I heard about it recently.

https://youtu.be/9nsVdDC0OIM
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Re: Silver

Post by SilentMajority » Fri Jan 06, 2023 11:32 am

SilentMajority wrote:
Fri Jan 06, 2023 11:01 am
welderwannabe wrote:
Fri Jan 06, 2023 10:10 am

One reason I heard for the output reduction, and this is only second hand right now, is that the mint only buys their rounds from ONE company. This company was recently acquired by a firm that also owns an authorized participant, and that firm has been redirecting some of the round manufacturers output to produce private branded products, leaving the US mint with unfilled orders. For example, like APMEX's own silver rounds. Obviously there is a lot more profit on those, and the premium explosion caused by the eagle shortage has allowed them to raise the prices on those private products.

Anyways thats just what I heard, I havent had a chance to dig into it because I don't have a love affair with eagles. Maple Leafs worked out just fine for me, and frankly I think they are a far better looking coin...
I think it's the sunshine mint and the industry term is "blanks". Those blanks are turned into "coins" by government mints or "rounds" if they are not government backed.

This is what I was sloppily saying earlier, the sunshine mint can't make money selling the blanks to the US mint because the price the mint will pay is lower than the price the private companies will pay for them. At least this is what I was hearing from people in the community last year.

I also think the Eagles are lame. I did get the WW2 7th anniversary proof 2 years ago direct from the mint and the "pride of two nations" collaboration with the Royal Canadian mint. The two coins from that collection are stunning. Just stunning and better looking than anything else I own, whether silver or gold.
Ok they mention the sunshine mint in D's article and they're calling them "planchets". I've heard that term a lot, fancy.
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